It starts today -- 22 games remaining in the season to see if the Knicks can gain the final playoff spot in the East. The good news is that they get started right away against the teams they are battling for that spot: Charlotte tonight, the Nets tomorrow, Milwaukee on Tuesday. The bad news is that after the Bobcats, the next five games are on the road.

I decided to glance at the schedules of all the teams contending for the eighth seed in the East, and do some back-of-the-napkin type calculations  -- these are obviously NOT scientific, I scrawled this table with half an eye on the Celtics-Cavs game.  (You can get your playoff science courtesy of Kubatko at basketball-reference or Hollinger at ESPN).  All I chose to do was categorize each game on a given team's schedule as to whether it was a likely win, a toss-up, or a likely loss. Because these teams are all weirdly flawed and yet very capable of beating most teams in the NBA on a given night, I categorized a large number of games in the toss-up category.

Team	Record	Games Remaining	Likely Win	Toss-Up	Likely Loss	Projected Record
Charlotte	27-35	20	7	7	6	38-44
Chicago	29-34	19	5	9	5	39-43
Indiana	27-37	18	4	11	3	36-46
Milwaukee	29-36	17	6	8	3	39-43
New Jersey	27-35	20	3	10	7	37-45
New York	25-35	22	4	10	8	36-46

I was very conservative in rating games as "likely wins", because all these teams are so mercurial, and the league beyond the Celtics, Cavaliers, Lakers (and to a lesser degree Magic, Jazz, Spurs and Hornets) is pretty competitive on a game by game basis. And pretty much any game between two of the teams above was an automatic toss-up. Likely losses would be games against the league's Big Three, or a road game against someone on the next level (Jazz most notoriously). I projected the records simply by assuming that all the teams above would win almost all the likely wins, win just over/under half of the toss-ups, and lose almost all of the likely losses. Give a team a win it shouldn't have, and a loss against a team it shouldn't lose to, and it still evens out.

It's fair to say that they're probably not adopting my method of Playoff Odds at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference this weekend. Still, when I worked out the records, they weren't too far off from the Playoff Oddsmeisters I cited above. I was probably a bit kind to Charlotte and not so kind to Indiana or the Knicks, but it's still amazing to see how close this race is likely to be...a weird, uglified mud wrestling match that counters the more glamorous race for seeding in the Western Conference.

Here's what hurts for the Knicks (and Nets as well): they have the highest number of likely losses. In March they play Cleveland, Orlando twice, and at Utah and Denver. Realistically, they'll do well to split their 14 remaining games this month -- which means to win 39 games (the likely minimum needed to clinch the final playoff spot) they can only lose one game out of eight the rest of the season. Likewise, the Nets play Portland, Denver, the Lakers, the Celtics, the Magic, and two games apiece against the Cavs and a resurgent Pistons team.

Milwaukee is in the driver's seat with 11 of their 17 remaining games at home, and only 3 really difficult games, though the odds guys like the Bulls chances best. I guess I do too from a talent level, but the Bulls are the most mercurial of mercurial choices, with lineups even more unstable than the Knicks, and probably the most questionable coaching. So it's going to be interesting. The Bobcats are an interesting sleeper choice, as they've been streaking lately, and playing together better than anyone among the pretenders outside of the Bucks.

The Knicks still haven't completely worked out their go-to strategy down the stretch. Will it be continued isolations and dish and drives from Nate? Will Gallinari have a chance to get more key shots in the fourth quarter? Can Duhon revive himself to make the pick and roll the formidable weapon it was at the start of the season? Can Larry Hughes become part of a more reliable attack, rather than a shaky piece that vies for shots with all the other shaky pieces (Harrington, Robinson, Duhon, Gallinari, etc)? The reality is that the Knicks are competitive in just about every game, but the indecisiveness in the fourth quarter (and the inability to get stops) tends to be fatal...unless it's Nate riding another hot streak, but then ball movement pretty much dies.

For the Knicks to make a credible run, they will have to win both games this weekend, and they'll have to be competitive with the Bucks on Tuesday night, who have owned them badly all year. And then they're going to have to play at a level they haven't yet achieved so far this year -- a bit over their heads...they have to win most of the toss-ups, shock a couple of teams they have no right beating.  Despite these odds, I'm optimistic, excited even...because I wouldn't exactly put down a lot of money on any of the other teams. It's all so wonderfully up in the air, and the best summary of this was written by Matt Moore at Hardwood Paroxysm (Let's Get A Tournament Going Fellas):

None of these teams are what you would call “good.” They’re flawed, and because of their flaws, they are incredibly fun to watch. You pull for them to overcome them, and there’s a baseball-like joy in watching them develop, find themselves, discover that “Hey, we can beat these guys.”

The eighth spot in the East should be a tournament. It would be a three day tournament held in the interim week before the playoffs. The runner-up gets an extra 4% in the lottery. And it would be some of the absolute best basketball you’re going to see this season. I don’t envy the college game for the randomness of March Madness, I love the assuredness of the Association’s championship system. There’s no doubt at the the end of the season that the champion has earned it and deserved it. You can debate a team was better but the sample size is sufficient to provide legitimacy. But for the East’s eight spot? Who cares about legitimacy? We’re all aware that no team is surviving playing three days in a row, then having to turn around and travel for a seven game series against the best team in the East. But it would be terrific ball. Derrick Rose versus Deven Harris. Villanueva versus Harrington. The Raptors bizarre mutation versus the composite Bobcats.

This is logistically impossible, and impractical to the nth degree. But I say it because you should know that under your nose, as the rest of the League rots in the downturn, carrying out the same pattern that’s been set, there is a shimmering pool of imperfect, incredible basketball happening underneath your local stations.

Amen. I'm going to be at both Knick games this weekend, which will be the first back to back I've ever attended, involving games a combined 26 games under .500. Forget the DWade-Lebron fireworks tonight, Suns-Spurs on Sunday, Duke-Carolina.  It's going to be a blast being at both games, and I'll be updating on Twitter and providing more detailed notes after the weekend.