Jared Jeffries: How Much Utility Can A No-Stats Defender Provide?


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Jared Jeffries is back with the Knicks, and already making a difference with his defense, though his individual statistics don't show much of anything so far. Jeffries is more or less reprising the role(s) he had during his first 18 months with Mike D'Antoni prior to the infamous cap-space clearing trade with the Rockets last season. He's been a defensive quarterback guarding multiple positions, elite help defender and communicator, director of the matchup zone whenever it's run, calling out plays and reminding teammates of assignments, and he's made hustle plays on both ends of the floor (tips, deflections, offensive rebounds, taking charges, etc).

Jeffries is averaging 25 minutes for New York in four games, a remarkable turnaround from the first four months of the season with the Rockets, where he played just 18 games, averaged under 8 minutes per game, and went on the inactive list when Aaron Brooks returned from injury. By all accounts, Jeffries was widely liked by his teammates and coaches in Houston, but the Rockets already had a defensive specialist in Chuck Hayes, and their priority this season was giving time to younger players like Jordan Hill and Patrick Patterson. Mike D'Antoni likes what he's seen enough so far to make Jeffries a starter for the rest of the season. He'll be starting nominally at center, though he's capable of guarding every position, and his assignments will vary depending on matchups.

Jeffries has come back to a very different Knick team  -- instead of papering over the defense of cap space all-stars like Harrington, Lee, Duhon, and Robinson, he's now rubbing shoulders with two high usage, high wattage superstars In Amare and Carmelo, who have their own defensive foibles. As a low usage role player who doesn't need the ball on offense, he fits well, though his early invisibility and shades of incompetence on offense are already the subject of thoughtful reflection (a must-read essay by Danny Chau) and derision.

Making Sense of Jeffries' Extreme Un-Involvement In the Offense

I made note of a quirk in a recent game recap amplifying the relative roles of Jeffries and the two Knick stars: Jeffries had a microscopic usage rate of 3 percent of offensive possessions in his first game as a starter against Cleveland, while Amare and Carmelo had usage rates of 43 and 27 percent respectively (according to basketball-reference.com). The more typical range of usage for role players playing 20 or more minutes is 10 to 15 percent of possessions -- Landry Fields and Ronny Turiaf (when healthy) fit in this category, being the fourth or fifth option for shots within the offense.  Amazingly, in Jeffries' next two games as a starter, he managed to replicate this feat of using only 3 to 4 percent of possessions while the stars continued to soak up 70 plus percent.

It's unlikely Jeffries will remain this invisible with significant minutes -- his usage rate in recent years has been in the 10 to 14 percent range, and defenses need to be kept honest. Then again, he hasn't exactly improved his offensive game, and even the presence of superstars is unlikely to give him the ability to score with any facility. Furthermore, D'Antoni typically has limited patience with role players that gum up the offense with tentativeness or ineptitude -- he's gone back and forth with players like Turiaf and Mozgov all season (though their defensive lapses and propensity to foul were as much the reason for their up and down minutes).

D'Antoni values Jeffries' intangible contributions so much though, that he's willing to live with the risk/reward tradeoffs, and (granted in a small sample size) we're seeing them bear fruit: in the last 3 games, he has plus/minus lines of +7, +11 and +27. He's been a notable part of a Knick defense that has shown improvement since the trade deadine (per Basketball Prospectus). Even in the disastrous home loss to Cleveland, the difference between mildly porous defense and horrific cape-waving was apparent when Jeffries was out of the game with foul trouble -- he covered for Fields' issues in defending quick wings, he covered for Amare's tendency to drift on switches, and his height and wingspan enabled deflections and helped with closing out on shooters.

The question remains: can a player this limited on offense warrant so many minutes on a good team, a playoff team? I took a look at all the players in the NBA who averaged 20 or more minutes of playing time, played at least 50 games in a season, and had a usage rate of 10 percent or lower of a team's possessions in the last 10 seasons. The results were highly interesting: 

AgeTeamSeasonUsage
     
Joel Anthony28MIA2010-114.9
Nick Collison30OKC2010-119.7
Thabo Sefolosha26OKC2010-119
Kurt Thomas38CHI2010-119.9
Ben Wallace36DET2010-118
     
Ben Wallace35DET2009-1010
     
Shane Battier30HOU2008-099.9
Trenton Hassell29NJN2008-099.9
Ben Wallace34CLE2008-097.8
     
Bruce Bowen36SAS2007-089.4
Ben Wallace34CHI/CLE2007-0810
     
Jason Collins28NJN2006-077.1
Jeff Foster30IND2006-079.9
     
Jason Collins27NJN2005-069
Adonal Foyle30GSW2005-0610
Adrian Griffin31DAL2005-0610
Theo Ratliff32BOS2005-069.9
     
Theo Ratliff31POR2004-059.6
     
Trenton Hassell24MIN2003-049.5
     
Reggie Evans22SEA2002-038.9
     
Michael Curry33DET2001-029.3
Ervin Johnson34MIL2001-027.7
     
Mario Elie37PHO2000-0110
Ervin Johnson33MIL2000-016.5
Michael Smith28WAS2000-019.6

Source: Basketball-Reference.com

Several observations to make based on types of players on this list:

*  Defensive Specialists: This list is like a who's who of gritty, intangibles-rich players, with Ben Wallace as its patron saint. They are low usage players for a reason: the majority of them are extremely limited on offense. But many of them earn playing time through their impact on the defensive end.

*  Veterans: A significant number of players on this list are or were in their late 20s/30s. Presumably, they earn playing time because they're willing to accept a limited role, and their experience is valued by their teams -- Wallace, Collison, Thomas, Ratliff.  Or they have a specific skill that remains potent even as they age -- in Ratliff's case, his shot blocking. Age also explains the decline in some of these players' skills that tends to narrow their involvement on offense relative to when they were younger.

* Superstar/High-Usage Teammates: Collison and Sefolosha are the Thunder teammates of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, two of the top ten in the NBA in usage.  Hassell and Ervin Johnson were the no-shoot teammates of high usage teammates Kevin Garnett and Sam Cassell on an excellent Timberwolves team that nevertheless seemed to be playing 3 on 5 some nights. Ben Wallace played with Lebron James...and Joel Anthony plays with Lebron *and* Wade *and* Bosh (hence his leading this list in subterranean usage). The point is that the offensive flaws of these role players can be glossed over by the firepower of their teammates, though there's constant consternation among fans and writers covering the teams about how much offensive ineptitude can be tolerated.

* Unique Skills/Unique Flaws: Many NBA players who are great defenders are usually capable of contributing in other parts of the box score as well, even in limited doses, which gets them more possessions on offense. But because of age, tweener-ism (Griffin, Foyle), or just extremely bad hands (Joel Anthony, Ervin Johnson), the no-possession role players on this list typically have an area of extreme strength (wing defense, taking charges, blocking shots) along with near-fatal weaknesses relative to others at their position (turnovers, shot selection, low rebounding rates, inability to draw fouls).

* Playoff Contributors: Contrary to what some might have expected, high minutes for these kinds of players isn't a sign of a bankrupt roster (with one or two exceptions) -- a fair number of these players have contributed to good teams that have made the playoffs. As with Jeffries, their coaches believed they could employ their strengths for the good of the team while minimizing the weaknesses through judicious use of lineups and matchups. In most cases, their coaches cite that dreaded word "intangibles" to justify their minutes and impact. - not unreasonably, it should be added.

A final note about this list: the types of players on it changes only subtly if you bump the usage percentage a few points higher -- players like Andris Biedrins, Raja Bell, Steve Blake, Derek Fisher, Chris Andersen, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, etc. start to appear. Most are still defensive specialists playing with ball dominant teammates, though you start to see more perimeter players, a tiny bit more offensive ability, more players who are on losing teams, and even more flashpoints for fan angst regarding playing time (Bell, Fisher, Biedrins).

How Jeffries Compares To A Select Group of Glue Guys

Narrowing the focus to players this season and last season on the list, the most relevant comparisons are probably Joel Anthony, Nick Collison, and Ben Wallace. All play heavily on the inside but can roam around the perimeter in a pinch as part of good team defenses. Jeffries is simultaneously more versatile and more limited than they are -- though he's classified as an inside player, he gets by defending power forwards and centers through guile, positioning and active hands, and he broadens his impact by being able to guard opposing guards as well (though any reasonably quick and strong perimeter player will give him fits).

A closer look at what Anthony, Collison, and Wallace have accomplished in their most recent playoff seasons relative to their regular season numbers shows that they either maintained their minutes and production or had a slight but not dramatic dip. Wallace in 2007-08 and Collison last season averaged over 20 minutes in the playoffs, and their statistical impact in the box score remained minute apart from rebounds.  Their real contributions came in the area of situational defense.

Those skeptical of Jeffries' ability to be a Wallace or Collison will steer in the direction of Joel Anthony (the most limited player in this group), who played about 16 minutes per game in the regular season and playoffs for the Wade-led Heat the last two seasons, and kept his sub-Mendoza line levels of usage at 5 to 6 percent throughout. (This season with the Heat is a much harder read, since Spoelstra's usage of Anthony has varied with Dampier and Ilgauskas at his disposal). Anthony also has hands that compare to Jeffries in doubling as cinder blocks.

Tipping the scales on the positive side for Jeffries: like Wallace and Collison, he comes out as a dramatic positive relative to his invisible box score when it comes to plus/minus -- his team is better with him on the floor than without. On the Knicks, he was second only to Gallinari last season, and second to Chuck Hayes and Kyle Lowry while with the Rockets. Joel Anthony, in contrast, has fared terribly in most plus-minus metrics.

Wallace in his last season with Cleveland was second only to Lebron (albeit by a dramatic margin), and in 2009-10 the Pistons were 8 points better per 100 possessions with him on the floor (he has declined dramatically since). Collison is the model here, with the Thunder being 6 to 7 points better with him on the floor the last two seasons (the best on the team). Like Jeffries, he's usually in the right place on defense and is extremely good at taking charges.

Final Observations

What's been left unsaid, and has probably been screamed by some anxious Knick fans virtually as they were trying to make their way through this piece: "WE ALREADY HAVE A GLUE GUY -- HIS NAME IS RONNY TURIAF, AND HE'S BETTER". I'd agree with that assessment on the surface, and Turiaf has had some very nice lines this season without having to use possessions much at all. (For example, a home win vs Indiana where he played 28 minutes, had 10 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal, and 6 blocks while only scoring 2 points and using 8 percent of possessions). Turiaf's hands and offensive skill set are not exactly the stuff of legend, but he doesn't inspire the same level of fear among fans that Jeffries does, and yes, he can make layups (most of the time).

Turiaf has had a hard time staying healthy though, and doesn't quite have the versatility or smarts as a help defender that Jeffries does. By almost any boxscore metric Turiaf comes out ahead, and he's a better choice as a physical defender, but he gets himself in trouble more with fouls, and doesn't cover for the weaknesses of his teammates as well as Jeffries has so far. Jeffries' ability to cover point guards and trap on the wings is also a skill that D'Antoni has always coveted -- it explains why Shawne Williams has gotten playing time over Ronny in the past in some matchups.

In the end, D'Antoni has a balancing act, and he'll probably rotate minutes among his role players in the best way he sees fit, meaning Turiaf and Williams (both Shawne and Shelden) will continue to get minutes in a slightly larger rotation. I would personally prefer that Jeffries doesn't get much more than 25 minutes per game, but it's impossible not to appreciate what he's done already. (Spend a game watching just him -- really). 

One sobering note: usage of possessions is ultimately a symptom, an indicator of what the player does or doesn't contribute on offense - it isn't meant to be a predictor of results.  But the only team with a very limited usage player getting minutes (Bowen) who came close to the championship were the Spurs in 2006-07 (who lost in the Western Conference finals to the Lakers in 5 games). Ben Wallace won a championship with the Pistons, but he was using close to 15 percent of possessions that year -- he wasn't quite the boxscore cipher he became in the twilight of his career. 

Championship teams like the Spurs, Celtics and Lakers are able to put a versatile lineup of players on the floor who largely don't have to be hidden or tucked away - even the Artests, Perkinses, and Bowens of the world can make a key three pointer or score inside. Thus, Jeffries will be a valuable contributor, but the evolution of the Knicks toward championship contender in the future will likely require someone more complete to help with the defense without hurting the offense.

 
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