Several writers (New York-based and national) are already speculating about the Knicks' playoff chances versus the other five teams fighting for the final few seeds, but I think it's still too early for that. It's been nice to see the Knicks establish some distance from their 1-9 start, but the last six games have shown that this team still doesn't have much margin for error. Poor, uninspired play puts the team right back where it was at the start of the season -- offensively challenged, floundering, lacking confidence and a strong identity.

The victory against Charlotte at home two weeks ago was a high water mark -- a quality win against a team that has since established itself as the hottest team of 2010, and that win was full of strong and poised performances from virtually every Knick. But since then, the wins have been ugly (76ers, Pistons at home) and the losses have been one-sided and uglier (Raptors, Thunder, Pistons at Detroit). The victory against the Pistons on Martin Luther King Day was a good way to temporarily break the slump, but it continued to illuminate certain issues. 

Specifically:

* Guard play is up and down, to put it mildly. Chris Duhon has regressed to his early season shooting struggles, and his turnovers (one of the few things he's done well to minimize) have started to creep up. Nate Robinson hasn't been a paragon of consistency either, and Larry Hughes escaped the doghouse very briefly in a weekend game against the Pistons to give the Knicks nothing. The light at the end of the tunnel here is that Nate had his best all-around game last Monday, looking totally engaged in involving his teammates on offense, and acquitting himself well on defense (a rarity this season). D'Antoni has been parsimonious with his praise for Nate all season, but he firmly (if grudgingly) acknowledged how well Nate played.

* Related to the guard play (though not a guard-specific issue, as we'll see in a minute), turnovers have been an increasing issue for the Knicks. The team has been right around league average all season with a turnover rate (TOR) of 13.5, and had a TOR of 20 or higher only twice in the first 34 games. In the last 7 games, the team has had a 20+ TOR in three of them. Knick opponents scored an average of just under 16 points off Knick TOs in the first 34 games; they're scoring closer to 19 points off those TOs the last seven games.

*  In line with the ragged play of the last few games, the players are getting lazy fouls more often and getting into foul trouble. Though overall fouls haven't spiked up dramatically, several of the games have had at least 2 core Knicks with four or five fouls. Jeffries has always been foul prone, but the issues have extended to Lee, Chandler and even Nate occasionally. For a team with a short rotation, the foul issues make things that much worse.

*  Duhon is everyone's favorite scapegoat, as he is the point guard, but the player that's caught my eye for up and down play recently has been Chandler. He seemed to turn a corner at the start of 2010: better shot selection, more forays to the basket, more displays of his freakish athleticism, better defense (on his man and in help situations). Just as quickly though, he lapsed into a funk that coincided with the recent laggard play of the team. The table below, which summarizes Chandler's averages for 2 different stretches in 2010, spells this out:

Wilson's high points were his first 3 games of the new year, specifically spectacular games against the Hawks and Bobcats. Now we're talking about pretty small sample sizes here, so it's fair to point out that perhaps those great games were outliers, and his recent play is more of a regression to the mean. One column worth noting, though, is the turnover rate, which has spiked in recent games. Typically, the Knicks leading in that category are the guards (Duhon, Robinson) as well as Jeffries, one of the most turnover prone players in the league. Yet Wilson in recent games has been approaching them, and his 22.1 turnover rate in the five game stretch would lead all small forwards in the league by a wide margin if it extended to the season.

The coach seems to think it's a lack of focus and energy with Wilson, and perhaps it's the January blahs afflicting a lot of the league that's responsible. But I also think he's been forced out of his comfort zone a bit more. The guard issues have forced the forwards (Lee, Chandler, Gallinari) to do more playmaking, and combined with other teams keying in on Wilson more, are forcing him to make plays that he's not necessarily adept at making. To Wilson's credit, he isn't settling for the long jumpers as much as he was early in the season, but when he's cut off from attacking the rim, he tends to linger too long before making a decision and/or not making good decisions on his passes.

The first half of Monday's game against the Pistons looked like a return to (better) form, as Wilson went 5 for 7 for 14 points and looked smooth and confident. But in the third quarter, the wheels came off again: 0-2, 2 turnovers (including an awful sideline inbound pass that turned into a Piston fastbreak), minus 16 for the quarter, and he was abused badly on defense by the Pistons' frontline players as the Pistons erased the Knicks' 14 point lead. Even Ben Wallace got off a Hakeem-worthy turnaround jumper off Chandler -- Ben Wallace! D'Antoni finally had enough and sat Wilson for the entire fourth quarter in favor of Nate + a "long" lineup of Jeffries-Lee-Gallinari-Harrington.

So yeah, I'm concerned about the guards, but I'm also hoping the three day break helps Wilson snap out of his funk. Especially since he's likely to spend good portions of the next two games guarding Kobe and Dirk. 

*  On the positive front, I'm as thrilled as most Knick fans that Jordan Hill has gotten some extended minutes, and looked good for most of them. He still looks rather raw -- there is a lot of extraneous movement on his post moves, his ballhandling is shaky at best, and his aggression sometimes works against him. But his liveliness on the court and especially around the boards has been a positive, he has a decent jumper, and unlike Bender, he looks like he can provide some genuine protection around the rim with a little more experience. Having said that, it's odd that a coach/GM favorite like Bender lost his rotation spot so suddenly, even though its justified by Bender's erratic play and inability to contribute so far apart from outside shooting. I still can't help wonder whether Hill is being showcased in some way for a trade deadline move.

Not feeling great about this one, facing an angry and physically superior Lakers team that rules every possible statistical category against the Knicks. The only positive the Knicks could exploit is possible tiredness from last night's intense game; they may as well as pray for Kobe's back to act up. However, the atmosphere at the Garden will probably get the Lakers through any fatigue or minor injuries, and the Knicks unfortunately have a tendency to shrink in high profile games at home like this one, where the buzz (more press, more celebrities) seems to distract the players. Even the bench, a past weakness for the Lakers, has been playing better as of late, making it unlikely the Knicks can pick up some cheap points while the regulars are resting.

The Lakers do have issues with smaller, explosive guards, making this the perfect stage for Nate. If Nate can build on the hyperfocused, in control play he showed in last Monday's Pistons game, he can give the Knicks a chance. My main hope for tonight's game is for the team to play like it belongs on the floor with the Lakers for at least a half -- the game at Staples in December looked that way on the scoreboard, but the Lakers never looked like they had to break a sweat in that one, even when they lost the lead briefly in the first half. The Knicks need to keep the pace down, limit the turnovers, not give too much on the inside, and limit the damage done by Kobe. Give the fans not wearing Laker jerseys something to cheer for. That's not asking for too much, right?

UPDATE: Adding to the surliness of the Lakers: lost luggage! And Matt chimes in with another fine piece on the heart of darkness lurking and threatening to overwhelm the Knicks tonight. Stay strong, Knicks.