Battle For the Eighth Seed In the East: Updated Projections
After the disastrous lost weekend with losses to the Bobcats and Nets ten days ago, there was a pretty good chance that the Knicks season would be effectively over by this date...but thanks to three victories in their last four road games, the Knicks are still in the race. Here are the latest standings going into tonight's Knick game against the New Jersey Nets:
Some quick notes:
* The Knicks have fought their way back into the picture...but they haven't made dramatic gains, because outside of a Bobcat loss to the Timberwolves on Saturday, the other contenders have largely won games they were supposed to. Furthermore, the Celtics' recent injury problems enabled the Bucks and Bulls to win two games this week that I originally counted as "likely losses", which really hurts because the Bulls and Bucks, along with the Bobcats, are the teams the Knicks are really fighting it out with at this point.
* The Pacers and Nets seem like the teams mostly likely to fall out of the race first. The Pacers did get Granger back, and have a large number of home games remaining, but they have little margin for error. New Jersey meanwhile, has lost Devin Harris indefinitely and still seems to be struggling with closing out winnable games.
* More and more, the schedule seems to favor Chicago, odd lineups and dysfunctional coaching aside. Nine of their remaining 15 games are at home, where they are much more effective, and there aren't any really difficult games against top tier teams remaining on their schedule. The Bobcats also have a very favorable schedule, particularly this week, but six of their last eight games are on the road. The Bucks (like the Knicks), have three games left against the Magic, who are playing about as well as any top tier team out there right now (including the Lakers, Celtics and Cavaliers), so their path is more daunting as well.
* The Knicks have things pretty manageable this week with the injured Nets tonight and the Kings on Friday night. Then comes the doomsday stretch: a home and home with Orlando, a brief respite with the Clippers at home, and then two back to backs involving the Hornets, @ Bobcats, @ Utah and @ Denver. The Knicks somehow have to find a way to survive this stretch not falling behind any more than two games. My personal feeling is that if they find a way to get through the rest of March with "only" three more losses, they can make a run in April...but that assumes that the other teams don't go on any sort of prolonged streak.
* Gallinari is injured and possibly lost for the year...but I don't think this impacts the ability of the Knicks to make their run. It would have been nice to have a shooter as smart and efficient as Gallo off the bench, but I think it's more important for him to find a way to get his back closer to 100 percent. D'Antoni has been trending toward keeping his rotations tighter, and Gallinari at 60 percent is having a harder time making an impact on games in his current state.
* It may not be a big deal given that all the teams are running on extra energy with the push for the final playoff spot...but thanks to scheduling quirks, the Knicks have FIVE back-to-backs remaining. No other team has more than three, and the Bucks only have two. If the minor health issues dogging the Knicks continue to get worse (specifically Duhon and Lee), this kind of schedule doesn't really help much.
* As always, my favorite place to go to read about the wonderful flavor of this weird race toward the eighth playoff spot can be found at Hardwood Paroxysm: Playoff Paroxysm, Round 2: How Deep Is Your Love? and Playoff Paroxysm, Round 1: Who Coaches the Coachmen?
| Team | Record | Games Left | Home Games | Likely Win | Toss-Up | Likely Loss | Projected Record |
| Chicago | 31-37 | 14 | 9 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 39-43 |
| Milwaukee | 31-38 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 39-43 |
| Charlotte | 29-38 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 38-44 |
| New York | 28-38 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 37-45 |
| New Jersey | 28-39 | 15 | 8 | 1 | 12 | 2 | 35-47 |
| Indiana | 28-40 | 15 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 35-47 |
Some quick notes:
* The Knicks have fought their way back into the picture...but they haven't made dramatic gains, because outside of a Bobcat loss to the Timberwolves on Saturday, the other contenders have largely won games they were supposed to. Furthermore, the Celtics' recent injury problems enabled the Bucks and Bulls to win two games this week that I originally counted as "likely losses", which really hurts because the Bulls and Bucks, along with the Bobcats, are the teams the Knicks are really fighting it out with at this point.
* The Pacers and Nets seem like the teams mostly likely to fall out of the race first. The Pacers did get Granger back, and have a large number of home games remaining, but they have little margin for error. New Jersey meanwhile, has lost Devin Harris indefinitely and still seems to be struggling with closing out winnable games.
* More and more, the schedule seems to favor Chicago, odd lineups and dysfunctional coaching aside. Nine of their remaining 15 games are at home, where they are much more effective, and there aren't any really difficult games against top tier teams remaining on their schedule. The Bobcats also have a very favorable schedule, particularly this week, but six of their last eight games are on the road. The Bucks (like the Knicks), have three games left against the Magic, who are playing about as well as any top tier team out there right now (including the Lakers, Celtics and Cavaliers), so their path is more daunting as well.
* The Knicks have things pretty manageable this week with the injured Nets tonight and the Kings on Friday night. Then comes the doomsday stretch: a home and home with Orlando, a brief respite with the Clippers at home, and then two back to backs involving the Hornets, @ Bobcats, @ Utah and @ Denver. The Knicks somehow have to find a way to survive this stretch not falling behind any more than two games. My personal feeling is that if they find a way to get through the rest of March with "only" three more losses, they can make a run in April...but that assumes that the other teams don't go on any sort of prolonged streak.
* Gallinari is injured and possibly lost for the year...but I don't think this impacts the ability of the Knicks to make their run. It would have been nice to have a shooter as smart and efficient as Gallo off the bench, but I think it's more important for him to find a way to get his back closer to 100 percent. D'Antoni has been trending toward keeping his rotations tighter, and Gallinari at 60 percent is having a harder time making an impact on games in his current state.
* It may not be a big deal given that all the teams are running on extra energy with the push for the final playoff spot...but thanks to scheduling quirks, the Knicks have FIVE back-to-backs remaining. No other team has more than three, and the Bucks only have two. If the minor health issues dogging the Knicks continue to get worse (specifically Duhon and Lee), this kind of schedule doesn't really help much.
* As always, my favorite place to go to read about the wonderful flavor of this weird race toward the eighth playoff spot can be found at Hardwood Paroxysm: Playoff Paroxysm, Round 2: How Deep Is Your Love? and Playoff Paroxysm, Round 1: Who Coaches the Coachmen?

Comments