NBA Draft Thoughts: 2011 Edition
The Knicks went into last night's NBA draft with a middling first round pick in a draft badly weakened by fears of the looming lockout, with the hope that the pick could fetch a gem, given the extreme difficulty of reading which players warranted lottery selections below the consensus top two. They ended up with Georgia Tech's Iman Shumpert in the first round and Kentucky's Josh Harrelson in the second round (based on a pick acquired from New Orleans at 45) -- an interesting if less than exhilarating haul that meets some needs and begins the necessary off-season process of adding functional bodies to a thin roster.
I didn't care much for the Shumpert pick at first when it was first announced last night, and the Knick fans in attendance in Newark looked deflated as well, given the availability of Florida State's Chris Singleton, whose stock as the draft's best perimeter defender had been hyped for weeks. I've had the opportunity to watch both Georgia Tech and Florida State play a number of ACC and NCAA games the last few years, and Singleton has always looked more like a game changing defender and powerful transition player, whereas Shumpert looked solid but always seemed a bit disappointing, being offensively challenged and questionable as a decision maker in Paul Hewitt's system.
Going past my superficial eye test though, the similarities between Shumpert and Singleton are pretty striking. Both played in the ACC against quality opposition and developed reputations as athletic, high quality defenders while disappointing offensively. Both played for bruising defensive teams, but in systems that could charitably be described as uncreative offensively, providing a glimmer of hope that they could flourish with better coaching and in a more open offense. Both disappointed a bit their first two years, then blossomed in their junior seasons. One possible notable difference between the two is that Singleton seems to have embraced his role as a defense-first player at the next level, whereas it's less clear with Shumpert (based on the accounts I've read) what he believes he can do as a pro.
I didn't care much for the Shumpert pick at first when it was first announced last night, and the Knick fans in attendance in Newark looked deflated as well, given the availability of Florida State's Chris Singleton, whose stock as the draft's best perimeter defender had been hyped for weeks. I've had the opportunity to watch both Georgia Tech and Florida State play a number of ACC and NCAA games the last few years, and Singleton has always looked more like a game changing defender and powerful transition player, whereas Shumpert looked solid but always seemed a bit disappointing, being offensively challenged and questionable as a decision maker in Paul Hewitt's system.
Going past my superficial eye test though, the similarities between Shumpert and Singleton are pretty striking. Both played in the ACC against quality opposition and developed reputations as athletic, high quality defenders while disappointing offensively. Both played for bruising defensive teams, but in systems that could charitably be described as uncreative offensively, providing a glimmer of hope that they could flourish with better coaching and in a more open offense. Both disappointed a bit their first two years, then blossomed in their junior seasons. One possible notable difference between the two is that Singleton seems to have embraced his role as a defense-first player at the next level, whereas it's less clear with Shumpert (based on the accounts I've read) what he believes he can do as a pro.
Reading between the lines of the early post-draft quotes coming from Walsh and Grunfeld, it seems that Kawhi Leonard was the freakish athlete the Knicks had the greatest hope would drop down to 17, and when he went off the board, the brain trust preferred Shumpert to Singleton. If this is true, I'll put on my "glass is half-full" hat and say that it's encouraging that the Knicks prioritized a hyper-athletic defender with their top pick. The Knicks have plenty of offense, and there were few to no difference making frontline players that could shore up the Knick interior available at the Knicks' draft position. Focusing on a strong perimeter defender was the right way to go.
As far as choosing Shumpert over Singleton, there are two or three possible justifications. One is that Shumpert is more capable of being a two-way player, and that his offense isn't as bad as it looked in college -- some early scouting reports on ESPN also indicated that he's more effective in a faster paced offense. He doesn't strike me as a natural playmaker, though, and his college assist and turnover numbers don't jump out. I also cringed at the quotes from the workouts claming "his shot isn't broken", based on hot shooting during workouts. (Uncomfortable flashback 1: I have thoughts of Rajon Rondo, broken shot and all, matching Kevin Durant jumpshot for jumpshot in the nationally televised game of HORSE at NBA All-Star Weekend last season, then going back to showing nothing from the perimeter in actual games).
But there's an argument to be made that within Mike D'Antoni's offense, a big guard that's used to handling the ball is more useful than a purely defensive, low usage wing.
A second possible reason (and the one offered in most post-draft recaps) is that the Knicks had a greater need (and more playing time) for a two guard relative to a tweener wing that would have played behind Carmelo Anthony, and they preferred someone who could defend opposing point guards. (Uncomfortable flashback number 2: the last time I can vividly remember the Knicks "filling a need" at the two guard, they traded for Larry Hughes). Joking and uncomfortable flashbacks aside, this assessment of need is reasonable. The Eastern Conference playoff teams that have given the Knicks fits generally have a hyper-quick guard or wing beyond the ability of Billups, Fields or Douglas (especially with a torn labrum) to defend. Shumpert has the body and athleticism to defend the likes of Rose, Wade, Teague, Nelson and Rondo, and he may be versatile enough to cover wings like Joe Johnson and Paul Pierce in a pinch. Singleton can do the same (though he seems more suited to guarding the 2, 3 and 4 than opposing point guards).
A third possible reason is that Shumpert may have been a painfully erratic player at Georgia Tech, but he didn't face too many questions about his motivation or motor during games, something that occasionally came up with Singleton, who would disappear for long streches in some games. This is pretty subjective stuff, and in fairness to Singleton, "disappearing" may have been a function of his teammates and offense as much as his own desire -- Shumpert on the other hand generally controlled the ball for his team. But the fact that Singleton fell to the middle of the first round despite the need of several teams at the higher end of the lottery for defense indicates those teams may have had the same questions.
In the end, I'm not totally convinced that Singleton wasn't the better pick, but I do think Shumpert can be very useful. There was a lot of buzz about Singleton and not much about Shumpert, but in John Hollinger's Draft Rater, Shumpert was rated 20th while Singleton was pegged at 16th. So the Knicks' selection may be debatable, but at first blush it's not an outrageous blunder nor a depressingly predictable or safe pick (such as Vucevic, if he had been available, or Montejunas). Nor is it a pick that's as superficially duplicative or redundant as some of the higher lottery picks -- I noted on twitter last night that a fun draft night game was to identify the draftees' dopplegangers on their new teams i.e. Derrick Willams-Beasley, Valuncianas-Bargnani, Tristan Thompson-JJ Hickson, Bismack Biyombo-Tyrus Thomas, and on and on. Let's just hope that Shumpert's doppleganger isn't the ghost of Larry Hughes or Renaldo Balkman.
Shumper is a pick that fills a definite need that can pay off hugely, but bears significant risk, like 90 percent of the picks in the draft this year. I don't think he'll contribute much of anything offensively and his point guard learning curve is going to be steep, but for defense alone he'll be extremely valuable -- the reports of him shutting down James Johnson and Evan Turner in college, and Jimmer Fredette in workouts are highly encouraging.
(For what it's worth, I don't think Shumpert makes Toney Douglas redundant in any way, but I don't know how bad Douglas' shoulder is, and if the rumors are to be believed, he's being shopped. If the shopping expedition brings back the likes of Ramon Sessions, I'm thrilled. If it returns Jonny Flynn, I'm not),
Final note: the Knick draft guys may not know Josh Harrelson that much more than I do, since their impressions of him seem to have been formed off his impressive tournament run with Kentucky (he was not able to make the Portsmouth Invitational due to illness). I like the Knicks having another big body, though I'm alarmed for a center entering Mike D'Antoni's system that has taken so few jumpers in college. Harrelson impressed me most in his game against North Carolina, where he held his own against Tyler Zeller and John Henson, two players that (probably) would have been in the second half of the first round had they declared this year. He seems like a good guy that will blend well with the team personality-wise if he can make the team.
There's still a gaping hole in the interior that's not likely to be filled with 50 games of Ronny Turiaf, Jerome Jordan, and Harrelson, so I'm curious to see what gets done (if anything) with free agents. For now, the Knicks are in a holding pattern along with 29 other teams as the CBA negotiations continue.
Nice article, but I would have like to also see why or why not Shumpert was a better pick that Faried.
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Jeff, I assume the Knicks passed on Faried for the same reasons a lot of other teams did -- high energy tweener with a very limited skillset relative to what the other guys they were looking at had. But you could make an argument for anyone in the teens over someone else. Guessing the Knicks went for the defensive specialist/role player with the most offensive polish.
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Dude, nice article. But you aren't remembering the shootout that Kevin Durant had correctly.
I believe he had it out with O.J. Mayo and ultimately winning with some ridiculously long shot from behind the seated fans.
Doesn't remove the sting from your overall concerns but at least this is one result you don't need to fret over.
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Hey Fizzle, thanks for checking out the article. The H-0-R-S-E contest you're talking about happened in the first year of the event in 2009. That one was outdoors in Phoenix and pretty fun to watch. The one I'm talking about happened in 2010 in Dallas and was a bore. Here's a good recap:
http://www.celticsblog.com/2010/2/13/1309527/h-o-r-s-e-live-blog
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