1 W 6 L: Dissecting A Rough Start

I'm not surprised by 1-6. Really. 

An early look at the schedule showed it was likely the team would be 3-4 or 4-3 if it played well, 2-5 or worse if it played poorly. Yes, the teams they've played aren't a threat to crack the top 5 in the power rankings (including Cleveland at present), but road games and bad matchups (Sixers, Bucks) made the current state of affairs entirely conceivable. Only the loss to the Pacers at home counts as a real giveaway in my opinion.

Now what I didn't expect was falling behind by massive margins out of the gate in five out of seven games. But even that, you could argue, is an extension of similar stretches of play last season (especially once the team had fallen out of playoff contention). The problem is that it's November -- as coach D'Antoni pointed out after the last game, we're not in game 55 of the season. The players should be feisty, spirited, energetic, have something to prove...not playing like they're tentative, lead-footed, not on the same page with teammates, mopey, easily discouraged, playing out the string.

(Or, to steal a line from twitter NBA colleague and Orlando fan @whatthenoelle, I shouldn't need a thesaurus this early in the season to describe all the different ways this team has been bad.)

For those advocating drastic measures: the coach and/or GM aren't going to lose their jobs soon. It's not going to happen. As dire as things look (and yes, the Bucks game was as painful as it gets), the team is going to have to move forward, with the players, coach, and system (mostly) as it is. They're going to have to find a way to get better, get more competitive, stay in games.

Here's the most alarming thing about SSOL, cap clearing version: this team doesn't like to run.

They hoist up shots quickly enough, and they're 6th in the league in pace after seven games. But after the first half of last season (tied mostly to Duhon's healthy back and fresh attitude with a new team and system, and Nate's great stretch of play mid-season), these Knicks don't seem to enjoy running very much...the ball sticks, it doesn't advance particularly quickly outside of the occasional one man break, and wings like Harrington, Hughes and Gallo don't outrace their counterparts in transition or off of made baskets with any distinction.

Teams have picked up on this, and unless they're firmly devoted to not getting caught up in running themselves, they seem to enjoy turning the tables and running it down the throat of the Knicks. Part of this is the complete lack of any interior defense, but the Knicks' curious relationship with running extends especially to transition defense, which was most alarmingly evident in the losses to the Sixers and Bucks (even the Bobcats in some stretches). Again, you saw this last year as well when the team started falling out of playoff contention, but a team with a fresh start and a new season should not fall so short on effort in the first seven games.

In the halfcourt, the team isn't dogging it on defense (as much as it may seem that way to casual observers): they actually seem more engaged in ball denial and pressure for significant portions of games (helped by Hughes' move to the starting lineup), and Lee in particular is more committed to positioning and deflecting passes. But it's too easy for teams to get the shot they want and/or penetrate with a little misdirection or running a few screens -- the gambling nature of Duhon and Hughes' defense has resulted in too many open lanes or unfavorable switches (with guards taking it at the bigs), and Lee's playing out of position at center continues to be an issue (especially since the guards' gambling means they're out of position for help).

The defensive issues snowball when the opponents start hitting shots. Suddenly, players lose track of their assignment right after something as simple as a switch or a show on a pick and roll (Harrington is notorious for "post-show" blindness -- is that a term? - in the way he loses his man). Poor communication on D exacerbates the issues and in a worst case scenario you have opponents driving for dunks at will, as Hakeem Warrick did in the Bucks game.

Some of this is tied to the fragile psyche of the team, where Knick players' heads droop faster than a dog's ears in the midday sun when shots aren't falling. And the shots are most definitely not falling, which points to the second most alarming feature of SSOL, cap clearing version: a crippled offense where the point guard can't make an elbow jumper and the 3 pointer as a weapon is failing miserably (as Knickerblogger points out, if you remove Gallinari, the Knicks are shooting 22.5 percent from the 3 pt line).

The team is also dead last in total rebounding rate and offensive rebounding rate in the league, and is 24th in the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Looking at individual four factors analyses for each game, the Knicks invariably shoot less free throws relative to field goals than their opponents...they just don't get to the line much. (some of this is arguably by design with a D'Antoni offense, but the lack of punch inside is still glaring). That combined with the poor shooting and rebounding fuels too many good chances for the opponents to get out for a quick score.

Individually, the most disappointing Knicks have been Chris Duhon and Wilson Chandler. It's obvious to the eye in the way they're playing: shooting and decision-making have been awful. Both players seem to be playing in mud, and in Chandler's case in particular, the willingness to settle for bad jumpers is alarming. It's early in the season, and you can say what you want about the limited upsides of these two, but it's reasonable to expect much more than sub-10 PERs: Duhon is 50th out of 56 point guards in the league, while Chandler is 43rd out of 49 small forwards according to Hollinger's numbers on ESPN.

There's so much more that could be said, but the optimist in me (yes, still alive) does surface and says it's seven games. Many fans are ready to hang it up after the first seven (there are some terribly ticked Wizards, Hornets, Jazz, Warriors, Wolves, and Sixer fans out there after last weekend), and misery sure does love company. But it's reasonable to expect that the shooting will improve. the soul searching will yield improved effort, and the team will be competitive again. But a big issue to be addressed by the coaching brain trust in the short term is what combination of lineups will produce that competitiveness.

Long term, once things stabilize slightly, whether the team will be good enough to win at a 30 to 35 win pace, or closer to a 20 to 24 win pace (or even less) is where the angst lies. I've complained all off-season about the lack of guard depth on this team with so little margin for error, and Duhon and Nate Robinson (when he returns) must be productive at something close to last year's numbers to get in the 30 win range. Especially since Hughes isn't likely to remain as efficient as he's been so far (one of the few pleasant surprises of the season).  I still pine for Stephen Curry or someone else that can shoot, especially when I see Curry hitting 15 footers off of pick and rolls or even Jodie Meeks torching the Knicks with 5 for 7 3 pointers the other night.

As for those calling for increased playing time for Toney Douglas and Marcus Landry, I approve to a point -- they sure looked good against the Bucks in garbage time. But I tend to go with Jeff Van Gundy's exhortation at the end of last Friday's Knicks-Cavs game: stats generated during the fourth quarter of 20 point blowouts shouldn't count. Tongue in cheek, of course, but let's not get carried away with the rooks until we see more of them. And let's hope D'Antoni gives them more of a chance in the games to come, along with Jordan Hill, and that these guys can produce. There aren't many other options that are likely to surface with the front office in a holding pattern.

Knicks vs Jazz, MSG, 7:30pm 

Tonight's game against the Jazz isn't likely to produce much relief, as bad as the Jazz have looked.  The point guard matchup vs Deron Williams will be a mismatch, though not of galactic proportions as it may first seem as Hughes is still a good defender against opposing PGs; the Knicks can take solace from a similarly lopsided matchup that they managed to overcome in their lone win against the Hornets a week ago. The key will be to get a little more production out of Harrington and the guards, to hold their own on the boards, and to keep the Jazz production outside of Williams and Boozer from getting out of hand. Either way, the Jazz are sitting pretty -- they improve their options with the Knick lottery pick, or they improve the position of their own pick, given the way their season is going.


 
Trackbacks
  • No trackbacks exist for this post.
Comments
  • No comments exist for this post.
Leave a comment

 Enter the above security code (required)

 Name

 Email (will not be published)

 Website

Your comment is 0 characters limited to 3000 characters.