Warriors 122 Knicks 117: So Much For Predictions
A couple of days ago I expected a split of two deceptively difficult games for the Knicks. Little did I know that the Bucks would blow things up by suddenly becoming last season's playoff team, and by knocking Ronny Turiaf out (sprained knee) along with their 107-80 blowout. Couple this with Monta Ellis making his usual miraculous recovery from injury and his significant contributions to the Warriors' exciting if dispiriting victory over the Knicks last night, and just like that the Knicks have a three game losing streak.
If you weren't living or dying with one team or the other at the Garden last night, it was an extremely entertaining game, run at a track meet 105 pace. The Warriors traded away Kelenna Azubuike to the Knicks and lost CJ Watson to the Bulls in free agency last summer, yet they still trot out guards (Ellis, Curry, Williams) capable of leaving any team in the dust, guards that (to no surprise) overmatched Felton and Douglas. Thanks to the guards and David Lee, the Warriors got 20 fast break points, 30 points off 21 Knick turnovers, and shot a ridiculous 29 of 37 at the rim (78% - the league average is 61%). Nearly half the shots converted at the rim were by the guards, who blew past Knick defenders with the dribble and off the ball time and time again.
(Couple this with the Bucks' equally gaudy 78% shooting at the rim the previous night on 18 for 23 shooting, and yeah, I think Turiaf is missed)
The Knicks responded by attempting to attack with Amare, with mixed results in the first half (6 turnovers) and by jacking up three pointers (after making 3 of their first 7, they made 4 of their final 24, that's TWENTY FOUR three pointers in 3 quarters). Once again, attempting to pass into Amare or other Knick cutters was so futile that eventually D'Antoni started running isolations for Amare, and Felton and Douglas largely chose to create their own offense (only one of their 10 combined FGs was assisted).
After falling behind by 19 in the third quarter, the Knicks started having more success taking it at a Warrior interior defense just as soft as their own, tightening up their own defense, and getting to the foul line. At one point they made 28 consecutive free throws (which was both ridiculous and fabulous), and took the lead back twice with under 3 minutes to go. For a third time this season at home though, all the key possessions down the stretch went the opponent's way, with the biggest daggers being the failure to stay home on Dorrell Wright (who gave the Warriors the lead for good at 114-113 on a kick out assist from Ellis) and a subsequent maddening possession where the Knicks got 2 offensive rebounds only to waste them on bad jumpers and a weak missed drive by Gallinari that resulted in a Warrior fast break that effectively clinched the game.
In some ways, it was amazing the Knicks were able to give themselves a chance to win the game given their dreadful ball handling and the lopsided and inefficient offense -- the 31 three pointers represented a season high 40 percent of their total FG attempts (season average had been 28%), and when Gallinari and Douglas are combining to miss all 12 of their 3 pointers, it's not good. On the plus side, D'Antoni chose to start Chandler at power forward to give Amare more space to work with in the lane, and though it didn't do much for the defense and the turnovers hurt in the first half, it was nice to see Amare eventually adjust and attack the rim with his trademark ferocity in the second half.
With Chandler starting, the rotation is starting to look more like a typically compressed D'Antoni rotation, if this game is anything to go by: six players with 33 to 41 minutes, Walker and Randolph with 10 and 8 minutes respectively, and Mozgov with only 2 minutes (to be fair, a small team like the Warriors presented the worst matchups for him).
Looking ahead, the worst case scenarios for November are starting to look more plausible as long as Turiaf remains injured or limited in effectiveness (currently the injury is day to day) -- the Knicks weren't exactly a defensive powerhouse with him, but his shot blocking, lane presence and underrated playmaking ability were crucial to the Knicks' spirited early start. The next two opponents are Minnesota and Houston, who've also struggled early, but no Knick opponent feels like a certain win at this point when the Knicks are allowing 40 point quarters and 60 point halves to start and taking care of the ball so poorly.
No more predictions for now, but even if Turiaf does manage to return this weekend, D'Antoni needs to find ways to get his shooters going and get the ball to Amare while working around the (significant) limitations of Felton and Douglas. Though it's early (and any comparison to a Steve Nash-led team is brutally unfair), a Synergy Sports comparison of the ways Amare scored last year with the Suns to this year with the Knicks are telling: with the Suns last season, Amare scored 19 percent of the time on Post-Ups, 18% of the time as the Pick and Roll man, 15% of the time in Isolations, and 14% of the time through Cuts to the basket. With the Knicks so far this season, a whopping 35% of his scoring has been through Isolations, 12 % through spot-up jumpers, and only 10 percent of the time has his scoring come as the Pick and Roll man.
63 percent of Amare's shots at the rim were assisted last season with Phoenix; this year, only 44 percent of his shots at the rim with the Knicks are assisted. As I've implied before, perhaps having the wings do more than just handoff to Amare will help; Felton and Douglas may eventually get the mechanics and rhythm of the pick and roll down, but right now watching the team try to find Amare in the lane is like watching someone try to hammer a nail with a potato.
If you weren't living or dying with one team or the other at the Garden last night, it was an extremely entertaining game, run at a track meet 105 pace. The Warriors traded away Kelenna Azubuike to the Knicks and lost CJ Watson to the Bulls in free agency last summer, yet they still trot out guards (Ellis, Curry, Williams) capable of leaving any team in the dust, guards that (to no surprise) overmatched Felton and Douglas. Thanks to the guards and David Lee, the Warriors got 20 fast break points, 30 points off 21 Knick turnovers, and shot a ridiculous 29 of 37 at the rim (78% - the league average is 61%). Nearly half the shots converted at the rim were by the guards, who blew past Knick defenders with the dribble and off the ball time and time again.
(Couple this with the Bucks' equally gaudy 78% shooting at the rim the previous night on 18 for 23 shooting, and yeah, I think Turiaf is missed)
The Knicks responded by attempting to attack with Amare, with mixed results in the first half (6 turnovers) and by jacking up three pointers (after making 3 of their first 7, they made 4 of their final 24, that's TWENTY FOUR three pointers in 3 quarters). Once again, attempting to pass into Amare or other Knick cutters was so futile that eventually D'Antoni started running isolations for Amare, and Felton and Douglas largely chose to create their own offense (only one of their 10 combined FGs was assisted).
After falling behind by 19 in the third quarter, the Knicks started having more success taking it at a Warrior interior defense just as soft as their own, tightening up their own defense, and getting to the foul line. At one point they made 28 consecutive free throws (which was both ridiculous and fabulous), and took the lead back twice with under 3 minutes to go. For a third time this season at home though, all the key possessions down the stretch went the opponent's way, with the biggest daggers being the failure to stay home on Dorrell Wright (who gave the Warriors the lead for good at 114-113 on a kick out assist from Ellis) and a subsequent maddening possession where the Knicks got 2 offensive rebounds only to waste them on bad jumpers and a weak missed drive by Gallinari that resulted in a Warrior fast break that effectively clinched the game.
In some ways, it was amazing the Knicks were able to give themselves a chance to win the game given their dreadful ball handling and the lopsided and inefficient offense -- the 31 three pointers represented a season high 40 percent of their total FG attempts (season average had been 28%), and when Gallinari and Douglas are combining to miss all 12 of their 3 pointers, it's not good. On the plus side, D'Antoni chose to start Chandler at power forward to give Amare more space to work with in the lane, and though it didn't do much for the defense and the turnovers hurt in the first half, it was nice to see Amare eventually adjust and attack the rim with his trademark ferocity in the second half.
With Chandler starting, the rotation is starting to look more like a typically compressed D'Antoni rotation, if this game is anything to go by: six players with 33 to 41 minutes, Walker and Randolph with 10 and 8 minutes respectively, and Mozgov with only 2 minutes (to be fair, a small team like the Warriors presented the worst matchups for him).
Looking ahead, the worst case scenarios for November are starting to look more plausible as long as Turiaf remains injured or limited in effectiveness (currently the injury is day to day) -- the Knicks weren't exactly a defensive powerhouse with him, but his shot blocking, lane presence and underrated playmaking ability were crucial to the Knicks' spirited early start. The next two opponents are Minnesota and Houston, who've also struggled early, but no Knick opponent feels like a certain win at this point when the Knicks are allowing 40 point quarters and 60 point halves to start and taking care of the ball so poorly.
No more predictions for now, but even if Turiaf does manage to return this weekend, D'Antoni needs to find ways to get his shooters going and get the ball to Amare while working around the (significant) limitations of Felton and Douglas. Though it's early (and any comparison to a Steve Nash-led team is brutally unfair), a Synergy Sports comparison of the ways Amare scored last year with the Suns to this year with the Knicks are telling: with the Suns last season, Amare scored 19 percent of the time on Post-Ups, 18% of the time as the Pick and Roll man, 15% of the time in Isolations, and 14% of the time through Cuts to the basket. With the Knicks so far this season, a whopping 35% of his scoring has been through Isolations, 12 % through spot-up jumpers, and only 10 percent of the time has his scoring come as the Pick and Roll man.
63 percent of Amare's shots at the rim were assisted last season with Phoenix; this year, only 44 percent of his shots at the rim with the Knicks are assisted. As I've implied before, perhaps having the wings do more than just handoff to Amare will help; Felton and Douglas may eventually get the mechanics and rhythm of the pick and roll down, but right now watching the team try to find Amare in the lane is like watching someone try to hammer a nail with a potato.

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