A Surreal and Incomplete Draft Night


Some quick thoughts on a weird draft evening, full of anticipation and hope and potential and risk and yearning, yet feeling at the end like too many questions and loose ends and weird decisions were hanging in the air. A very incomplete blueprint remains for most teams this summer, until free agency decisions and trades fill out the picture.

The teams with the top three picks (Clippers, Grizzlies, Thunder) made largely sound and defensible selections. But starting with the Kings’ surprise pick of Tyreke Evans over Ricky Rubio, the questions started to multiply...even as most teams got what they wanted, or at least someone in their top three based on their draft position.

Leading up to draft day, the Knicks never wavered from their public pursuit of Stephen Curry, even with his stock rising; even rumors of their moving up in the draft were framed with the idea that such a move would ensure being able to draft Curry (as opposed to Rubio or Thabeet or Evans that might presumably rank higher on the Knicks’ board). The Knicks were ultimately victimized by two surprises when they were unable to move up: one major (the Timberwolves picking point guard Jonny Flynn right after selecting point guard Ricky Rubio), and one minor (the Warriors selecting Stephen Curry despite Curry’s overtures toward NY and the presence of Monta Ellis).

As a result, the Knicks decided to go down their list to the best available player (in their eyes) – Jordan Hill. The Knicks also acquired the Lakers’ pick at number 29 and chose Florida State guard Toney Douglas. These are reasonable picks, especially for a team that could stand to improve at every position, but the upshot of the choices is that the Knicks determined that Evans, Curry, Rubio and Flynn were the only PGs worth considering at their position, and that a raw athletic forward with lots of question marks was preferable to other PG choices such as Jennings, Holliday, or Lawson.

The specter of future deals hangs over the draft selections made not just by the Knicks, but several other teams – it’s hard to believe Minnesota will stay with their three point guards, or that other lottery teams (most prominently Golden State and Phoenix) won’t be looking to make their own blockbuster deals in order to address gaping weaknesses and/or the need to rebuild. The Knicks will surely make a play for Rubio once July rolls around, but I wouldn't be surprised to see teams like Phoenix or Portland make a move as well.

Some further thoughts:

*  I’m not crushed by losing out on Curry, because there were legitimate question marks on his upside, as with many of his peers in this odd draft. His loss was tough mainly because he clearly craved the opportunity to play with the Knicks, and has many of the attributes lacking from last year’s team (great shooter, good passer, highly professional and mature disposition). Because of my warped fondness for the Warriors’ brand of chaos-ball, I’m happy to see him get his shot with Golden State if he couldn’t be a Knick, and look forward to catching him play many late nights on League Pass.

*  Quickly spreading meme among woe-is-me Knick fans with the selection of Hill: Hill = Wilcox 2.0 (secondary meme: Hill = Channing Frye 2.0). I admit Hill was high on my list of potential draft busts prior to the selections (most analytics measures, most prominently Hollinger's and Basketball Prospectus, are not kind to Hill), and I wonder about another athletic forward with questionable basketball IQ and limited shooting range. But he’s a Knick now, and he was picked by the Knicks’ brain trust over some pretty good players, so I’m going to reserve judgement. The Knicks aren’t teeming with talent in the middle, so Hill fills a need if he can meet the expectations of the coaching staff for him, particularly on defense. Lee and Wilcox didn’t set particularly high standards on defense (perimeter or interior), so the bar isn’t too high for Hill to overcome.

*  Toney Douglas is a good selection for the late first round, though I personally had my eyes on Patty Mills or even Nick Calathes. I think Douglas can be a solid energy guard off the bench that can defend very capably – he will be a vast improvement over Nate Robinson in that area. He was an exceptional college player and the best defensive player in the Atlantic Coast Conference last season, but I do wonder how well his game will translate, whether his size will be an issue, and how good a ball handler he is.

*  The most burning question of the evening was Minnesota’s decision to draft two highly regarded point guards back to back. I can’t lie: even after watching multiple interviews conducted with David Kahn on this subject, the answers were evasive and unsatisfying, and it’s hard to find anyone who believes both guards will still be with the Wolves at the start of the 2009-10 season.

Kahn claims that Rubio is more of an orchestrator and Flynn is a more offensive minded guard, but Flynn as an undersized combo guard alongside Rubio doesn’t seem plausible. Kahn tried to cite examples like Isiah and Dumars from the Bad Boy Pistons, but his examples date back over 20 years – his two point guard lineup wouldn’t stand a chance against most of the taller backcourts in the league (I’d shudder to think about the Wolves against the Magic or Lakers). Furthermore, it’s odd for a team that made such a big deal about trading up to get Rubio to make him one of three point guards, especially they were already operating at a disadvantage given the market (Minneapolis), the recent history of underachievement, and the unresolved coaching situation.

For this reason, I don’t find it a surprise that Rubio’s camp is making significant noise about returning to Spain. I don’t think Minnesota should allow itself to be bullied into trading a potential star like Rubio to the Knicks or any other team, but if they really wanted to compel Rubio to go through an onerous buyout and sell Minnesota as an attractive situation, they did not handle the situation optimally.

One possible scenario is for Kahn to complete the selection process for a coach, and then a trade will be made based on the preferences of the coaching staff. But again, this makes both Rubio and Flynn pawns while a coaching search goes on, an odd thing to subject your top two draft choices. Yes, they’re young, and this is a business, but Rubio has options and a pretty dogged agent, so this could get quite messy. (Kahn has since said in interviews that he picked Flynn because of the possibliity that Rubio might bolt, but this only makes the reasoning behind the Rubio selection more dubious)

* Finally, the draft sounded like its usual rowdy, animated self at MSG, and watching from home and keeping track of all the player, reporter, and friend/follower tweets on Twitter was highly enjoyable. Casting a pall over everything (for me certainly) was the death of Michael Jackson, a brilliant pop star, musician, dancer and overall entertainment figure who meant so much to me. Yes, he was one of the most flawed and tragic of mega-celebrities, but for all my cynicism and lack of surprise over the actual circumstances of his death, the announcement of the news was a punch to the gut. I leave with a draft night tweet from Dwight Howard, fitting because something child-like in Dwight's personality clearly resonated with something similar in Michael Jackson that touched so many of us:

y are people so controversial on here. i am very shocked about mj. i have every song he ever put out. i am shocked and sad.

And for people rushing to iTunes/Amazon to get caught up on someone they have forgotten about recently, I would encourage not only the obvious choices (Thriller/Off the Wall), but some Jacksons albums from the '70s/'80s, specifically Destiny, Triumph and Victory. (when MJ breaks into the introduction to "Can You Feel It" on Triumph, it still gives me chills). The albums are relatively cheap, and though there's a fair amount of cheese in some of the songs, there's also plenty of primo young Michael just before he launched into mega-solo-stardom with Off the Wall.

RIP Michael -- my heart is heavy, but your music will always live on.


 
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