Unfortunately, the signs aren't good, and they're getting worse.

The Knicks got off to a great start -- quality ball movement and exceptional shooting (11 of 15 to start), coupled with swarming defense involving a lot of double teams in the post -- quickly produced a 16 point lead. The Raptors started chipping away though, and continued an unfortunate trend of Knick opponents scoring prolifically in the second quarter, typically building on runs against the second unit. (In 13 games in 2010 so far, the Knicks have allowed an average of 27 points in the 2nd, while scoring an average of 21). The Knick lead was cut to 4 at the half, and the loss of Jeffries to a hyperextended knee cast a dark cloud on the Knicks' chances of pulling it out.

To the team's credit, they hung in even as the lead evaporated, thanks to solid scoring from Robinson (14 points, 5 assists), Harrington (20 points, 7 rebounds), and Lee (29 points, 18 rebounds), and effort on defense that was shaky but just good enough to keep the game close. The Knicks also benefited greatly from sloppy play from the Raptors, getting 27 points off of 21 turnovers, holding their own in the paint despite getting outrebounded, and getting to the free throw line and making their FTs. 

The Raptors, in turn, got outstanding play from Bosh (27 points, 15 rebounds) and Calderon (12 points, 7 assists, +17), and a wakeup game from Hedo Turkoglu (26 points, 11 rebounds), as well as very timely contributions from bench players (Antoine Wright and Amir Johnson) to make up for an off game from injured Knick-killer Bargnani (who destroyed the Knicks in his last Garden appearance). 

It looked grim when the Raps eventually pulled out to 89-83 and 97-92 leads in the fourth quarter, but then came the Knicks' best run since the first quarter, scoring ten straight to take the lead 102-97. Included in that run were a 3 pointer by Harrington off a broken play, and a fantastic pass by Nate on a pick and slip to Lee for a dunk with 1:47 left. 

The Raptors responded with eight straight in the next minute and a half to take a 105-102 lead. Here was where you saw all the signs that the Knicks are a middling lottery team that can't pull these types of games out: 

1)  fouling Hedo beyond the 3 point line (admittedly a dubious call) on a reach-in 28 feet from the basket

2) going one on one on two straight possessions (Nate and Al) with plenty of time left on the shot clock, and coming up empty 

3) giving up a tip to an unboxed out Hedo after getting a stop on Bosh, and then giving up a transition basket to Jarett Jack after Al's empty possession 

4) missing a layup (Lee) and then giving up a basket to Bosh where he was allowed to drive left by Chandler, with no trap when he got the ball, and inadequate help once he started his move to his preferred side. Jeffries was badly missed here.

Despite all this, the Knicks had one more chance to tie or win after a basket by Lee and a missed FT by Jack, but the last possession with 8 seconds left was the capper to two dreadful minutes of execution. The play was set up for Nate to run off a staggered screen at the foul line and receive the ball for either a drive or kick out. Jack effectively jammed Nate (it looked like a pretty good hold, but one the refs tend not to call), and the closest screener (Chandler) didn't step out to help until it was too late. 

Gallo was forced to inbound to Harrington out near the halfcourt line to avoid a violation, and Al drove, bad knees and all, and threw up an ugly runner while bowling over Jack to get a charge and end the game.

Some other observations:

*  D'Antoni made the interesting choice to sit Duhon for the final eight minutes and play Nate the entire fourth quarter, even though Nate mostly seemed more interested in creating for himself than playmaking for most of the game. I assume some of this was dictated by the Raptors' size, and some by the need for Nate's offense and athleticism. It paid off for a good portion of the quarter, but I can't help but wonder whether having Duhon for the final couple of possessions (along with Nate) would have produced better shots.

*  If Jeffries ends up having to miss extended time with the knee injury, there's no kind way to put it -- the team will lose 50 games at a minimum, especially since he anchors the team's most effective defensive schemes. and manages as best as he can to mitigate the team's lack of interior presence and ability to protect the rim.

* Speaking of injuries, the team made it through around 30 or so games mostly healthy, apart from Nate and Larry Hughes replacing each other on the bench after successive injuries.  Every team deals with injuries in a long season, but this team's margin of error for competent play is particularly impacted by injuries, and the team's descent has been hastened by injuries to Wilson, Nate, and maybe most damagingly, Al. All three labored to some degree over the course of last night, with Will looking the best and Nate having his moments though clearly not at his strongest. Al annoys the fan base even when he's healthy with his heads-down offense, but since getting hurt, he's been particularly slovenly on both ends of the floor. His rebounding and offense have suffered, to the detriment of the second unit and the overall offense.

*  Jordan Hill continues to get significant minutes, but last night was one of his poorer performances -- missing 4 shots in 7 minutes and looking very shaky on his dribble handoffs and handling the ball when confronted with even mild pressure. Just part of the ups and downs of being a rookie, and he's still likely to get a bigger role in succeeding games with Jeffries' injury.

*  Gallo had a very solid game with 18 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists, and 2 steals, and he seemed to be responsible for at least a few more deflections as he capably filled in for Jeffries as a disruptor of sorts on defense. His offense in the second half was less noteworthy, missing 6 of his last 7 shots after making 4 of his first 5. Gallo continues to try and figure out ways to create offense when he's crowded at the 3 point line, and at this point it continues to be a work in progress -- an occasional highlight worthy drive, mixed with more awkward step back jumpers and runners.

*  David Lee shot 10 for 16 at the rim, but the rest of the Knicks (at the rim and within 10 feet) shot 12 for 31. Defensively, the Knicks were able to break their recent inability to defend the 3 (apart from a flukish 3 for 3 from Wright), but yielding 54% eFG in a 102 possession game and getting outrebounded isn't the recipe for success most nights. Only the turnovers and the Raptors' exhaustion and wavering attention made this one winnable. Harsh assessment, but this is what happens when the Knicks don't inspire confidence in their ability to control the pace of a game or make stops once their shots aren't dropping.

* This loss hurt a great deal. But cushioning the blow just a little was Hedo's hilarious postgame interview on the Raptors feed. Ball!

On to the next one. I hoped the next four games (Washington twice, Minnesota and Milwaukee) could all be wins, but there are no guarantees anymore. At this point a split of those games, and some measure of good news on the health front, would be welcome. The good news (such as it is) is that there are 2 back to backs in the next week, but after those there are ample days off including the break.