Knicks By the Numbers: Quarter Season Report

We're 22 games into the season, and I've been spending a lot of time looking at the production of the team and individual players. It's been a bit tricky trying to parse the identity of this year's team and make comparisons to last year, because this season so far has featured two very different stretches: the awful nine losses in ten games start, followed by the more encouraging 6 wins in 12 games, including some quality wins over good opponents.

In this post, I list some of the more interesting observations I've found, with some supporting numbers. For the advanced stats, I've made use of numbers from the following sites: Knickerblogger, 82games.com, Hoopdata, and Basketball-reference.com, with an occasional look at Hollinger's stuff on ESPN. (I'm also indebted to Kevin Pelton's work at Basketball Prospectus for some of the insights on the guards) There are multiple primers on advanced statistics on the web (and glossaries for terms at all the aforementioned sites), and Empty the Bench has just authored a fine post, Advanced Basketball Statistics 101

One note:  I've chosen to use Alternate PER (player efficiency rating) rather than the more commonly referenced PER as a catch-all stat to look at how the Knicks compare to other players at their position and across the league generally. Alternate PER, simplistically speaking, tweaks the PER formula to give more credit to players who create their own shot or create shots for others. For example, David Lee ranks higher on PER than Al Harrington, but on APER Harrington comes out a little higher because less of his baskets are assisted. You can read an interesting and much bettter explanation of alternate PER here

Also, these observations are going to be focused on the offensive contributions of the team and individual players.  I'll have a separate post on the defense this weekend.

* The Knicks have gotten their offense back on track, thanks primarily to better shooting and avoiding turnovers.  A snapshot look at the four factors (eFG%, TO%, ORR, and FT/FG) has the Knicks now up to 19th in the league in offensive efficiency; earlier in the year, they were languishing near the bottom of the league. The biggest improvement has come in their shooting (12th in eFG%) and their ability to limit turnovers (8th in TO%). They have improved their offensive rebounding in recent games but still rank toward the bottom of the league in that area, as well as getting to the free throw line.

*  24 Seconds or less, not 7 seconds or less. This refers to a recent quip by Coach D'Antoni regarding how he's had to slow the pace and not have the team run as much because his personnel isn't conducive to the style of his renowned Phoenix Suns teams. The Knicks still get a shot off  within the first 10 seconds of the shot clock on 40% of their possessions this season,  but this is down from 45% of possessions last year. The percentage of shots taken with 8 seconds or less left on the clock is roughly the same as last year (29%), but this year's team is converting at a higher percentage, and a greater proportion of those shots is assisted. It appears the Knick ball movement has improved later in the shot clock and resulted in better success in converting those opportunities.

The Knicks are still 5th in the league in Pace with the nature of their offense, but they don't push the fast break opportunities the way they did last season. This year's team is 28th in the league, with only 9.5 fastbreak points per game (contrasted to the Golden State Warriors, who lead the league with 23.3 fastbreak ppg).

*  Al Harrington and Larry Hughes are having years harkening back to career highlights. It's early in the season, and so a regression to the mean may be coming, but so far Al and Larry have taken their game up to a level not seen since their best days in Atlanta and Washington respectively. Al is 30th in the league in APER at 20.25 and 10th among power forwards playing significant minutes for their teams; last year, he was 24th among power forwards. He is still a tunnel-visioned scorer and rebounds weakly for his position, but in the recent winning streak he's shown a greater effort on the boards, and has even passed and handed off the ball to other scorers with much greater effort than ever seen in his time in a Knick uniform.

Hughes, meanwhile, remains a very hit or miss shooter, capable of a 1 for 9 shooting night just as easily as 8 for 18. He is 16th among shooting guards with an APER of 15.73; league average at the position is 12.4, with 3 tiers: Wade/Bryant with 27-ish APERs, followed by Ginobli/Brandon Roy/Igoudala/Carter/Joe Johnson in the 20s. Hughes is in the third tier, just behind Jamal Crawford, Ben Gordon, James Harden, Jason Terry, Eric Gordon, Jason Richardson, Willie Green and J.R. Smith. 

Where Hughes has stood out at his position has been his playmaking ability more than his scoring; many Knick fans have clamored for him to replace Duhon as the starting PG because he has generally been more aggressive in pushing the ball within the halfcourt offense, and on fast breaks. His assist rate (23.87) among shooting guards playing significant minutes trails only Delonte West and Mike Miller, and his turnover rate leads his position (only 9.92, compared to the average of 10.92 for shooting guards). I still think Duhon is a more reliable playmaker and more creative in creating pick and roll opportunities, but Larry has done an excellent job of taking over the offense in several games (in particular, the recent wins over Atlanta and Portland).

* Gallinari is shooting the lights out, but needs to continue to diversify his game. Much has been made of Gallo's impressive outside shooting -- a league leading number of 3 pointers made after 21 games (62 of 138, for 44.9%, 10th in the league). At the start of the season, though, his movement on the offensive end was mostly limited to parking himself in a corner waiting for a pass. He's gradually gotten more aggressive in all aspects of his game: driving a little more, hitting the boards, hustling to a greater degree (his deflections and loose ball recoveries in the Portland game were very encouraging).

As D'Antoni has pointed out, it's taken time for Gallo to get comfortable with playing with a healed back, after compensating so heavily for it last season in his limited time. Looking at his shot locations compared to league averages, Gallo has the profile of a relatively one dimensional spot up shooter -- he attempts and makes barely half the league average of shots at the rim and out to 15 feet; he's close to average in long two pointers and way above average in 3 pointers attempted and made. 

More than diversifying his shot selection, I look forward to Gallo becoming a much better playmaker with some seasoning. Currently his assist rate of 10.43 is 34th among small forwards and a world away from the leaders at his position: Lebron (23.37). Artest (22.01), Hedo (20.91) and Battier (20.47). I see no reason why Gallo can't eventually be one of those leaders as he polishes his ballhandling and his offensive game.

*  David Lee has maintained his offensive excellence and improved his range and playmaking.  As noted earlier, Lee has a robust APER of 20.03 (just behind Al's). His offensive numbers are slightly down from career highs, owing to the increased number of long two pointers attempted (3.6 per game on average, twice as much as last season), where he's shooting 39 percent. On the other hand, Lee looks more comfortable this season keeping the offense running from the high post, and his current assist rate (13.0) is a career high, though his turnover rate (13.7) is also up from the last 2 seasons, though not out of line given his usage. 

I would personally like to see Lee not always settle for long jumpers, and I hope he can get his offensive rebounding numbers back up a bit (they've suffered from the increased emphasis D'Antoni has placed on Lee at the high post, and getting the players back in transition defensively). But on offense, Lee is one player I don't worry about.

*  Chris Duhon and Wilson Chandler are establishing the lows at their respective positions offensively. It couldn't all be unicorns and rainbows for these Knicks, could it? (otherwise they wouldn't be 7-15). Duhon started out the year in the worst shooting slump of his career, and is only now starting to recover (the 25 point, 10 assist game at Atlanta gave a sense of hope, but it still feels flukish). Chandler, meanwhile, has a TS% of 48.4, which places him among the worst five shooters at his position, along with Trevor Ariza, and surpassed in futility only by Vladimir Radmanovic and Trenton Hassell for players with over 30 minutes a game.

Duhon's troubles have been particularly maddening: his APER of 9.41 keeps him in the elite company of players like Rafer Alson, Jannero Pargo, Anthony Carter, Kirk Hinrich, DJ Augustin and Steve Blake. Last season, Duhon started strong and then faded badly after the all-star break, but his 12.94 APER was just slightly below average. The most peculiar reversals statistically have come in both shooting and turnovers: last season, Duhon was a great shooter for a PG but terribly turnover-prone. He was 11th among PGs with 56.9 TS%, behind notables like Nash, Calderon, Nelson and Paul. His turnover rate, meanwhile, put him at the bottom of the PG group (the only PGs averaging over 20 minutes who were worse were Anthony Carter, Javaris Crittenton, and Earl Watson).

This season, Duhon's shooting has gone off a cliff, while his turnover rate has improved dramatically, where he is now in the top 20. With all these dire numbers having been brought up, I do feel Duhon will regress to the mean in a positive way as far as his shooting. He may not be a quality starting point guard, but he is still the best playmaker the Knicks have for the time being.

As far as Chandler, the only solution may be what D'Antoni has done in recent games, which is to limit Wilson's minutes and shot attempts: he's shown slightly more restraint on taking the long two pointers. In fairness to him, he's still showing signs of recovering from off-season surgery: there have been drives he's taken where he would have exploded for a dunk or swooping layup last season, and this year he struggles to finish. One area where Wilson has improved with the help of his coaches is his second jump near the rim: he's gotten an increased number of tips on the offensive glass of his own missed shots.

Summary.  It's hard to say where the Knicks are going with such peculiar trends in individual offensive play among the core rotation. It's easy to be cynical and say Harrington and Hughes will regress, and there won't be enough improvement elsewhere to make up the difference. As long as the team maintains a limited physical presence inside and doesn't get to the free throw line much, it's hard to see them sustaining the recent good play.

With that said, D'Antoni seems to have a core rotation of players that complements each other well, and players like Gallo, Wilson and even Duhon can only get better. The coach also seems to understand how to manage Hughes' tendencies on offense and isn't afraid to pull him when he starts gunning inefficiently. I'm curious to see how this latest road trip against middle tier teams pans out in terms of maintaining the good trends and mitigating the weaknesses.





 
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Comments

  • 12/19/2009 1:57 PM Italian Stallion wrote:
    Great stuff.

    Wilson has been improving. His pre season and October were horrible. His November was in line with last year, but he has been way more efficient in December.
    Reply to this
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