Wizards Notes, Bucks Preview, and Thoughts On The Point Guard Conundrum
The win over the Wizards looked very much like the loss to the Timberwolves over the weekend -- the home team punching and counterpunching and staying with a road team that had played a lot of games in a few days, until the road team ran out of gas. (And yes, I know using a boxing metaphor to describe an 88 possession game with big stretches of listless play from both teams is pushing it). It was still nice to see the Knicks come to life, and while everyone is talking about Nate Robinson playing well enough to take over the starting role at point guard, Al Harrington's return was huge, and his 2 three pointers in the third quarter to give the Knicks the lead for good were probably the biggest shots of the game.
A few other notes:
* Knicks made half of their three pointers, and got 37 shots at the rim. Though they could have done a better job of finishing close to the basket (59.5%), much of that was Jared Jeffries' overambitiousness with a few attempted folllow-baskets that he may have been better advised to tip to teammates. Nate had 4 of his 10 makes at the rim, an excellent ratio that I hope he carries over to his new starting role.
* Fifteen combined free throws for the *game* from both teams, which doesn't exactly speak to the willingness of either team to be physical. (during the Wizards' win over the Knicks last Saturday, they didn't attempt their 3rd FT until the second half either)
* One of Harrington's pet plays is a spinning dribble head on into traffic that elicits howls of anguish from a loud subset of Knick fans, probably because it's an all or nothing play that's just as likely to end in an ugly turnover as it is to produce a basket. (It is also such a heads down play that no matter how many opposing players collapse to stop the drive, the idea of open teammates receiving a pass is purely theoretical). Imagine this type of drive with Al's shaky knees, and it becomes a high wire act with lead boots. And yet. When he did get a layup toward the end of the 3rd quarter on one of these drives, I was inexplicably happy. Maybe because it signaled a willingness on the part of the Knicks to finally start taking it to the basket and not settle for jumpshots. You take what you can get and worry about the style points some other time.
* Nate had a very good all-around game and had only 2 turnovers, but they were two of the louder turnovers in the game -- one an attempt to thread the needle on the fastbreak into a crowd of 3 defenders that Magic himself couldn't have pulled off, the other a lazy pass in a half court set that was stolen by Randy Foye. Give Nate credit for this, though -- on the second turnover, he hustled back to take the ball away from Foye on a driving layup, and managed to keep the ball inbounds and recover it. It was a fantastic display of athleticism on the part of Nate, except unlike the last time he pulled off something similar at home (his fastbreak block of Rondo in November), he didn't preen to the crowd. Just dribbled it down the court to reset the offense. Nice.
* The Wizards have a lot of good players capable of making plays that make you wonder how the team can be struggling the way it is. Wednesday night it was Blatche and Haywood that took turns carving up the Knicks, until the team as a whole wilted in the face of the Knick second half run. The Knick run (or Wizard collapse depending on your inclination) is documented in full by Kyle at Truth About It, and he was none too happy about it. (A very similar sequence could have been constructed for the Knicks' collapse against the Wolves last Sunday, except it would have mainly consisted of Love and Jefferson putting up baskets against the Knick frontline).
Changing of the Point Guard: A Closer Look
The big news from an otherwise lackluster mid-season game between the Knicks and Wizards was the demotion of Chris Duhon, something many Knick fans have been clamoring for almost the entire season. Based on shooting alone (32 percent in the month of January), Chris has been digging a pretty deep hole for himself. Yet D'Antoni continued to defend him as the starting PG, which led to some gentle mocking in the press ("he does everything well but shoot!").
Upfront I can say that I've always felt Chris is a backup and not starter-level point guard in the league; however, for this team and the type of offense D'Antoni likes to run, maintaining him as a starter was a reasonable position, given the lack of alternatives. Nate has not had as good a season as last year (the odd 41 point game notwithstanding), and only recently has he shown signs of paying attention to all the details of the game necessary to earn major minutes. Hughes has shown signs of getting worse after each injury and brings his own issues with his extremely ineffiicient shooting, and iike Nate is a volume shooter who can quickly shoot his team out of a game. And Toney Douglas still can't seem to use the limited minutes he's gotten so far to show that he can be even a reasonable backup playmaker.
The flip side of poor volume shooting is extreme timidity in shooting and playmaking when the first few shots don't fall, which has been Duhon's problem in his extended slump. Even though Duhon does other small things well (particularly on defense as part of the various zones and help defenses the Knicks run), many fans can't see past the lack of confidence Duhon projects, whether it's coming up short on his 3 point shots or being unable to finish at the rim. As a result, his demotion has been greeted with hosannas from people that felt a benching was overdue, including voices as sober and rational as Knickerblogger.
The only issue I would take with the angle taken on Duhon's demotion is that this isn't quite the sudden move it's been portrayed as -- D'Antoni has been gradually tinkering with Duhon's playing time, and coming to realize that the same player he played for an average of 38 to 40 minutes the first 3 months of last season doesn't always warrant extended PT. Last season, Duhon's games with limited minutes were almost exclusively injury related; this season, D'Antoni has kept Duhon's minutes in the 30 to 35 minute range when there are other alternatives (Hughes early in the season, Robinson more recently), because he realizes he can only get so much mileage from him.
Still, 30 + minutes from a 30% shooting guard is a lot of minutes, but as long as D'Antoni was committed to a tight rotation, he was willing to live with the shooting if Duhon's playmaking and other modest contributions were positive. I didn't have any issue with this because Duhon generally didn't do anything to *hurt* the team as part of the starting unit; the team's recent troubles were more related to how poorly the second unit played, and how poorly the team finished games.
I looked more closely at how Chris' contributions in the starting lineup broke out by using numbers from popcornmachine.net to see how he fared in the first and second halves of recent games. Duhon as a starter typically plays most of the first quarter (8-9 minutes), then returns in the second quarter for the last 4 to 6 minutes. The table below shows Duhon's +/- for the 2 first half segments he plays, and presents an overall +/- number for the second half, since I was mainly interested in evaluating how he performed as a starter at the beginning of games. (Thus for the table below, a +4/-2 means the lineup he played with registered a +4 for the first quarter minutes he played, and a -2 for the second quarter minutes he played).
| Chris Duhon: Opponent | 1st Half +/- | 1st Half Ast/TO | 2nd Half +/- | Minutes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | +4/-2 | 3 AST/0 TO | -2 | 32 |
| TOR | -15/-5 | 2 AST/1 TO | +18 | 37 |
| DET | +1/-11 | 0 AST/2 TO | -3 | 19 |
| DET | +2/+9 | 5 AST/3 TO | -8 | 20 |
| LAL | +1/+2 | 5 AST/0 TO | -4 | 31 |
| DAL | -2/-10 | 0 AST/0 TO | -21 | 35 |
| MIN | +26/-4 | 7 AST/0 TO | +2 | 31 |
| TOR | +6/-8 | 5 AST/1 TO | -10 | 35 |
| WAS | -8/+11 | 4 AST/1 TO | -5 | 37 |
| MIN | +7/0 | 2 AST/3 TO | -9 | 35 |
| WAS | -1/-3 | 2 AST/2 TO | DNP | 13 |
Taking into account the issues and noise surrounding using raw +/- numbers, there are some interesting things I took away from this snapshot of Duhon's last 11 games as a starter:
* With the exception of an outlier game like Dallas, where everyone played as poorly as they possibly could, Duhon has generally had a segment of positive play in the first half as a starter. Given this is +/- we're talking about, of course it isn't all him: having David Lee as one of your teammates, who tends to start strongly does help. But in 7 of the 11 games, his unit has been positive, and in 8 of those games, he's registered at least 2 assists with 1 or no turnovers. This is the aspect of his play, along with the contributions of defense, that led the coach to continue to support him. In his worst half (the first Toronto game), he rebounded in the second half with a +18.
* The second half of games...now there's the issue. With the exception of the Toronto and Minnesota games, it's been more unrelentingly ugly. The Knick coaching staff is a big proponent of plus/minus to evaluate situational lineups and matchups, and they had to notice this, which is why even before last Wednesday's game (where Chris was a DNP for the 2nd half), D'Antoni sat him for significant stretches of the second half in both Detroit games when his turnover count was high.
* One thing not evident in the numbers but increasingly apparent in the recent slump is Duhon's diminishing energy on defense as well as offense. He's one of the better help defenders on the team, and good at pursuit around screens, but against the Wizards and Wolves his pursuit of his man around screens has looked a step slow, and his attention span on switches (though not nearly as volatile as Nate's) seems to waver more.
* I look forward to an energized Nate and Larry taking advantage of their newly awarded opportunities to energize the offense. I still wonder (long term) how Nate will be used against longer teams when he can't be "hidden" as easily, even in a zone where he may have to close out on much taller shooters. Hughes should be better in this respect, but his strengths are best employed in straight man to man, where he can focus on the tendencies of his opponent and play passing lanes (in zones he sometimes loses his man, as he did during the Wizards game when Nick Young got free for a 3 in the first half).
* I predict Duhon will be the most professional of D'Antoni's various doghouse inhabitants, but I do hope, most of all, that the exile lights a spark in him. He is still the best playmaker on the team, and he is not as bad a shooter as he's been for most of the season. As much as I want to believe a Nate/Larry/Toney triumvirate will give the team a new identity and a fresh start, it's more realistic to expect that this will be a shuffling of the usual deck chairs, with some wild highs and lows.
Knicks vs Bucks, 7:30pm, MSG
Tonight's game against the Bucks gives the Knicks an opportunity to avenge one of their worst early season losses -- the loss to the Bucks as part of the Knicks' 1-9 start painted a bleak picture for the season at the time, and there may not have been a first half all season where the Knicks were so throughly defeated by the second quarter (when they fell behind by over 30 points). The Bucks had a rough stretch after their strong season start, including a brutal West Coast road trip, but they've recovered well and prior to their last clobbering by Orlando, had won 5 of 7 games.
I'm not sure I see the Bucks as a playoff team relative to the other teams fighting for playoff seeds, but they are a very, very difficult matchup for the Knicks. Bogut is the kind of big man who gives David Lee fits, and unlike the Bynums and Haywoods of the world, he is much better with the ball and in handling double teams, meaning the Knicks' zones and help can only do so much. Milwaukee is not a great offensive team, but they have a very good turnover differential and rebound well (two big Knick weaknesses). Jennings has cooled off substantially after his hot start but still poses plenty of problems with his quickness and playmaking, and Ridnour is having a career year -- he'll bust any zones the Knicks try to run pretty quickly.
The Bucks do not get to the free throw line though, and are one of the most foul-prone teams (their league-bottom free throw differential surprised me at how severe it was). If the Knicks can get positive offensive contributions from Harrington and Nate (the players most likely to draw fouls) and keep the Bucks from getting off to the same start they did in the previous game, tonight's game should be a good one.

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