BANDWAGON KNICK
Bandwagon Knick
Milwaukee 114 New York 107: Dagger
I predicted this would be a difficult one to win for the Knicks, because of matchups and the Bucks' style of play. But when Andrew Bogut had to leave the game early with a migraine, a golden opportunity presented itself to the Knicks. One that they proceeded to squander in the most dispiriting way possible.
In the first half, things mostly went according to plan. The Knicks had twice as many free throws, and only one turnover. Brandon Jennings seemed a bit too anxious to make a splash on Broadway, demonstrating questionable shot selection and missing 7 of 8 shots. Without Bogut in the game, rebounding was mostly even. The Knicks did a good job of adjusting to the Bucks' overplaying and ran back door plays and got to the rim easily with Bogut's absence. The only major red flags were the Knick's own soft defense, which gave up 54 first half points, and an 18 point first half from Ilyasova, who hustled and played with more swagger than all the Knicks combined.
It was one of those halves that was a portent of very bad things to come, given how flat the team felt even with a 59 point half and 5 point lead. Sure enough, the Bucks made their run in the 3rd quarter. The Jennings storyline gained obvious traction with his scoring burst to put the Bucks up for good, but the real damage was done by the more aggressive defense on the ball by the Bucks, which produced 10 second half turnovers, many of them in a stretch spanning most of the 3rd quarter and part of the 4th. Additionally, the Bucks seemed to get every loose ball even when the Knicks were able to get stops. By the time the dust cleared, the Bucks were up by 13 and managed to repel a couple of Knick runs to pull out the win.
Unlike other tough or overwhelming losses where some excuse could be conjured, no matter how weak (on the road, second of a back to back, injured players, mid-season blues, etc etc), this one was the most painful yet, because of how inexcusable it was. Playing at home, against a team that suddenly lost its best player -- a team with very solid, well-coached players but hardly overwhelming talent -- the Knicks didn't play with urgency and were outhustled and outworked. This wasn't a star vehicle where the fans at the Garden could begrudgingly accept that the other team simply had a difference making player or two that would eventually shut the door on the home team. Every "loud" hustle play seemed to be made by the Bucks, and the Garden crowd let the Knicks know how poorly they thought of the effort, unleashing the loudest boos of the season.
Notes:
* Part one of Nate as starting PG yielded mixed results. He was mostly restrained on the offensive end and managed to get to the rim and FT line in the second quarter as the Knicks erased an early 10 point deficit. Ball movement was not especially good while he was on the floor, but the Bucks deserve some credit for that with their defense. In the fourth quarter, Nate ran the pick and roll with Lee particularly well as the Knicks rallied, a very encouraging sign. He did not shoot well from the perimeter, though, and most difficult to accept were the 3 pointers he gave up on slow close-outs (3 to Charlie Bell and 1 to Jennings).
* D'Antoni expanded his rotation slightly to make room for 3 guards (Nate, Duhon, Hughes) in a sort of committee arrangement. Duhon, in particular, acquitted himself well in his limited minutes on both ends of the floor, and Hughes was strong in the first half, less so in the second. The 3 guard arrangement did mean Jeffries got a relatively paltry 13 minutes in the first half and 27 for the game, after averaging over 35 minutes in the last month.
* Speaking of Jeffries, he had his share of hustle plays and good help on defense...but this was his worst game in some time, and he was on the floor for a good deal of the third quarter meltdown. The Bucks were a particularly bad matchup because Jennings is too quick for him at the point, and the Bucks wings and frontline players were often too strong and frequently muscled him out of the way on the boards and on screens. He made a couple of 3 pointers in the 3rd quarter to keep the team in the game, but then became a bit too enamored with the shot, taking (and missing) 2 more jumpers in the last minute and a half to enable the Bucks to build their lead entering the final period.
* I try to avoid commenting on officiating or attributing losses or wins to calls, but the game became much more physical in the second quarter and the officials largely chose to swallow their whistles, with sometimes comical results on both sides. Though the Knicks certainly got their licks in, the physical play favored the Bucks, who looked more comfortable being physical on defense. The Knicks are simply not a strong physical team, and the lack of whistles also meant the Knicks had a hard time drawing fouls that could build on their early free throw advantage.
* Al Harrington continues to be essential and maddening in equal parts, and is transforming into an increasingly slower and more labored version of the essential and the maddening. His outside shooting got the team back in the game, but he struggled to convert inside all night long, bothered by the physical interior defense of the Bucks. He still managed 22 points (on 20 shots) and 8 rebounds, but seemed a step slow relative to the more engaged Bucks.
* David Lee had his usual monster stat line with 32 points on 18 shots, 15 rebounds and 3 assists. I was a bit intemperate on twitter in the wake of the loss and declared the offensive statistics misleading in light of a lackluster defensive effort and some damaging turnovers (4 in the second half, including two unsightly ones in the lane on drives, both induced by Buck defender extraordinaire Mbah a Moute). Upon reflection, David had a terrific game...but he couldn't stop the bleeding once it started, and missed several crucial rebounds on the Bucks' end that allowed them to gain crucial additional opportunities when the team was trying to rally.
* Gallo looked slow, almost leaden, and overly deferential when the Bucks crowded him on his shot, and he missed 4 of 6 free throws. D'Antoni in the post game conference indicated Gallo needed to create more opportunities for himself, and not pass up the ones that were there when he shook his defender. Whether he's hit a wall, his back is acting up, or he's simply navigating slowly to the next step in his evolution as an NBA player, his struggles are painfully apparent right now, and it may require the all-star break for him to clear his head and go back to playing more instinctively.
* While I referred to the Bucks' modest talent earlier, I don't mean to slight them in any way in terms of their ability to win the way they did last night. They've been involved in tightly contested games with some very tough teams, and it was easy to see that when the Knicks were able to get the lead down in the 4th quarter, the Bucks had a level of composure that's been missing from the Knicks too often in close games. Ilyasova and Mbah a Moute were outstanding, and Warrick and Delfino also made several big plays. They may very well continue their credible challenge for the final playoff spot in the East late into the season, contrary to the claim I made in my preview. (The Bucks are extremely well served by two outstanding blogs, BrewHoop and Bucksketball -- both great reads that I enjoy following)
* D'Antoni was miked up for the game and MSG captured every bit of his anger and frustration in the third quarter with the sagging energy of his team -- he looked a hundred times more passionate than the players on the floor. The post game press conference was more of the same: though he always maintains a certain level of calm and tries to express as much of the positive as he can, his frustration was as evident as it has been all season. He parried largely tactical questions about lineups and Nate's performance as a point guard, and kept lamenting the lack of spirit and something greater in the performance of the team (as a *team*) that can get them to win games they need to win.
On to the Cavaliers tonight, who'll probably get their 11th straight without too much of a problem at home. It would be just like the Knicks to show more effort and passion in a long shot game like this one, rather the far more winnable and important game the night before, but I'll take whatever they can provide at this point.
Wizards Notes, Bucks Preview, and Thoughts On The Point Guard Conundrum
The win over the Wizards looked very much like the loss to the Timberwolves over the weekend -- the home team punching and counterpunching and staying with a road team that had played a lot of games in a few days, until the road team ran out of gas. (And yes, I know using a boxing metaphor to describe an 88 possession game with big stretches of listless play from both teams is pushing it). It was still nice to see the Knicks come to life, and while everyone is talking about Nate Robinson playing well enough to take over the starting role at point guard, Al Harrington's return was huge, and his 2 three pointers in the third quarter to give the Knicks the lead for good were probably the biggest shots of the game.
A few other notes:
* Knicks made half of their three pointers, and got 37 shots at the rim. Though they could have done a better job of finishing close to the basket (59.5%), much of that was Jared Jeffries' overambitiousness with a few attempted folllow-baskets that he may have been better advised to tip to teammates. Nate had 4 of his 10 makes at the rim, an excellent ratio that I hope he carries over to his new starting role.
* Fifteen combined free throws for the *game* from both teams, which doesn't exactly speak to the willingness of either team to be physical. (during the Wizards' win over the Knicks last Saturday, they didn't attempt their 3rd FT until the second half either)
* One of Harrington's pet plays is a spinning dribble head on into traffic that elicits howls of anguish from a loud subset of Knick fans, probably because it's an all or nothing play that's just as likely to end in an ugly turnover as it is to produce a basket. (It is also such a heads down play that no matter how many opposing players collapse to stop the drive, the idea of open teammates receiving a pass is purely theoretical). Imagine this type of drive with Al's shaky knees, and it becomes a high wire act with lead boots. And yet. When he did get a layup toward the end of the 3rd quarter on one of these drives, I was inexplicably happy. Maybe because it signaled a willingness on the part of the Knicks to finally start taking it to the basket and not settle for jumpshots. You take what you can get and worry about the style points some other time.
* Nate had a very good all-around game and had only 2 turnovers, but they were two of the louder turnovers in the game -- one an attempt to thread the needle on the fastbreak into a crowd of 3 defenders that Magic himself couldn't have pulled off, the other a lazy pass in a half court set that was stolen by Randy Foye. Give Nate credit for this, though -- on the second turnover, he hustled back to take the ball away from Foye on a driving layup, and managed to keep the ball inbounds and recover it. It was a fantastic display of athleticism on the part of Nate, except unlike the last time he pulled off something similar at home (his fastbreak block of Rondo in November), he didn't preen to the crowd. Just dribbled it down the court to reset the offense. Nice.
* The Wizards have a lot of good players capable of making plays that make you wonder how the team can be struggling the way it is. Wednesday night it was Blatche and Haywood that took turns carving up the Knicks, until the team as a whole wilted in the face of the Knick second half run. The Knick run (or Wizard collapse depending on your inclination) is documented in full by Kyle at Truth About It, and he was none too happy about it. (A very similar sequence could have been constructed for the Knicks' collapse against the Wolves last Sunday, except it would have mainly consisted of Love and Jefferson putting up baskets against the Knick frontline).
Changing of the Point Guard: A Closer Look
The big news from an otherwise lackluster mid-season game between the Knicks and Wizards was the demotion of Chris Duhon, something many Knick fans have been clamoring for almost the entire season. Based on shooting alone (32 percent in the month of January), Chris has been digging a pretty deep hole for himself. Yet D'Antoni continued to defend him as the starting PG, which led to some gentle mocking in the press ("he does everything well but shoot!").
Upfront I can say that I've always felt Chris is a backup and not starter-level point guard in the league; however, for this team and the type of offense D'Antoni likes to run, maintaining him as a starter was a reasonable position, given the lack of alternatives. Nate has not had as good a season as last year (the odd 41 point game notwithstanding), and only recently has he shown signs of paying attention to all the details of the game necessary to earn major minutes. Hughes has shown signs of getting worse after each injury and brings his own issues with his extremely ineffiicient shooting, and iike Nate is a volume shooter who can quickly shoot his team out of a game. And Toney Douglas still can't seem to use the limited minutes he's gotten so far to show that he can be even a reasonable backup playmaker.
The flip side of poor volume shooting is extreme timidity in shooting and playmaking when the first few shots don't fall, which has been Duhon's problem in his extended slump. Even though Duhon does other small things well (particularly on defense as part of the various zones and help defenses the Knicks run), many fans can't see past the lack of confidence Duhon projects, whether it's coming up short on his 3 point shots or being unable to finish at the rim. As a result, his demotion has been greeted with hosannas from people that felt a benching was overdue, including voices as sober and rational as Knickerblogger.
The only issue I would take with the angle taken on Duhon's demotion is that this isn't quite the sudden move it's been portrayed as -- D'Antoni has been gradually tinkering with Duhon's playing time, and coming to realize that the same player he played for an average of 38 to 40 minutes the first 3 months of last season doesn't always warrant extended PT. Last season, Duhon's games with limited minutes were almost exclusively injury related; this season, D'Antoni has kept Duhon's minutes in the 30 to 35 minute range when there are other alternatives (Hughes early in the season, Robinson more recently), because he realizes he can only get so much mileage from him.
Still, 30 + minutes from a 30% shooting guard is a lot of minutes, but as long as D'Antoni was committed to a tight rotation, he was willing to live with the shooting if Duhon's playmaking and other modest contributions were positive. I didn't have any issue with this because Duhon generally didn't do anything to *hurt* the team as part of the starting unit; the team's recent troubles were more related to how poorly the second unit played, and how poorly the team finished games.
I looked more closely at how Chris' contributions in the starting lineup broke out by using numbers from popcornmachine.net to see how he fared in the first and second halves of recent games. Duhon as a starter typically plays most of the first quarter (8-9 minutes), then returns in the second quarter for the last 4 to 6 minutes. The table below shows Duhon's +/- for the 2 first half segments he plays, and presents an overall +/- number for the second half, since I was mainly interested in evaluating how he performed as a starter at the beginning of games. (Thus for the table below, a +4/-2 means the lineup he played with registered a +4 for the first quarter minutes he played, and a -2 for the second quarter minutes he played).
| Chris Duhon: Opponent | 1st Half +/- | 1st Half Ast/TO | 2nd Half +/- | Minutes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | +4/-2 | 3 AST/0 TO | -2 | 32 |
| TOR | -15/-5 | 2 AST/1 TO | +18 | 37 |
| DET | +1/-11 | 0 AST/2 TO | -3 | 19 |
| DET | +2/+9 | 5 AST/3 TO | -8 | 20 |
| LAL | +1/+2 | 5 AST/0 TO | -4 | 31 |
| DAL | -2/-10 | 0 AST/0 TO | -21 | 35 |
| MIN | +26/-4 | 7 AST/0 TO | +2 | 31 |
| TOR | +6/-8 | 5 AST/1 TO | -10 | 35 |
| WAS | -8/+11 | 4 AST/1 TO | -5 | 37 |
| MIN | +7/0 | 2 AST/3 TO | -9 | 35 |
| WAS | -1/-3 | 2 AST/2 TO | DNP | 13 |
Taking into account the issues and noise surrounding using raw +/- numbers, there are some interesting things I took away from this snapshot of Duhon's last 11 games as a starter:
* With the exception of an outlier game like Dallas, where everyone played as poorly as they possibly could, Duhon has generally had a segment of positive play in the first half as a starter. Given this is +/- we're talking about, of course it isn't all him: having David Lee as one of your teammates, who tends to start strongly does help. But in 7 of the 11 games, his unit has been positive, and in 8 of those games, he's registered at least 2 assists with 1 or no turnovers. This is the aspect of his play, along with the contributions of defense, that led the coach to continue to support him. In his worst half (the first Toronto game), he rebounded in the second half with a +18.
* The second half of games...now there's the issue. With the exception of the Toronto and Minnesota games, it's been more unrelentingly ugly. The Knick coaching staff is a big proponent of plus/minus to evaluate situational lineups and matchups, and they had to notice this, which is why even before last Wednesday's game (where Chris was a DNP for the 2nd half), D'Antoni sat him for significant stretches of the second half in both Detroit games when his turnover count was high.
* One thing not evident in the numbers but increasingly apparent in the recent slump is Duhon's diminishing energy on defense as well as offense. He's one of the better help defenders on the team, and good at pursuit around screens, but against the Wizards and Wolves his pursuit of his man around screens has looked a step slow, and his attention span on switches (though not nearly as volatile as Nate's) seems to waver more.
* I look forward to an energized Nate and Larry taking advantage of their newly awarded opportunities to energize the offense. I still wonder (long term) how Nate will be used against longer teams when he can't be "hidden" as easily, even in a zone where he may have to close out on much taller shooters. Hughes should be better in this respect, but his strengths are best employed in straight man to man, where he can focus on the tendencies of his opponent and play passing lanes (in zones he sometimes loses his man, as he did during the Wizards game when Nick Young got free for a 3 in the first half).
* I predict Duhon will be the most professional of D'Antoni's various doghouse inhabitants, but I do hope, most of all, that the exile lights a spark in him. He is still the best playmaker on the team, and he is not as bad a shooter as he's been for most of the season. As much as I want to believe a Nate/Larry/Toney triumvirate will give the team a new identity and a fresh start, it's more realistic to expect that this will be a shuffling of the usual deck chairs, with some wild highs and lows.
Knicks vs Bucks, 7:30pm, MSG
Tonight's game against the Bucks gives the Knicks an opportunity to avenge one of their worst early season losses -- the loss to the Bucks as part of the Knicks' 1-9 start painted a bleak picture for the season at the time, and there may not have been a first half all season where the Knicks were so throughly defeated by the second quarter (when they fell behind by over 30 points). The Bucks had a rough stretch after their strong season start, including a brutal West Coast road trip, but they've recovered well and prior to their last clobbering by Orlando, had won 5 of 7 games.
I'm not sure I see the Bucks as a playoff team relative to the other teams fighting for playoff seeds, but they are a very, very difficult matchup for the Knicks. Bogut is the kind of big man who gives David Lee fits, and unlike the Bynums and Haywoods of the world, he is much better with the ball and in handling double teams, meaning the Knicks' zones and help can only do so much. Milwaukee is not a great offensive team, but they have a very good turnover differential and rebound well (two big Knick weaknesses). Jennings has cooled off substantially after his hot start but still poses plenty of problems with his quickness and playmaking, and Ridnour is having a career year -- he'll bust any zones the Knicks try to run pretty quickly.
The Bucks do not get to the free throw line though, and are one of the most foul-prone teams (their league-bottom free throw differential surprised me at how severe it was). If the Knicks can get positive offensive contributions from Harrington and Nate (the players most likely to draw fouls) and keep the Bucks from getting off to the same start they did in the previous game, tonight's game should be a good one.
The Knicks In Transition: Why It's Not Just About Running the Break
What caught my eye is how poorly the Knicks fared in Krolik's high level analysis. You don't have to go much further back than the last week of games to know the Knicks haven't exactly been a model for any kind of offense lately, running or otherwise, but putting aside the gallows humor, some of the specifics of John's analysis weren't consistent with my observation of the Knicks all season. So I thought I would look at some numbers of my own to see if maybe I had been missing something.
Before I go on, I do need to provide some qualifiers. Knick fans and Cleveland fans, whether they like it or not, have been positioned as adversaries in too many online discussions because of the whole issue of Lebron's free agency, which conjures up a whole bucket of issues around the self-image of the cities (and their respective fans). I like John's blog precisely because he's so level-headed given the heated rhetoric surrounding all things Lebron, but such is the pervasive noxiousness of 2010 Lebron speculation that even he can't resist getting in a (slight) dig at New York based on the conclusions provided by his data.
I'm not responding because I feel any need to support New York as a free agent destination or defend the suitability of the coach's system for certain superstars; I'm responding strictly because some of the issues John has raised are interesting to think about. I'll let others continue to speculate endlessly on all things Lebron. (For what it's worth, my personal position is that Lebron is a low probability opportunity for the Knicks, and to the degree I think about what to do with the cap space that opens up this summer, I mainly concern myself with scenarios for trades and the acquisition of second tier free agents who can be acquired for less than max money).
Now that we're done with that, let's look at what John did in his blog post. He decided to use the rankings of NBA teams for pace and fastbreak points to get a very basic snapshot of what he calls "running efficiency". Right off the bat, I saw a problem with this approach, mainly because the Knicks are dead last in fastbreak points. Given the Knicks are one of the fastest paced teams in the league (even with their decision to slow down the offense in December in the wake of a very slow start), such low production of fastbreak points generates the conclusion that the Knicks are getting terrible returns on their fast pace of play -- which is indeed what Cavs: the Blog's first table concludes (it's worthwhile to sneak a peek at the first table in the blog post if you haven't already done so).
My first issue with this mode of analysis is that fastbreak points aren't well defined (I've seen them defined as baskets scored within a range of 6 to 8 seconds with no clock stoppage, presumably not including scores after an offensive rebound), and there isn't a lot of information out there about the nature of fastbreak possessions, nor is there much historical tracking. The best discussion of fastbreak points I could find is a 2 year old article on 82games.com -- which found some interesting trends, but the primary predictive value for fastbreak points seems to come from fastbreak *differential*, or net fastbreak points (the difference between your team's fastbreak points and the opponent's).
The other issue I have with using fastbreak points as a loose barometer for efficiency is that a team like the Knicks may not score on many quick possessions that meet the definition of "fastbreak", but they may *still* shoot early in the shot clock or soon after transition opportunities generated by rebounds and turnovers -- in other words, they still generate points commensurate with their pace, and counting only fastbreak points understates what they do. (Here's the current ranking of teams based on fastbreak points)
I decided to assemble John's table with a different statistic in place of fastbreak points -- not because it's a better alternative, but because it would provide another snapshot that might be a useful contrast. Specifically, 82games.com collects information on percentage of shot attempts taken by teams at certain points in the shot clock (0-10 seconds, 11-15 seconds, etc), as well as shooting percentage on those shot attempts, and points generated. (you can see an example here - look at the table titled "Shot Clock Usage") I ranked the teams based on the points they generated on shot attempts within the first ten seconds of the shot clock. Here's a table that summarizes where the teams stand on points produced on "quick shots":
| Points on Shots <10secs | |
|---|---|
| GSW | 41.5 |
| PHO | 39.5 |
| MEM | 36.9 |
| PHI | 36.5 |
| ATL | 36.4 |
| DEN | 36.2 |
| NYK | 36.1 |
| MIN | 36 |
| LAL | 35.2 |
| SAC | 35 |
| HOU | 34.7 |
| IND | 34.5 |
| NOH | 34.2 |
| ORL | 33.8 |
| OKC | 33.6 |
| MIL | 33.6 |
| CHI | 33.4 |
| WAS | 31.9 |
| LAC | 31.8 |
| UTH | 31.5 |
| BOS | 31.3 |
| TOR | 31 |
| DAL | 30.9 |
| SAS | 29.9 |
| DET | 29.1 |
| MIA | 28.8 |
| NJN | 28.4 |
| CLE | 27.6 |
| CHA | 26.6 |
| POR | 24.3 |
Right away you can see the Knicks suddenly vault to the top ten in the league if you expand the definition of fast paced offense to encompass shots taken early in the shot clock. I understand this poses a different set of problems, since not everyone will consider a shot attempt at, say, the 9-10 second mark to be a "transition" or "quick" shot attempt. But shot attempts in the first 10 seconds seem to represent the teams fairly based on their pace of play in most cases, and definitely encompass fastbreak points. For example, the first incarnation of the iconic Seven Seconds or Less Phoenix Suns team coached by D'Antoni took a remarkable 48% of their shots within the first ten seconds, and Golden State Warriors teams the last few years have generally been in the 44-46% range. (Last year's Knicks were at 45%, while this year's group is at 38%)
Back to John's original table, and adapting it for "quick shots" rather than fastbreak points. Below is a revised table of...let's call it "quick shot" efficiency for teams. To explain again, I used John's same methodology and took the ranking of a team based on their Pace, and subtracted their ranking based on points produced on "quick shots" -- shots taken in the first ten seconds. Thus if a team is the 20th slowest team in the league, but produces the 2nd most points based on "quick shots", they score as a +18. Similarly, if a team is 2nd in Pace but only 20th in points produced on "quick shots", they are a -18. Here's the table (10SOL stands for 10 seconds or less):
| 10SOL Efficiency | |
|---|---|
| ATL | 20 |
| PHI | 19 |
| NOH | 7 |
| MEM | 6 |
| DET | 4 |
| HOU | 2 |
| OKC | 2 |
| MIA | 2 |
| PHO | 1 |
| ORL | 1 |
| BOS | 1 |
| GSW | 0 |
| LAC | 0 |
| SAS | 0 |
| POR | 0 |
| DEN | -1 |
| NYK | -1 |
| CLE | -1 |
| LAL | -2 |
| WAS | -2 |
| DAL | -2 |
| CHA | -3 |
| MIN | -4 |
| SAC | -4 |
| MIL | -4 |
| CHI | -6 |
| UTH | -6 |
| NJN | -9 |
| IND | -10 |
| TOR | -12 |
As with John's table, Atlanta and Philadelphia are still way beyond most of the other teams, and New Orleans fares well too. However, teams like Charlotte and Dallas and Cleveland sink to a middle tier with very little separation, and the Knicks are no longer at the bottom, but part of a big group of 16 teams between +2 and -2. I would conjecture that teams like Charlotte and Dallas are good at producing fastbreak points relative to their pace, but once they slow down even slightly, they tend to be most productive later in the shot clock. One other data point that struck me: Toronto's bottom ranking despite being one of the leaders in overall offensive efficiency. Presumably they do very well at producing points later in the shot clock, much less so in the first ten seconds.
Another (geeky) point that should be made is that using ranking differentials to produce this table is probably overstating differences a little between the teams. But I feel comfortable making the point that while the Knicks are a middling offense at best and were wisely slowed down by the coach because they don't have the personnel to be a strong running team... they're not quite the train wreck depicted in Krolik's original post. Especially if you take a more expansive definition of what a fast paced offense entails. In fact, they do pretty well relative to the rest of the league on "quick shots"...they're the only sub-.500 team along with the Warriors in the top ten in shooting percentage in this area:
| eFG% - 10 seconds or less | |
|---|---|
| CLE | 58.3 |
| BOS | 57.7 |
| NYK | 56.8 |
| ATL | 56.2 |
| MEM | 56.2 |
| ORL | 56 |
| UTH | 56 |
| POR | 55.9 |
| PHO | 55.8 |
| GSW | 55.7 |
Cleveland's shooting percentage is very good, but they're 29th in the league in percentage of shot attempts taken in the first ten seconds, given their preference to run at a slower pace. It's logical the Knicks fare well in this category (and in points produced), given their tendency to take trailing threes in transition (Gallinari most effectively). David Lee has also shown an increased tendency over the last 20 games to take a 15 to 20 foot jumper as the trail man on a "soft" fastbreak opportunity.
John made some other interesting points regarding other factors that characterize teams that generate points in transition: 1) generating turnovers and 2) giving up some defensive rebounding in order to optimize the number of transition opportunities. I'm not able to give these categories the kind of scrutiny I did to shooting and points produced earlier, but I admit that at first I was a bit skeptical of what could be produced with this approach, and found myself pleasantly surprised at the correlation he unearthed between slower paced teams and better defensive rebounding numbers. John also puts forth the point that the philosophy of some transition teams may indeed necessitate some sacrifices in defensive rebounding.
I remain somewhat unconvinced, though, that teams like the Knicks and Nets, for example, should get credit for having a transition-oriented philosophy based on poor defensive rebounding numbers -- they're just bad rebounding teams. I've watched the Knicks enough to know that they don't consciously leak out players to create break opportunities any more than any other team (they're not remotely in the Warriors' league), and if anything, their shaky rebounding stems more from size issues and talent, and also their propensity to do a lot of switching on defense and play a variety of zones depending on the matchup.
There's much more that could be said about the Knicks' strengths and challenges in making the D'Antoni system work effectively, but I'll save those for another post. Suffice it to say that I agree with Truehoop that you can't really judge the effectiveness of his system with the personnel he has, and that the coach *has* made some concessions to his talent -- he's slowed the pace down and no longer has the Knicks running at every opportunity, he's implemented different defensive wrinkles using Jared Jeffries as a defensive quarterback, and shortened his rotation. The elements of his system that do remain are the focus on crisp ball movement, and taking quick shots at opportune times -- with a few opponents, the pace is pushed when it's deemed to be advantageous (such as the recent games against the Timberwolves).
These concessions may not be enough to produce a playoff team, and when they don't work the results can be unsightly. (Witness all the wailing on Knick forums that the players are "just chucking", now that the shooting seems to have gone south in the current slump). But these results don't imply the failure or misapplication of a fast paced philosophy. They do speak to the realities of a limited tactical hand when the ultimate goal is cap space and a fresh start after this season.
Raptors 106 Knicks 104: What Defines A Lottery Team Most
I had all sorts of notes in my head about what I saw in the 50 point loss to Dallas and the 27 point win over the Wolves, but I knew that apart from a few tactical observations, you couldn't really get a fair read on this team and its ability to build a head of steam for the second half of the season based on such anomalous games with such weird rhythms. Games like last night's against the Raptors at home-- a better team, but also on the tail end of a back to back -- tend to be more revealing indicators.
Unfortunately, the signs aren't good, and they're getting worse.
The Knicks got off to a great start -- quality ball movement and exceptional shooting (11 of 15 to start), coupled with swarming defense involving a lot of double teams in the post -- quickly produced a 16 point lead. The Raptors started chipping away though, and continued an unfortunate trend of Knick opponents scoring prolifically in the second quarter, typically building on runs against the second unit. (In 13 games in 2010 so far, the Knicks have allowed an average of 27 points in the 2nd, while scoring an average of 21). The Knick lead was cut to 4 at the half, and the loss of Jeffries to a hyperextended knee cast a dark cloud on the Knicks' chances of pulling it out.
To the team's credit, they hung in even as the lead evaporated, thanks to solid scoring from Robinson (14 points, 5 assists), Harrington (20 points, 7 rebounds), and Lee (29 points, 18 rebounds), and effort on defense that was shaky but just good enough to keep the game close. The Knicks also benefited greatly from sloppy play from the Raptors, getting 27 points off of 21 turnovers, holding their own in the paint despite getting outrebounded, and getting to the free throw line and making their FTs.
The Raptors, in turn, got outstanding play from Bosh (27 points, 15 rebounds) and Calderon (12 points, 7 assists, +17), and a wakeup game from Hedo Turkoglu (26 points, 11 rebounds), as well as very timely contributions from bench players (Antoine Wright and Amir Johnson) to make up for an off game from injured Knick-killer Bargnani (who destroyed the Knicks in his last Garden appearance).
It looked grim when the Raps eventually pulled out to 89-83 and 97-92 leads in the fourth quarter, but then came the Knicks' best run since the first quarter, scoring ten straight to take the lead 102-97. Included in that run were a 3 pointer by Harrington off a broken play, and a fantastic pass by Nate on a pick and slip to Lee for a dunk with 1:47 left.
The Raptors responded with eight straight in the next minute and a half to take a 105-102 lead. Here was where you saw all the signs that the Knicks are a middling lottery team that can't pull these types of games out:
1) fouling Hedo beyond the 3 point line (admittedly a dubious call) on a reach-in 28 feet from the basket
2) going one on one on two straight possessions (Nate and Al) with plenty of time left on the shot clock, and coming up empty
3) giving up a tip to an unboxed out Hedo after getting a stop on Bosh, and then giving up a transition basket to Jarett Jack after Al's empty possession
4) missing a layup (Lee) and then giving up a basket to Bosh where he was allowed to drive left by Chandler, with no trap when he got the ball, and inadequate help once he started his move to his preferred side. Jeffries was badly missed here.
Despite all this, the Knicks had one more chance to tie or win after a basket by Lee and a missed FT by Jack, but the last possession with 8 seconds left was the capper to two dreadful minutes of execution. The play was set up for Nate to run off a staggered screen at the foul line and receive the ball for either a drive or kick out. Jack effectively jammed Nate (it looked like a pretty good hold, but one the refs tend not to call), and the closest screener (Chandler) didn't step out to help until it was too late.
Gallo was forced to inbound to Harrington out near the halfcourt line to avoid a violation, and Al drove, bad knees and all, and threw up an ugly runner while bowling over Jack to get a charge and end the game.
Some other observations:
* D'Antoni made the interesting choice to sit Duhon for the final eight minutes and play Nate the entire fourth quarter, even though Nate mostly seemed more interested in creating for himself than playmaking for most of the game. I assume some of this was dictated by the Raptors' size, and some by the need for Nate's offense and athleticism. It paid off for a good portion of the quarter, but I can't help but wonder whether having Duhon for the final couple of possessions (along with Nate) would have produced better shots.
* If Jeffries ends up having to miss extended time with the knee injury, there's no kind way to put it -- the team will lose 50 games at a minimum, especially since he anchors the team's most effective defensive schemes. and manages as best as he can to mitigate the team's lack of interior presence and ability to protect the rim.
* Speaking of injuries, the team made it through around 30 or so games mostly healthy, apart from Nate and Larry Hughes replacing each other on the bench after successive injuries. Every team deals with injuries in a long season, but this team's margin of error for competent play is particularly impacted by injuries, and the team's descent has been hastened by injuries to Wilson, Nate, and maybe most damagingly, Al. All three labored to some degree over the course of last night, with Will looking the best and Nate having his moments though clearly not at his strongest. Al annoys the fan base even when he's healthy with his heads-down offense, but since getting hurt, he's been particularly slovenly on both ends of the floor. His rebounding and offense have suffered, to the detriment of the second unit and the overall offense.
* Jordan Hill continues to get significant minutes, but last night was one of his poorer performances -- missing 4 shots in 7 minutes and looking very shaky on his dribble handoffs and handling the ball when confronted with even mild pressure. Just part of the ups and downs of being a rookie, and he's still likely to get a bigger role in succeeding games with Jeffries' injury.
* Gallo had a very solid game with 18 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists, and 2 steals, and he seemed to be responsible for at least a few more deflections as he capably filled in for Jeffries as a disruptor of sorts on defense. His offense in the second half was less noteworthy, missing 6 of his last 7 shots after making 4 of his first 5. Gallo continues to try and figure out ways to create offense when he's crowded at the 3 point line, and at this point it continues to be a work in progress -- an occasional highlight worthy drive, mixed with more awkward step back jumpers and runners.
* David Lee shot 10 for 16 at the rim, but the rest of the Knicks (at the rim and within 10 feet) shot 12 for 31. Defensively, the Knicks were able to break their recent inability to defend the 3 (apart from a flukish 3 for 3 from Wright), but yielding 54% eFG in a 102 possession game and getting outrebounded isn't the recipe for success most nights. Only the turnovers and the Raptors' exhaustion and wavering attention made this one winnable. Harsh assessment, but this is what happens when the Knicks don't inspire confidence in their ability to control the pace of a game or make stops once their shots aren't dropping.
* This loss hurt a great deal. But cushioning the blow just a little was Hedo's hilarious postgame interview on the Raptors feed. Ball!
On to the next one. I hoped the next four games (Washington twice, Minnesota and Milwaukee) could all be wins, but there are no guarantees anymore. At this point a split of those games, and some measure of good news on the health front, would be welcome. The good news (such as it is) is that there are 2 back to backs in the next week, but after those there are ample days off including the break.
Weekend Recap: Trying To Stay Relevant
Now that probably sounds too grumpy, and it *was* great to see David Lee playing so hard and making his case for an all-star selection on Friday night, to see Wilson Chandler step out of his six game funk with a great effort, to see Jordan Hill hold his own against the Laker frontline, and to see the Knicks execute well for the better part of three quarters against a vastly superior team. The buzz at the Garden over Clinton's halftime appearance on behalf of Haiti, and all the resulting photo-ops with various Knick and Laker players and coaches, was great theater for an important cause. I can admit to an especially warm feeling when the usual sizeable contingent of Laker fans at MSG started the MVP chants for Kobe in the second half, and were met with very loud boos. Go New York Go!
Tie it all together with a pretty bow, courtesy of a flattering New York Times piece on the blossoming of hope in New York for the Knicks, and the encouraging sales of tickets in a recession, and how could you not feel good about the home team, no matter how shaky the team has looked lately? I'm an optimist, and I do like and support the long term plan. And the culture has changed for the better, and the team has played hard since its early season troubles and had success.
But I've maintained my distance from the unbridled optimism some of my fellow fans have in analyzing schedules and tracking all the playoff contenders in the East, living and dying with every Bull and Bobcat and Buck and Sixer win and loss, and hoping for a pox to fall on all of them. That's because the Knicks still haven't convinced me that they're truly gained separation in the race among flawed Eastern Conference teams, and staked a credible and sustainable path toward the eighth seed. As injured and messed up as the Sixers, Pistons, Pacers and Wizards have been, these teams have enough talent to overtake the Knicks in the standings with a modest surge...and suddenly you're one of the worst half-dozen teams in the league.
That's not my cynicism coming out, or an indictment of the coaching staff. I've been witness all season to hypercritical Knick fans not giving the coach or GM a chance, who tend to bring up past narratives of failure and dysfunction and shoehorn this year's struggles too easily into those cookie-cutter narratives. Not to mention fans of other teams who don't bother to track the positives and jump on any public sign of weakness or failure to conjure up their own facile narratives and punchlines ("OMG the Knicks, again, who else?" "Why would Player X ever come to NY?!")
I'm not with the cynics or the haters, not even close. I believe things will be better, are better, and will continue to get better for this franchise. My concerns are short term. Let's put aside the playoff chase for a moment. Can this Knicks team not only continue to show improvement, but stay relevant, and not just be a cursory speed bump for other teams with playoff aspirations with a full half season of games left? Because that's what has me spooked about the plummeting quality of play for most of the last eight games.
*******************************************************************************
Which brings us to the bottom dropping out on Sunday afternoon against Dallas, so quickly after that Laker loss. Yes, it's only one game. And I suspect many Knick fans expected losses in both these games, even with two of Dallas' starters absent, given the Mavericks' impressive depth. And when a loss is this bad, numbers and analysis and probing for causes seem beside the point. The Knicks just failed to show up, and ran into a very hot team bothered by its own abysmal effort against the 76ers two nights before.
But the record setting nature of this loss at home, and how total the surrender was, was an unpleasant reminder of the two worst losses last year that nuked the season for good: back to back 26 and 27 point losses (also at home!) to the Nets (without Devin Harris) and to the Kings (who hadn't beaten any East team before the Knicks, and then proceeded to lose 11 of their next 13 games). Mike D'Antoni's quote after the Kings loss:
"We can't make a shot, we don't have legs to get by people, and we don't have legs to stop anybody...just nobody has any physical presence"
That 10 month old quote travels well to describe what happened against the Mavs, and adequately describes the root of every significant Knick struggle in their most poorly played games the last two seasons. The Knicks have made some strides on defense this season, but even when they play well, they rarely overwhelm opponents. They can't survive mediocre to poor shooting or even slight jumps in their turnovers (as has been the case the last two weeks), and they don't rebound well enough or get to the free throw line enough most games to enable themselves to grind out the occasional off-night.
One of the few things they've done well this season -- defend the 3 point line, where they've been 2nd to the Lakers in effective FG% allowed on 3 pointers -- has taken a nasty nose dive recently. Leave out the two games against Detroit (the 2nd worst 3 point shooting team in the league), and in their last 3 games against the Mavs, Lakers and Raptors, the Knicks have given up 36 made 3 pointers in 67 attempts, a mind boggling 80.6 eFG% (league average is 52.5 eFG%).
When you look at this unholy trinity of poorer shooting, more turnovers, and poorer 3 point defense, it's not a surprise teams are running up bigger leads and getting the Knicks on their heels much more in recent games. And if that wasn't fun enough, health issues with Harrington and Robinson -- two of the best offensive players on the team -- have crippled the offense even more.
There's still a good 39 games left in the season, plenty of time to get out of this tailspin. And last year's twin 20+ point beatings came late in the season, when the Knicks were already looking like an extreme long shot for the playoffs. But the team never recovered any sense of real competitiveness or swagger after those debacles: subsequent "good" games involved coming back from huge deficits to make a game briefly competitive in the 4th quarter (sound familiar?), and there were many bad games before the season mercifully ended.
To avoid a similar descent into the netherzone this season, the coaches have to get the players to remember that they're capable of making stops, that they had a sustained stretch of good defense (albeit against weaker opponents) in December, and that they can't allow offensive struggles (or the occasional outstanding play by the opponent on offense) to dictate their defensive effort. The Dallas game showed the Knicks that even players at the end of their bench can destroy them if they don't have that fundamental commitment to being competitive on both ends of the floor.
It should be a good thing that the Timberwolves are the next opponent on Tuesday night. Such is the state of this Knicks team, though, that a game against the Wolves is far from a sure thing. The Knicks can start their recovery and re-stake their claim to relevancy by giving their fans the confidence they can easily win games like this. Expect a very bumpy ride, though, recovering from the scars of the Maverick beatdown.
Notes On Shaking the Slump; Waking Up Wilson; Lakers Preview
Several writers (New York-based and national) are already speculating about the Knicks' playoff chances versus the other five teams fighting for the final few seeds, but I think it's still too early for that. It's been nice to see the Knicks establish some distance from their 1-9 start, but the last six games have shown that this team still doesn't have much margin for error. Poor, uninspired play puts the team right back where it was at the start of the season -- offensively challenged, floundering, lacking confidence and a strong identity.
The victory against Charlotte at home two weeks ago was a high water mark -- a quality win against a team that has since established itself as the hottest team of 2010, and that win was full of strong and poised performances from virtually every Knick. But since then, the wins have been ugly (76ers, Pistons at home) and the losses have been one-sided and uglier (Raptors, Thunder, Pistons at Detroit). The victory against the Pistons on Martin Luther King Day was a good way to temporarily break the slump, but it continued to illuminate certain issues.
Specifically:
* Guard play is up and down, to put it mildly. Chris Duhon has regressed to his early season shooting struggles, and his turnovers (one of the few things he's done well to minimize) have started to creep up. Nate Robinson hasn't been a paragon of consistency either, and Larry Hughes escaped the doghouse very briefly in a weekend game against the Pistons to give the Knicks nothing. The light at the end of the tunnel here is that Nate had his best all-around game last Monday, looking totally engaged in involving his teammates on offense, and acquitting himself well on defense (a rarity this season). D'Antoni has been parsimonious with his praise for Nate all season, but he firmly (if grudgingly) acknowledged how well Nate played.
* Related to the guard play (though not a guard-specific issue, as we'll see in a minute), turnovers have been an increasing issue for the Knicks. The team has been right around league average all season with a turnover rate (TOR) of 13.5, and had a TOR of 20 or higher only twice in the first 34 games. In the last 7 games, the team has had a 20+ TOR in three of them. Knick opponents scored an average of just under 16 points off Knick TOs in the first 34 games; they're scoring closer to 19 points off those TOs the last seven games.
* In line with the ragged play of the last few games, the players are getting lazy fouls more often and getting into foul trouble. Though overall fouls haven't spiked up dramatically, several of the games have had at least 2 core Knicks with four or five fouls. Jeffries has always been foul prone, but the issues have extended to Lee, Chandler and even Nate occasionally. For a team with a short rotation, the foul issues make things that much worse.
* Duhon is everyone's favorite scapegoat, as he is the point guard, but the player that's caught my eye for up and down play recently has been Chandler. He seemed to turn a corner at the start of 2010: better shot selection, more forays to the basket, more displays of his freakish athleticism, better defense (on his man and in help situations). Just as quickly though, he lapsed into a funk that coincided with the recent laggard play of the team. The table below, which summarizes Chandler's averages for 2 different stretches in 2010, spells this out:
| Wilson Chandler '10/Averages | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Turnovers | TOR | Shots at Rim | plus/minus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First 3 games | 24.7 | 9.3 | 4 | 1 | 12.1 | 8.7 | plus 58 |
| Next 5 games | 12.8 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 4 | 22.1 | 5 | minus 31 |
| Last game (DET) | 17 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 15.5 | 3 | minus 1 |
| Season Averages | 14.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 9.72 | 4.8 |
Wilson's high points were his first 3 games of the new year, specifically spectacular games against the Hawks and Bobcats. Now we're talking about pretty small sample sizes here, so it's fair to point out that perhaps those great games were outliers, and his recent play is more of a regression to the mean. One column worth noting, though, is the turnover rate, which has spiked in recent games. Typically, the Knicks leading in that category are the guards (Duhon, Robinson) as well as Jeffries, one of the most turnover prone players in the league. Yet Wilson in recent games has been approaching them, and his 22.1 turnover rate in the five game stretch would lead all small forwards in the league by a wide margin if it extended to the season.
The coach seems to think it's a lack of focus and energy with Wilson, and perhaps it's the January blahs afflicting a lot of the league that's responsible. But I also think he's been forced out of his comfort zone a bit more. The guard issues have forced the forwards (Lee, Chandler, Gallinari) to do more playmaking, and combined with other teams keying in on Wilson more, are forcing him to make plays that he's not necessarily adept at making. To Wilson's credit, he isn't settling for the long jumpers as much as he was early in the season, but when he's cut off from attacking the rim, he tends to linger too long before making a decision and/or not making good decisions on his passes.
The first half of Monday's game against the Pistons looked like a return to (better) form, as Wilson went 5 for 7 for 14 points and looked smooth and confident. But in the third quarter, the wheels came off again: 0-2, 2 turnovers (including an awful sideline inbound pass that turned into a Piston fastbreak), minus 16 for the quarter, and he was abused badly on defense by the Pistons' frontline players as the Pistons erased the Knicks' 14 point lead. Even Ben Wallace got off a Hakeem-worthy turnaround jumper off Chandler -- Ben Wallace! D'Antoni finally had enough and sat Wilson for the entire fourth quarter in favor of Nate + a "long" lineup of Jeffries-Lee-Gallinari-Harrington.
So yeah, I'm concerned about the guards, but I'm also hoping the three day break helps Wilson snap out of his funk. Especially since he's likely to spend good portions of the next two games guarding Kobe and Dirk.
* On the positive front, I'm as thrilled as most Knick fans that Jordan Hill has gotten some extended minutes, and looked good for most of them. He still looks rather raw -- there is a lot of extraneous movement on his post moves, his ballhandling is shaky at best, and his aggression sometimes works against him. But his liveliness on the court and especially around the boards has been a positive, he has a decent jumper, and unlike Bender, he looks like he can provide some genuine protection around the rim with a little more experience. Having said that, it's odd that a coach/GM favorite like Bender lost his rotation spot so suddenly, even though its justified by Bender's erratic play and inability to contribute so far apart from outside shooting. I still can't help wonder whether Hill is being showcased in some way for a trade deadline move.
Knicks vs Lakers, MSG, 8pm
Not feeling great about this one, facing an angry and physically superior Lakers team that rules every possible statistical category against the Knicks. The only positive the Knicks could exploit is possible tiredness from last night's intense game; they may as well as pray for Kobe's back to act up. However, the atmosphere at the Garden will probably get the Lakers through any fatigue or minor injuries, and the Knicks unfortunately have a tendency to shrink in high profile games at home like this one, where the buzz (more press, more celebrities) seems to distract the players. Even the bench, a past weakness for the Lakers, has been playing better as of late, making it unlikely the Knicks can pick up some cheap points while the regulars are resting.
The Lakers do have issues with smaller, explosive guards, making this the perfect stage for Nate. If Nate can build on the hyperfocused, in control play he showed in last Monday's Pistons game, he can give the Knicks a chance. My main hope for tonight's game is for the team to play like it belongs on the floor with the Lakers for at least a half -- the game at Staples in December looked that way on the scoreboard, but the Lakers never looked like they had to break a sweat in that one, even when they lost the lead briefly in the first half. The Knicks need to keep the pace down, limit the turnovers, not give too much on the inside, and limit the damage done by Kobe. Give the fans not wearing Laker jerseys something to cheer for. That's not asking for too much, right?
UPDATE: Adding to the surliness of the Lakers: lost luggage! And Matt chimes in with another fine piece on the heart of darkness lurking and threatening to overwhelm the Knicks tonight. Stay strong, Knicks.
The Storybook Moments, and the Moments That Frame Them
Source: Getty Images
It surfaced during last night's game between the Utah Jazz and Cleveland Cavaliers, when D-League callup Sundiata Gaines, playing for the Jazz on his second 10-day contract, entered a sluggish, late-night game in the fourth quarter. Not only did he get significant minutes and lead a Utah Jazz comeback, he made an incredible game-winner after it looked like one of Lebron James' best 4th quarter outbursts (20 points in the 4th quarter, including 2 wild three pointers in a 30 second span) would erase all the warm vibes generated by Gaines' (and the Jazz's) effort.
This was a wonderful moment, one that's already getting great play in the blogosphere (start with Matt Moore's very fine account authored only an hour after the game ended). It even sounds poetic: Sundiata Slays the King! What will stick with me, though, are the less heralded moments that led to and framed this dramatic finish. Some will justifiably point out that Kyle Korver had a big part in the win, most especially with a crazy behind the backboard baseline jumper with 5 seconds left that cut the lead to one and set up the final dramatics.
Rewind to the start of the final period, when Gaines entered a desultory game full of mistakes and missed opportunities for both teams. I was rooting for Gaines from the moment he entered the game, as I was made aware of his story thanks to this video of his callup to the Jazz. I admired the way he pushed the ball, getting past Cav defenders in the lane, finding Boozer on the wing frequently for opportunities at the rim. I loved the way he finished an and-1 on a fastbreak, the confidence in his overall demeanor lifting what was a dreary, poorly played game to another level. And suddenly the Jazz overcame a 3rd quarter deficit to lead by 12 points.
But I also noticed Mo Williams, even with five fouls, start to pressure Gaines harder, becoming more physical with Gaines, making him work more to run the offense. These "welcome to the league" sequences between Mo and Sundiata played out as a game within a game, the experienced guard on one of the league's best teams turning the rookie's aggression against him, with perhaps the memory fresh in Mo's mind of when he was just starting in the league, mired on Jerry Sloan's bench fighting for minutes behind no less than four other guards.
And then the 12 point lead started to vanish, and Boozer had to admonish Gaines on one possession to slow down and maintain his composure. Gaines was finally replaced with 3 minutes left in the game after a turnover, with the lead down to 7 points. He wouldn't return until that final possession, Jazz down two, when it looked like Lebron had permanently put his stamp on the storyline, and it was just a question of the Cavs maintaining their own crumbling composure in the final seconds.
When it all finally played out, the ball finding its way to Gaines with a weird inevitability after the primary option (Korver) was well covered...well, it was amazing the way you would expect, the ball sailing in the air with a perfect arc that screamed "good" as soon as it left his hand, the ball falling through the net in unison with the buzzer and the backboard light flashing, right out of a Hollywood script. And naturally, Gaines was knocked on his back as the shot went in, with the camera panning wide to the crowd jumping out of their seats, confetti streaming through the air, and happy teammates rushing the floor to congratulate the rookie.
We've seen it all before, maybe become hardened to it a little because all the sports movies have the buzzer-beater template set a little too much in stone, the highlight editors at all the networks and on youtube have given us our fill of "where amazing happens", and even the great players (especially Kobe) have made some insane buzzer-beaters look almost routine lately. But as NBA fans, I'm not sure we've seen something quite as good and as improbable as this in a real game scenario in a while.
Beyond the look of joy and bewilderment on Gaines' own face and his teammates, it's worth nothing a brief moment that ended up edited out of most of the final highlight reels. The camera for the TNT broadcast -- in the midst of capturing all the usual trappings of celebration from hero, teammates, and fans -- cut very briefly to Mo Williams, the player who hounded Gaines. At first sullen, he flashed a smile that in a split second was wry and beatific, amplified by the light of the arena catching his face as he was making a beeline with his teammates into the darkness of the locker rooms.
Williams is not a popular player outside of the Cavalier fanbase -- his jittery, feisty style of play can come across as someone too full of himself if you're the opponent. Maybe his ambiguous reaction threw a wrench in the story the NBA video editors wanted to tell, and we were left with the focus on the Jazz's celebration in highlight videos circulating on NBA.com in the hours following the game.
But whatever one thinks of Mo (or the Cavaliers), I couldn't get his expression out of my mind after the euphoria of the game winner had dissipated. Mo had that look that said: "Respect....Damn." His smile may have given off a little bit of affection for a player coming up in circumstances not that different from his start in the league, trying to make the most of the spotlight, however fleeting. For just a flash, after all the trench warfare and having a victory snatched away so bitterly, Mo looked happy for his adversary. Forget handshakes or post-game interview cliches, this underlined the specialness of the moment and the game as much as anything.
Duhon on Durant?! Anatomy of a "Trick" Defense In Guarding a Superstar
One of the most outwardly frustrating symbols of Knick futility was seeing Chris Duhon on Kevin Durant to start the game, which raised more than a few quizzical looks if not outright derision from fans and onlookers. Duhon as a defender has been a bit of a lightning rod for Knick fans, since he is frequently assigned to an off guard for significant segments of games (and occasionally a small forward) while Jeffries or Chandler is assigned to the point guard. Playing longer players on opposing PGs is one of D'Antoni's pet defensive wrinkles though, and Duhon makes this easy for the coach because of his underrated ability to defend bigger players. And with the Knicks switching frequently, Duhon is just as likely to end up back on the opposing PG, or provide help in the paint, and close out on 3 point shooters when necessary (all things he does well that don't show up in the box score).
Nevertheless, it's a leap of faith to expect Duhon to effectively guard a 6'10" player, especially one as gifted on the perimeter as Durant. The initial Knick matchups were Duhon on Durant, Chandler on Westbrook, Lee on Kristic, Gallnari on Green, and Jeffries on Sefolosha. The latter matchup was designed to allow Jeffries to roam and provide help, as Sefolosha is one of the Thunder's lesser offensive options. The Knick plan was to send another defender at Durant whenever he got the ball in position to make a move or take a jumper, making him dribble out of traps in order to shoot or make plays to other players.
Sending a variety of soft and hard double teams at Durant is not an unreasonable strategy: despite Durant's all-star season so far, he is not (yet) a gifted playmaker like the high-usage superstars (Kobe/Lebron/Wade) he's compared to: Durant is fifth among small forwards playing 15+ minutes per game in turnover rate, and only 44th among such small forwards in assist rate. (KD also has less of his baskets at the rim assisted relative to the league average -- in other words, he creates most of his opportunities near the basket). Making him give up the ball or turning him into a playmaker against pressure, and using a smaller guard as the first line of resistance (given the Knicks' lack of size and physical defenders), was a creative way of potentially disrupting the Thunders' offensive rhythm, and blunting the ability of Durant to take over the game.
It would seem this plan failed miserably, as Durant scored 30 points on 14 shots in only 33 minutes, in a continuation of his crazy streak of efficiency in recent games. D'Antoni was questioned on having Duhon on Durant in the post-game, and the coach calmly replied that Durant had scored most of his points in transition, and that what really killed the Knicks was their poor offense, not the shaky defense. (he also credited the Thunder defenders for making that Knick offense so miserable)
I went back over the game and charted the Thunder's first 81 possessions (after which Durant was removed from the game when the blowout was secure) to examine more closely how Durant scored and how effective/ineffective the Knick defense was in limiting Durant's opportunities on offense. This table summarizes the results of all possessions where Kevin Durant either scored, assisted, or had an opportunity to have an impact on a Thunder offensive opportunity.
One note about this table -- the "OKC Miss/Turnover" rows for halfcourt and fastbreak possessions refer to possessions which ended unsuccessfully, even if Durant himself didn't miss the basket (for example, a Durant pass to a teammate that misses a layup). This isn't intended to "blame" Durant for the unsuccessful possession, but simply note how well the defense managed possessions where Durant was involved but didn't ultimately take the shot.
| Kevin Durant - OKC Possessions | 1st Half | 2nd Half | Total Possessions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Halfcourt - KD Score | 4 scores (9pts) | 3 scores (7pts) | 7 (16pts) |
| Halfcourt - KD Assist | 2 scores (4pts) | 0 | 2 (4pts) |
| Halfcourt- OKC Miss/Turnover | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| Fastbreak - KD Score | 6 scores (11pts) | 1 score (3pts) | 7 (14pts) |
| Fastbreak - KD Assist | 0 | 1 score (2pts) | 1 (2pts) |
| Fastbreak - OKC Miss/Turnover | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Total Possessions | 29 |
Some observations:
* Durant had limited opportunities to take it directly at the small defender. Though KD had 16 of his 30 points out of halfcourt opportunities, only one basket was the direct result of a score over Duhon. Duhon gave up a very visible basket on the second possession of the game, with Durant on the lower left block in a post-up, where KD missed the initial turnaround 5 footer, but tipped it in with comical ease over Duhon. After this possession though, there were a half dozen other similar post-ups of KD on Duhon which did not result in a score -- instead the Knicks effectively sent a second man over to double, or KD himself chose to pass back out to the wing. The number of possessions overall where Duhon was the primary defender on Durant was not a huge percentage: 7 possessions out of 25 in the first quarter, 2 out of 11 in the 2nd quarter, and 6 possessions out of 25 in the 3rd quarter.
* Durant scored most of his first half points in transition, or by drawing fouls on bigger players. KD had an impressive 20 point first half, with 11 of those points coming in transition off of Knick turnovers or missed baskets, and nine points coming off of half court opportunities. Only one shot was made over Duhon in a halfcourt set (the post-up described earlier): the other shots were jumpers over Chandler and Bender, or fouls drawn on jumpers.
This brings up a point which the Thunder coaching staff should be credited for: the Thunder did not bog down their offense by trying to force feed it into Durant in the post, or have him go one-on-one against a smaller defender. Durant started just as many sets at the wings, and chose to use the Knick focus on him to try and create opportunities selectively for teammates, or act as a decoy. The few times Durant actually seemed most engaged in going one-on-one was when he had a bigger defender isolated on him. But the Knicks did a reasonable job of keying on Durant in the halfcourt.
* Knick defense was undone by poor transition defense and inability to protect the rim. This is a point that could probably be made for any number of Knick losses over the last few years, but especially for losses in the early part of the season where the Knicks looked very overmatched. Even when the Knicks effectively doubled Durant or kept another defender near him in the halfcourt, he was able to find cutters or open teammates on the wing very easily. And when the Thunder did miss, they frequently cleaned up on the offensive boards. The Thunder plan, like most every Knick opponent, was to take it hard at the Knicks in transition -- the result was 6 fast break points in the first 9 Thunder possessions, and 23 fastbreak points for the game (to only 13 for the Knicks). OKC typically plays at a modest pace of 95 possessions a game, but they were running at a 100 possession pace throughout to keep the Knicks on their heels.
* Knicks made it too easy for the Thunder guards. If you're going to guard a star player effectively, a big part of the defensive plan is to make it difficult for the player in question. But the other part is to make sure teammates don't benefit disproportionately or with too much ease. (Extreme example: the college game where Stephen Curry of Davidson was shadowed by 2 players the whole game, allowing his teammates to score at will). OKC point guards Westbrook (17 points, 5 assists, 0 turnovers) and Maynor (9 points, 4 assists, 1 turnover) frequently had no issue getting to the elbow or deeper for a 15 foot jumper, and ran it hard every chance they could in transition. The Knicks typically protect the 3 point line and allow a certain number of mid-range jumpers, but the dribble penetration and shots being allowed to the guards were too easy, even against a defense shaded heavily toward a particular player.
* Thunder defense + terrible Knick offense = better OKC offense. Watching the game again, what struck me more than Durant's prodigious scoring ability was his effort on defense -- his length, along with his teammates (Green and Sefolosha especially) made things very difficult for every Knick, even elite shot creators like Nate Robinson. David Lee, in particular, was hounded into an awful shooting night (5 for 18), and six of the eight Knick regulars playing the first 3 quarters had at least 2 turnovers apiece. Long rebounds and all those Knick turnovers gave the Thunder many opportunities to run and establish a large margin quickly.
On the whole, the Thunder had 19 halfcourt offensive possessions with Durant playing a significant role, and the Thunder scored on 9 of those, and the Knicks got stops on 10. For a physically limited team like the Knicks, this is a passable rate of sucess, *if* the team could have locked down Durant's teammates or forced them into more inefficient possessions, and if the Knicks could have generated offense at their usual efficiency, and limited the transition breakouts of the Thunder. The fact that none of those "ifs" came to be meant a very loud and ugly rout, the worst Knick loss since a beating at Sacramento in December.
But KD on Duhon? Give Duhon some props for not being overwhelmed by the assignment, and even having a little bit of success on one possession in the third quarter, 6:32 -- Durant out on the right wing past the arc, with Duhon crouched underneath him (pictured above). Duhon knocked the ball out of his hands and high into the air, both players jumped and tipped it over to Westbrook, who ended up rushing a jumper and missing. If you DO want to get angry at Duhon, do give him grief for missing all eight of his shots, including three 3 pointers and a layup in an otherwise miserable 8 minutes of play in the third quarter before being lifted for good. The Knicks' resulting 15 point third quarter sealed this loss as much as their spotty defense.
Rocket Notes, Crushing on Lowry, Thunder Preview
Dating back to last year's playoffs (and especially post-McGrady and post-Yao) this Rockets team won my heart as a well assembled group of players with interesting depth, and players that knew their roles and meshed very well as a unit. Even with their memorable effort in the 7 game series loss to the Lakers, I admit I didn't expect them to be as entertaining as they have been this season. I was hooked when I caught an early game against the Warriors and the Rockets out-hustled and out-smarted Nellie's team while playing just as fast. This despite wings that don't really shoot all that well and no real interior presence. Even by the new standards of positional flexibility in the NBA, these Rockets seem like an especially fluid group, without the guiding hand of a mad scientist like Nellie to force certain players into awkward roles.
Thus when I looked ahead and saw this game on the schedule, I figured the Rockets would out-hustle and out-run their way past the Knicks, and teach the Knicks some lessons about how to play tough, how to play smart, and how to maximize the potential of a collection of talented role players. And that is sort of how it played out -- except the Knicks didn't follow the script for a half and looked like the "better" overachieving team, before getting steadily worn down in the second half. And the statistics to date this season actually show that these are more similar teams than it might have first appeared: both in the middle of the pack offensively and defensively, but capable of sustained stretches of good shooting and lock-down defense. The Rockets are a better offensive rebounding team, but otherwise the biggest difference in the numbers are the teams' respective records.
Some game notes:
* The similarities in the teams were reflected in the way the Rockets announcing team of Matt Bullard, Clyde Drexler, and Bill Worrell discussed the Knicks during the broadcast. I've found this team to be a tad homer-ish on a few League Pass games earlier in the season, but they were genial toward the Knicks the entire game, seemed to recognize the limits of their own Rockets as well as the Knicks, and even pointed out in the close final minutes that both teams faced issues with learning how to hold leads and win close games. They were highly complimentary of Lee and Chandler, and applauded the Knick defensive effort when it was warranted. There was the usual loud cheering for some of the hometown boys (Clyde's folksy rah-rah-ing is an acquired taste), but all in all I was happy to hear the Knicks get a fair and nuanced shake from another broadcasting team.
* Speaking of cheering for the hometown boys, I did get on board with the cheering for one Rocket, Kyle Lowry. I get a crazy buzz watching Lowry enter a game whenever I watch the Rockets -- seeing him bowl through players (including teammates) for loose balls, rebounds and tip-ins -- that approaches the giddiness of a high school crush when he's in full-on tornado mode. I didn't want to see him do it against the Knicks, but there was no surprise in seeing him make a major impact on the flow of the game with hustle plays. I imagine it's the same buzz opposing fans and audiences get when they see Nate Robinson enter the game and get on one of his scoring bursts. Lowry comes on more like your favorite independent film actor, never announcing his importance but establishing his gravity and hovering around the edges of your awareness even when off-camera; Nate is more of a scenery-chewing leading man when he's on the floor (though to be fair, he has toned this aspect of his personality since the benching).
* The Knicks, led by Lee, Chandler and Robinson, established a sizable lead of 13 points in the first half, but after a Rocket timeout down 55-42, their defense woke up. (Lee and Chandler, in particular, weren't challenged much on dribble penetration for most of the 1st half) In the second half, Lee was played more tightly on his dribble, and Duhon was trapped much more aggressively on every pick and roll. Attempts to reverse the ball over to the weak side were challenged, and most of the 2nd half offense was garbage baskets from Jeffries, jumpers from Nate, and the occasional move by Chandler. The Knicks scored 64 points the first 26 minutes, only 31 points the final 22 minutes.
* Alan Hahn over at Newsday said in his report that Nate got extended minutes and a longer leash, partially to get him used to running the offense with more fluidity, partially because he could keep up with Brooks. Perhaps that what the coaches intended, but neither worked out very well. Brooks had a 3 pointer and a 15 foot jumper in a couple of key sequences that gave the Rockets the lead in the 3rd quarter, both the result of Nate not getting through screens or getting beaten. And the playmaking part didn't work so well either: 1 assist and 4 turnovers, including 3 key turnovers in the final two minutes. Nate is still very driven toward his own offense, and the coaching staff is going to have to find ways to get him to move the ball more effectively.
* The Knick defense really struggled with guarding the post -- Scola and Landry were receiving the ball in very good position too often, and the Knicks have more difficulty defending mobile post players who can pass. They had a little more luck with Landry at the start of the game, but by the end Landry was shooting over or around the Knick players with ease. And when the Rockets were stopped, Lowry was there to bail his team out. The Rockets also did an exceptional job of making the shots the Knicks gave them: they were 11 of 16 on long jumpers of 16-23 feet, way above their season average. Only two other times this season had the Rockets shot over 60% on long jumpers -- probably helping in this area was the foul trouble of inefficient Trevor Ariza, whose limited playing time meant more minutes for Chase Budinger and David Andersen, who are better shooters.
* Best line delivered by the announcing team, when Gallinari tried a spin move into the lane in the first quarter, and ended up falling over (and somehow getting a pass underneath to Jeffries, who was fouled) -- "Gallinari was trying a 360 there and only got to 280". Which sums up the game he had, though he may not have even got to 280 (to overextend the metaphor). Gallo was penetrating early and got off a few good jumpers, but in the second half he had a lot of trouble getting into the flow of the offense and making himself an option, and when he did get jumpers off they were challenged.
Knicks vs Thunder, Ford Center, 8:00pm
This should be a very interesting game -- superficially by the numbers, it looks like the Knicks will be facing another so-so offensive team (Thunder 21st in offensive efficiency) but one that is very good defensively (7th in defensive efficiency, and especially strong in limiting opponents' shooting and forcing turnovers). A lot of the Knick focus will be on Kevin Durant, who's having an All-Star season, averaging nearly 29 points a game and playing 40 minutes per game (he's averaged 25 points against the Knicks in his career). He and Westbrook will be a load for the Knicks, and the biggest defensive challenge for the Knicks may be how to limit Westbrook's penetration and rebounding.
The Thunder are a tall team and definitely pose some interesting defensive issues in terms of how much the Knicks use players like Nate, what defensive assigments players like Chandler and Jeffries get, and how much matchup zone they play. Al Harrington's return to the lineup tonight, assuming he is actually able to play at 80 percent or better, will help with the interior defense and also give the offense more options to attack the Thunder. OKC has won six of their last eight, and is, in their own way, as interesting and probably sexier than the Rockets in terms of "scrappy, emerging team" storylines -- young stars, interesting role players (Collison, Ibaka, Sefolosha, Kristic), and lots of pieces that coach Mike D'Antoni probably wouldn't mind having on his own team. Should be a lot of fun to watch.
Stats of interest:
1) Ten of Nate Robinson's 24 shots against the Hawks in his first game after benching were at the rim, and he made nine. Since then, in 3 games, Nate has attempted 30 shots total, and 3 of them have been at the rim. Hope the coaching staff reminds Nate to take it in more, and find more open shooters at the wings when the defense collapses.
2) Jared Jeffries leads the Knicks in adjusted +/- and on/off rating, and is 25th and 30th in the league overall in those categories, respectively. I'll have more to say about this in a future post, but this may be the best (if still very limited) measure of his value to the Knicks in recent games, given the inability of traditional metrics to assess his impact. Also, Jeffries is 13th in defensive rating from the same metrics, and my man Kyle Lowry happens to be 15th.
As always, all efficiency and shot location numbers in this post courtesy of Knickerblogger and Hoopdata, two indispensable resources. Plus/Minus data courtesy of basketballvalue.com.
Bobcats vs Knicks, MSG, 7:30pm: Show Me What You've Got
Most sports fans will be watching college football this evening, which makes tonight's Knicks-Bobcats game the token game for basketball diehards. And even diehards may be thumbing their nose at this marquee matchup of flawed teams attempting to make an early statement in the sub-.500 race for 7th/8th seed in the Eastern Conference.
Looked at another way, you have two interesting teams on small but meaningful streaks that are staking out an identity for themselves. The Bobcats have won two big road games against Miami and Cleveland after being mostly hopeless on the road for the first two months of the season, and are demonstrating an ability to win faster paced games as well as games played at their preferred low 90s/high 80s possession rate. Raymond Felton, Steven Jackson and Gerald Wallace are all playing very well -- Felton has always played well against the Knicks (22.3 points, 7.3 assists, 6.7 rebounds in 3 games this year), and seems to be the biggest beneficiary of the arrival of SJax. According to Hollinger in his latest column examining under the radar performers, Felton is finally playing above league average for his position.
Jackson has been a subject of contention for his inefficient if occasionally spectacular play when he was at Golden State, but I cringed when the Bobcats acquired him for scraps because I knew he would do exactly what he's been doing for Larry Brown's team: making them tougher and more competitive. Apropos of nothing, the D'Antoni Knicks haven't yet beaten a team with a healthy Stephen Jackson playing (2 losses to the Warriors, a loss to the Bobcats). The lone win against the Bobcats came in mid-December with Jackson having to leave the game after a half with back spasms.
As for the Knicks, I made a mildly harsh proclamation at the end of a recent post describing them as the sort of team that would linger at six to eight games under .500 for the foreseeable future. They can do much better, of course, and the trends (with Nate Robinson back) point in that direction. At the very least, they seem to have worked out the severe spikes and dips in their focus and efficiency from game to game and have a more consistent commitment to defense and getting stops.
The next four games will be telling, though, to see if the Knicks can take that next step. I don't mean to discount the positive things about the team's resurgence in December, but much of it has been accomplished against teams the Knicks should have beaten (the most striking exception: two wins against the Hawks). When the Knicks faced challenges in December (road games against the Bulls and Bobcats, home games against the Heat and Spurs), they were competitive but couldn't quite pull off wins.
Tonight's game against Charlotte will be another manageable but deceptively difficult challenge. The Knicks should win, but they always seem to struggle to close this team out, and Charlotte has everyone healthy except for Tyson Chandler and has been playing their best basketball of the season. After tonight, there's a tough back-to-back with two of the most exciting teams in the West, the Rockets and Thunder, followed by a road game against the 76ers (who've played poorly this season but always match up well with the Knicks). If the Knicks end up splitting the next four games, I'll consider this stretch a success.
Stat for the night coming into this game, courtesy of Hoopdata: David Lee is 30 of 47 on long jumpers (16-23 feet) in 8 of the last 9 games: his lone poor performance was missing 4 of 5 from the same distance in the Hawks game on New Year's Day. That's a remarkable 64% on long jumpers after shooting 39% from the same distance the first 21 games of the season.
UPDATE: Al Harrington is out with a strained calf. For a team without frontline depth and still a little tenuous offensively, this could get interesting.
