2009-10 Knicks Season Preview




Danilo Gallinari.   Photo: Jake Chessums

(Jeff Clark at CelticsBlog has been rounding up NBA bloggers for the last four years to do previews for their respective teams in the month of October. I'm honored to be part of the blogging contingent this year. I'll be posting links in the coming days to everyone's outstanding work, but you can also take a look at the schedule if you have particular teams you want to keep an eye out for. Celtics and Nets previews are already up, and today, October 3rd, is Knicks preview day.

This preview builds on a short piece I did for Nat of Heels on Hardwood, who has been doing a fine ongoing series on matchups between all the NBA teams and the Toronto Raptors)

(UPDATE: thanks to any new visitors coming here as a result of the team blogging. I've been made aware of a quirk that mainfests itself in the site displaying oddly in Firefox on the Mac (no sidebar, weirdly formatted text). I'm working on it, and it appears the site looks OK in Safari. Please let me know if you encounter any other irregularities)


What significant moves were made during the offseason?

The most significant moves made by the Knicks centered on keeping a vigilant eye on cap space for 2010 -- which meant that essentially nothing happened in the off-season. There were significant overtures made to Jason Kidd and Grant Hill, which were attempts to add leadership and character to the team moreso than adding a franchise talent: both players are clearly past their peak, though they could have helped the team notably in the short term.  

As speculation about the future shrinkage of the league salary cap got increasingly dire over the course of the summer, the Knicks stuck to their guns and seem determined not to make even the most tempting moves for cost-effective talent like Andre Miller or Ramon Sessions.  David Lee and Nate Robinson, two of the most productive Knicks in 2008-09, were kept at arm's length the entire summer as restricted free agents, and ended up signing one-year contracts for $7 million and $2.9 million respectively. 

The team did make modest acquisitions that are likely to fill needs. Darko Milicic was acquired from Memphis for Quentin Richardson (who then made the rounds of several other NBA teams before finally winding up in Miami), providing some useful depth at center and a much needed defensive presence. The Knicks also signed first round draft picks Jordan Hill and Toney Douglas, though they missed out on coveted target Stephen Curry (drafted by the Golden State Warriors).

What are the Knicks' biggest strengths?

The Knick coaching staff and its 7 seconds or less offense-first system (which excels at providing roles for players of varying abilities) remains the team’s biggest strength.  The system made the Knicks second in the league in Pace last season, though offensive efficiency was middling (17th last season). When the team wasn't disrupted by trades or injuries, it was surprisingly competitive with even elite teams on most nights.  

As far as individual players go, Danilo Gallinari, last year’s first round pick, returns at full strength, and reports from training camp at this early date are gushing. Gallo was already showing tantalizing flashes of how good he could be in his limited appearances last season, and there is plenty of optimism for him as a  savvy shooter and playmaker capable of playing 3 positions in D’Antoni’s system. Gallinari gives D'Antoni more creative options for offense beyond the point guard driven, pick and roll attack led by Duhon last season, along with the more ball-dominant tendencies of Al Harrington and Nate Robinson.

The Knicks also have more frontline depth and overall size than the 2008-09 roster, though you'd be hard-pressed to mention the Knick frontline as an actual "strength" in an Eastern conference where the best teams have added players like Shaquille O'Neal, Rasheed Wallace, and Brandon Bass to already imposing frontlines.

What are the Knicks' biggest weaknesses?

Despite more new faces and a reasonable collection of solid talent, this remains a defensively-challenged roster loaded with players with expiring contracts – mostly mercenaries of varying stripes and rookies with modest potential. Such a roster will be full of people with something to prove, but there’s a reason many of the players aren’t highly coveted around the league beyond the expiration of their deals. The point guard depth is particularly worrisome, leaving the team vulnerable to what happened last season when Duhon broke down after the all-star break. 

As odd as it sounds, efficient shooting within the context of a well-orchestrated D'Antoni offense is a weakness (which is why the team wanted to draft Stephen Curry). There are several gunners capable of going off on a given evening, but very few efficient scorers outside of Gallinari, Al Harrington and Robinson, and only Gallinari seems well-matched to the ball-movement ethos of D’Antoni’s system.

Last year's team also had a leadership deficit, especially after Duhon started to falter in the second half of the year, and had a hard time finishing in close games. (Quentin Richardson has been the butt of jokes for a while, but he played substantial minutes last season because D'Antoni liked the leadership qualities he did bring when he was on the floor). Some feel the issue will only get worse with so many expiring deal players focused on getting their next deal.

I have more faith than most media and fans regarding the coaching staff's ability to reign in any wayward tendencies on the part of this group -- D'Antoni did a rather good job of keeping most of the players last year on the same page. But it will be interesting to see how effectively the team takes to Gallinari as the new golden boy, and it's imperative that Duhon stay healthy for most of the season.  

What are the primary goals for the upcoming season?

The Knicks have to make the playoffs, or at the very least make a credible run and generate some excitement in order to be an attractive destination for free agents in 2010. The mission is identical to last season's, except falling out of the playoffs doesn't even produce the consolation prize of a high draft pick, as the 2010 pick belongs to Utah. The team had a fine run in the second half of last season for two months and stayed in a tight playoff race, but faltered badly down the stretch when injuries took their toll on Duhon, Gallinari, Robinson and Hughes. Even with a similar roster this season, expectations will be higher.

The drive for the playoffs will create some awkward conflicts with the mission to clear cap space: D'Antoni must play Eddy Curry, for example, in order to make him attractive in any future trades, at the possible expense of more productive minutes for Milicic and the development of Jordan Hill.  The coaching staff will also be showcasing Jeffries, but this isn't as onerous as it sounds (and I was a big Jeffries hater early last season), because Jared has (to his credit) made himself useful as a multi-position defender and offensive rebounder. 



These two Knicks are no longer on the team, and new faces are promising. Perhaps
the chants of "dee-fense!" will be rewarded this season.


How will the Knicks ever win playing Euro-ball and not playing any defense?

OK, so I stacked the deck with this question -- but it comes up with aggravating frequency in blogs and message boards. Even after years of success in Phoenix and a mostly admirable job with a patchwork of spare parts last season, the myths persist that because D'Antoni favors a fast-paced system that puts pressure on teams with offense and ball movement, somehow his ideal lab experiment on the court results in a glut of  1) European styled players and 2) indifferent defense. (Extra credit if you imply causality between point 1 and point 2!) 

It's true that last year's Knicks, by any standard, were dreadful defensively (23rd in defensive efficiency, 28th in eFG% allowed, 2.9 Blk% and 0.24 blocks/foul - the block numbers are less than half of most of the rest of the teams in the league). Historically, D'Antoni's Phoenix teams were most effective defensively through unorthodox means, but the system broke down last year for the Knicks because of the lack of any interior presence, the poor help defense, and especially toward the end of the year, poor transition defense. 

Unless Lee, Robinson and Harrington count as honorary Euros, however, this defensive futility isn't a Euro or D'Antoni specialty -- it was simply a function of personnel. The coaching staff isn't blameless, but with injuries, player turnover, and lack of size, it was difficult to put together effective lineups that could get stops.

There is purportedly an increased emphasis on playing defense in this year's training camp (help defense in particular), and irony of ironies, an offensively-challenged European player (Darko) is going to be one of the key players in providing an interior presence. Another one of those dastardly international players, Gallinari, shows above average intelligence with defensive positioning and reading screens. The coaching staff has explicitly stated a goal of being in the middle of the pack in terms of defensive eFG%. That would be a major step forward and could make the difference in winning close games and challenging for a playoff spot.

Projection: 37-45. Despite the optimism in training camp and a likely breakout year for Gallo, I worry there isn't quite enough experience and talent to get this team to .500, which will likely be the minimum required for a playoff spot in a tougher Eastern conference where most of the teams have improved. It will take an increased level of production from an unexpected source (Wilson Chandler, Eddy Curry, Toney Douglas) to get the Knicks to that level. The team is going to be more entertaining to watch in 2009-10, however, even with the media much more focused on what happens the following summer

Posted by BK at 10/2/2009 10:02 PM
Categories: uncategorized
Tags: D'Antoni Gallinari nyknicks
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