Return From Exile: What Next?

So why the long stint on the bench, and was it justified? More than a few fans and the media seemed eager to chew on this question, perhaps too much so -- I myself got involved in a few exchanges on twitter and threads on other sites. Nate (again to his substantial credit) chose not to complain throughout his exile, behaving very professionally, not giving the media any inflammatory material, and staying prepared for this opportunity by continuing to work with the assistant coaches. The fire was mostly fueled by Nate's agents, who broadcast a trade request to the media and questioned the coach's tactics and motivations pointedly (a bit too much so, in my opinion).
I maintain a moderate but firm stance on everything that has happened. I supported the benching, and the coach's quest to define a short rotation that could establish an identity for a struggling team (both in its focus on defense and general chemistry). I also supported the need for the coach to carry through his tinkering with the short rotation for a period of 10 to 12 games, because the more liberal experimentation and lineup juggling of the first ten games was so counterproductive to developing continuity and identity. The results were positive for most of December, particularly with the strong contributions of Hughes and Jeffries to the defense, but the team sputtered offensively after Hughes' injury (and Douglas is still a work in progress).
Just as Hughes escaped the bench in the early part of the season with Nate's injury, so did Nate take his place back in the rotation this time around. There were strong, rational, basketball-related reasons for minimizing Nate's role in the last month when the team went in a more defense-oriented direction. There were clearly character and personality issues that served as the catalyst for the move, but D'Antoni has largely been consistent with his willingness to change things up when the effectiveness of a particular approach starts to falter (even his loyalty to Duhon, which detractors cite constantly, was already eroding with the increased minutes of Hughes at PG in several games). We can quibble over the specifics of his lineup strategies -- I would have liked for Nate to make an appearance against the Nets or the Spurs -- but at this point, we can only hope everyone involved can use what's happened as positive motivation to strengthen the team's playoff drive in 2010.
Some observations and things to look for now that Nate is back:
* Nate's "debut" the other night would have been a smashing success for his first half play alone, and the way he made an attempt to distribute the ball and get other players involved. What was most electrifying about his second half play, was how his takeover of the game didn't really take place until midway through the 4th quarter. He fueled the comeback by pushing the ball initially (2 assists to Harrington and one to Gallinari), and then scored 10 points in the last 2 minutes and another 11 in the overtime. By the end, Nate was mostly taking it one-on-one because the Hawks had no one who could stop him. The most breathtaking play was a shoulder fake of Marvin Williams on the right wing, leading Williams to lean in anticipation of the jumper, then blowing by him to elevate on a quick, soaring, high arcing one-handed layin. (NBA players on twitter like Chris Paul were cheering along too).
* But as exciting as Nate's scoring was, I was most excited by his defensive contributions and ability to be on the floor when a strong defensive stand was made by the Knicks. Nate was a +18 against the Hawks, the first time he has had a positive +/- when playing over 12 minutes this season. What people don't realize is that Nate has had stretches of high scoring play and significant minutes earlier this season, but his *team* wasn't outscoring the other team while he was on the floor -- even when he had spectacular stretches like his 22 points in 24 minutes against Orlando. That's not all Nate's fault of course -- the coaching staff had to figure out a way to get the most out of his contributions and minimize the liabilities he provides on the defensive end, *and* get Nate to focus more defensively.
You could see this clearly in the Hawks game, where Nate's unit was -9 for six minutes in the 3rd quarter, but produced a +13 in the fourth quarter. D'Antoni went with a matchup zone for most of the 4th quarter, and very effectively switched it up from time to time with a man defense to confuse the Hawks, with Jeffries roving on help. Nate did his part by keeping track of his assignments and not gambling reckessly, and taking advantage of turnovers generated by the frontline to push the ball for quick baskets. Nate's focus on both ends was especially pleasing to see when he broke up an alley-oop to Josh Smith in transition after losing the ball on the other end.
* Another thing I hope carries over to future games: Nate going to the rim. Nate has always been dangerous for his ability to make jumpers and take it strong to the basket, and my feeling is that his decline toward the end of last season came from his decreased ability to score at the basket. How much of this was defenses compensating, and how much of it was Nate settling for jumpers, was hard to determine. But through Nate's first 13 games this season, the tendency to settle for jumpers was alarming. Last season, 30 percent of Nate's attempts and 41% of his made shots were at the rim. This season (prior to the Hawks game), 20 percent of his attempts and 19 percent of made shots were at the rim. Nate shot 60% close in last year, only 39% this year pre-benching.
Against the Hawks, Nate was 9 for10 at the rim. Outside of the strong defensive stand in the fourth quarter limiting the Hawks to 19 points, that statistic was my favorite part of the boxscore post-game.
* Now that Nate is playing more and seems to have his focus where the coaching staff wants it to be, it will be very interesting to see how the offensive and defensive numbers shift. D'Antoni confirmed as much in his post-game comments, saying "We'll probably score more, and maybe the other team will score more as well" in reference to what Nate's return means. He seemed particularly pleased with how well the zone worked, as a means of "hiding" Nate from any mismatches or isolations. I'll be interested to see how Nate is used when the opponent is potent on offense both inside and outside and has long perimeter players (Orlando most prominently, the Thunder and Raptors to a lesser degree).
* Another telling quote from the postgame that has implications for how the team plays in future games: Nate (in response to a question about his approach to taking it to the rim against the likes of Horford and Smith) referred to learning from Isiah Thomas about taking the ball hard on offense, and having that create passing opportunities. This is obviously a shift from the pass-first playmaking approach of Duhon, but given the limitations of that approach in generating offense when the PG isn't shooting well enough to keep defenses honest, Nate can offer another look. The coach can also do more of what he did last year, which was to play Duhon and Robinson together and effectively split the floor into a "pick and roll side" with Duhon/Lee on one end and an "isolation side" with Nate on the other. I'm most curious to see how well Nate distributes the ball once defenses start adjusting to Nate's tendencies on offense.
Knicks vs Pacers, MSG, 6pm
The Knicks have a good opportunity to build on all the positives of the Hawk game with a home game against an (ostensibly) weaker opponent. The Pacers have struggled with injuries and looked like the worst team in the league on some nights, but they've also given the Knicks fits in the two less than artful games they've played so far this year. Expect the game tonight to be more of the same ugliness, though if Nate can get going again and involve the other shooters more, they can make life easier for themselves against a weirdly fast paced team that has been atrocious on offense without Danny Granger.

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