Knicks NBA Preview 2010-11 Season



Once again, Jeff Clark at CelticsBlog has rounded up NBA bloggers to do previews for their respective teams in the early, hope-filled, (largely) basketball-less months of September and October. I'm honored once again to be part of the blogging contingent this year. I'll be posting links in the coming days to everyone's outstanding work, but you can also take a look at the schedule if you have particular teams you want to keep an eye out for.


Team Name: New York Knicks

Last Year's Record: 29-53

Key Losses: David Lee, Al Harrington

Key Additions: Amar'e Stoudemire, Anthony Randolph, Raymond Felton, Kelenna Azuibuike, Ronny Turiaf, Timofey Mozgov


What Significant Moves Were Made During the Off-Season?

After two seasons of scorched earth roster decimation, Donnie Walsh and Mike D'Antoni actually got down to the business of building a team. Sure, a certain prized free agent decided to go elsewhere as part of a SuperFriends package in South Beach, and no small amount of fretting took place among Knick fans as coveted plan B free agent Joe Johnson was signed to an absurd contract by the Atlanta Hawks.

But Walsh promised backup plans covering every letter of the alphabet, and he delivered by: 1) signing Amar'e Stoudemire to a max contract, 2) pulling off a small coup by trading David Lee to the Golden State Warriors for Kelenna Azubuike, Ronny Turiaf, and is-he-a-head-case-or-a-crazy-transformational-multi-positional-player Anthony Randolph 3) acquiring PG Ray Felton in a very thin market for guards for a reasonable two year, $15.8m deal, 4) signing young Russian center Timofey Mozgov to a 3 year $9.7m deal, again reasonable given the scarcity of bigs, and 5) drafting and signing second round picks Andy Rautins and Landry Fields, with the latter making enough waves in the Summer League to merit especially high praise from ESPN's David Thorpe.

The Knicks also retained Bill Walker, and signed Roger Mason and Patrick Ewing Jr. to fill out the roster.

What are the team's biggest strengths?

The roster has been turned over so drastically, with such interesting pieces replacing the high-usage, high-maintenance expiring contracts of the last 2 years, that it's easy to respond with a miasma of hopeful one-word proclamations: "youth!" "potential!" "athleticism!" "versatility!". In last year's preview, I referred to the D'Antoni system as the team's biggest strength, which in restrospect reflected a much too hopeful expectation on my part that the system could turn corned beef hash into gold (or at least hash with edible gold strands).

The strength of this year's Knicks is its depth and the increased number of players who better fit D'Antoni's system; in particular, a surplus of versatile wings and inside players who have experience playing the pick and roll on offense, who have played for running teams, and who can better protect the rim and guard more positions on defense. For the last two years, David Lee was the hub of the system, setting screens,  diving to the basket, popping out for a jumper, or managing the offense from the top of the key and finding shooters. Lee had too many ball-dominant teammates, however, and those teammates were terrible defenders, with every defensive switch producing a freeway to the rim or a wide open jumper for the opposing team.

This season Amar'e, Randolph, Turiaf and Mozgov -- in conjunction with Felton, Chandler, Douglas and Gallinari --  all give the Knicks more options on both ends of the floor that they didn't have in the past. The improvements may be modest, but this will be a much more interesting team in terms of both its offensive and defensive execution, especially if Randolph and Gallinari are able to realize their potential as playmakers and defenders. Last year Jared Jeffries fulfilled a valuable role as D'Antoni's swiss army knife player, except for his unfortunately atrocious hands and numerous liabilities on the offensive end -- Randolph and Gallinari promise much more.

And while there's some justified skepticism about Amar'e as a modest (and more fragile) upgrade over David Lee, at his best he's one of the most talented and efficient power forwards on offense in the league, and he'll be driven to prove he didn't simply benefit from having one of the league's greatest point guards dishing him the ball at his former team.

What are the team's biggest weaknesses?


Health and team cohesion are notable and obvious concerns -- Stoudemire's past injury history is well documented, but it's also notable that the 3 arrivals from the David Lee trade played a grand total of 84 games combined in 2009-10. (There are some questions about whether Azubuike will be ready at the start of the season, and how serious the injury really is). Additionally, for all the excitement about the new roster, there's still a curious lack of guard depth and outside shooting, which may explain why Rautins was signed despite underwhelming college numbers and Summer League play.

D'Antoni's system remains highly point guard driven, which puts a lot of pressure on Felton to make the offense run. He will probably log huge minutes as the primary point guard the same way Duhon had to in his first year. Felton has been an average point guard in his career -- he's likely to get the "D'Antoni bounce" in the transition from Larry Brown's system, but he's an expedient option rather than an inspiring one. There's some hope that returning to a faster system like the one Felton played at in college will benefit him - the Bobcats were in the bottom five in percentage of shots taken and points produced within the first 15 seconds of the shot clock last year, categories where the Knicks were in the top three, so it should be quite an adjustment.

I'd prefer to see more creativity in the way playmaking responsibilities are crafted and managed: splitting Felton's minutes with Douglas and finding alternate playmaking options (Gallo, Randolph, even Fields) in short stretches will provide relief to the guards, diversify the offense, and make the team more difficult to defend than simply giving the keys to Felton for 40 minutes a game. To be fair, this will require some growth on the part of both Gallo and Randolph, as their playmaking potential has most been mostly theoretical to date.

Rebounding and defense against more physical teams (not just the elite like Lakers/Celtics/Heat/Magic, but also teams like the Bucks) will also be a concern even with the acquisition of all the frontline players, given D'Antoni has never favored bruising front lines. There should be more energy and fight with players like Randolph, Turiaf and Mosgov at least -- David Lee was always tougher than many gave him credit for, but he and Harrington were never imposing and too often went down meekly against even mediocre front lines.

I almost listed as a "strength" the lifting of the cloud that was 2010 Free Agency, which had detrimental effects on the chemistry and commitment of last year's Knicks. But because it's New York, there will always be rumors, especially with the trendy "add two to three restless free agent superstars" approach to building championship contenders these days. This means that every player on the roster except Amar'e will have to get used to the distractions of fanciful trade rumors.

What are the goals for this team?

The goals for this roster remain identical to those of the teams from the last two years -- making the playoffs as a lower seed and building some credibility as a dangerous team for a playoff opponent. This year the goals are actually realistic, and the team (in the best of scenarios) may even make a run at .500 -- previous teams had to hope for enough wreckage at the lower rungs of the East to make 35 to 37 wins a possible cutoff for playoff contention.

Will the D'Antoni blueprint be modified for a team with so many question marks?


The coach came in for a lot of cheap shots and undeserved criticism in the latter part of the season and playoffs as the Knicks floundered to 29 wins and Alvin Gentry's Suns were tweaking the formula with significant success (particularly the more liberal use of the bench, though the so-called improved defense was largely a myth). I always saw the Suns' success in the playoffs as a validation of D'Antoni's approach to putting pressure on opponents with offense rather than an indictment, and the new roster gives the coach much more to work with. D'Antoni showed some surprising tactical flexibility last season after a terrible 1-9 start: slowing down the pace marginally, making liberal use of zones, running more deliberate sets for players like Gallinari and Chandler. He's never been as one-dimensional in his dedication to fast break offense nor as indifferent to defense as his detractors would like to claim.

With that said, most basketball observers are well aware of the coach's tendency to favor short rotations of 7 to 8 players, which may not be the optimal approach for a team with this range of talent and depth. If the Knicks can remain healthy and players like Fields develop quickly, a greater distribution of minutes among 9 or even 10 players would be welcome. Additionally, while this roster will do its share of running and gunning, it could be even more interesting on defense, with four to five players 6-8 and taller capable of guarding multiple positions, and Douglas has the potential (and commitment) to be the best defensive guard the Knicks have had in years.

Much was made of how much Coach Mike Krzyzewski learned about creative offense from D'Antoni in their time together as coaches for the US team at the Olympics. Even though D'Antoni had to back out of the recent World Championships, let's hope he took some notes from Coach K in the way the US roster was molded into a highly effective group of hyper-athletic defenders capable of running off of turnovers. That wouldn't be a bad way for this team to go.

Predicted Record: 40-42

Other Knick previews: Posting and Toasting | Knickerblogger |
 
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