BANDWAGON KNICK
Bandwagon Knick
Recap: Cavs 119 Knicks 115
Friday night continues to be the wrong night for the Knicks. The Robert Randolph band just keeps playing that sad song, and the Knicks go down in flames in infuriating fashion yet again. (I documented one such devastating loss with this soundtrack back in November)
Here are the losses the Friday Night Knicks have gifted their fans with this season:
Boston 105 New York 101
Minnesota 112 New York 103
Miami 113 New York 91
Sacramento 93 New York 83
San Antonio 101 New York 92
Atlanta 111 New York 102
Philadelphia 100 New York 98
Los Angeles 113 New York 96
Cleveland 115 New York 109
Cleveland 119 New York 115
Among all these losses, the Boston and San Antonio ones might count as "moral victories". Otherwise, it's a pretty unsightly gallery of failure. For what it's worth, I'd say the fourth quarter of the Wolves, Sixers and last night's Cavs game were equally difficult to watch, and arguably the worst fourth quarter finishes of the season.
Though last night would count as a "collapse" given the Knicks had a 12 point lead with 7 minutes left in the game, this was the weirdest of games in that felt like it deserved to be a loss after the Knicks lost an early big lead in the first quarter -- even though the Cavaliers led for a grand total of 50 seconds for the first 47 minutes before taking the lead for good with 45 seconds left. It felt very much like the dire Sacramento loss where the team had no legs after a road trip.
You could see it in the coach's body language -- a cartoonist rendering would have had flames shooting out of his ears -- in the second half especially, as it became clear that the Knicks could not stop the Cavs at all. Two things stood out to highlight this curious Knick malaise despite what Carmelo described as a "must win situation" in his halftime interview. First, in the MSG interview to start the second half with Dan D'Antoni, he lamented the defensive performance of the Knicks and talked about how they showed the players film about how to provide weak side help on the pick and roll -- *at halftime*. Second, MSG showed one of those "Mic'd Up" segments with the coach speaking to his players toward the end of the second quarter.
Normally, these segments are the usual inspirational chatter, or a broad exhortation to a specific player. This segment, though, was about as angry as I ever remember D'Antoni sounding.
"COME ON GUYS! WE HAVE TO UNDERSTAND THE PLAYS, AND WE'RE GOING TO HAVE TO UNDERSTAND THE DEFENSIVE ASSIGNMENTS! NOW COME ON! LET'S GO! DON'T KEEP MAKING MISTAKES LIKE THAT! COME ON! GET YOUR HEADS IN THE GAME!"
(Also, lots of jabbing fingers, and D'Antoni hair that seemed to be getting grayer and more tousled by the second)
But it just wasn't getting through to the players. It's unfair to say the players weren't giving effort, because the offense (especially from Stoudemire and Anthony) was outstanding for three and a half quarters.. But on defense, they looked massively lost, and yet again made the athletic Cavs on the pick and roll look like world beaters. JJ Hickson and Samardo Samuels looked like McFilthy and McNasty in pushing around the Knick frontline, Baron Davis showed more good than bad, and the Cavs shot an unspeakable 12-21 on three pointers.
Game notes:
* Calling out players pains me, it really does. But Toney Douglas' playmaking deficiencies were never so hurtful as they were in this game. He is most effective when looking for his shot or the drive first, and then finding open teammates on a drive and kick, or coming around a screen. When he stops to survey the court in an attempt to play court general, he simply misses too much and ends up bogging the offense down or turning it over.
TD started well offensively, but struggled so much in the second half that D'Antoni sat him for the first six minutes of the 4th because the offense was running well with Carter. When TD was brought back in, the team was in the process of losing its final 12 point lead, and he had the critical turnover of the game with 2:43 left (Knicks up 108-106) when he drove into traffic with no real opportunity and lost the ball -- it was a painful turnover resulting from indecisiveness rather than aggressiveness. D'Antoni replaced him with Carter -- the type of substitution he rarely makes -- and only brought TD back in in the final seconds to give fouls. Douglas ended up with 11 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists and 2 turnovers, but didn't score in the second half, and the stagnation of the offense and significant amount of one on one play (only 13 assists for the team) was on TD.
* Amare, likewise, seemed to make every defensive mistake possible -- he lagged guards casually in transition, he allowed the Cavalier frontline optimal position without much resistance, he lost his man frequently when recovering after providing help, and he closed out on shooters weakly. When he got four fouls, he became so passive that he barely contested two key Cav baskets in front of him that allowed them to bring a ten point lead to six. It's not just Amare, of course -- by the end, the entire team defense was scuffling -- but the hole in the middle was largely his.
* Jared Jeffries is going to be an important part of the defense's eventual improvement, and the few good spells the team had coincided with his presence in the game. He's still figuring out how to fit, though, and his timing isn't razor sharp yet on help or drawing charges -- his periods of foul trouble allowed the Cavs to blow through the huge holes in the Knick defense while he sat. He was a plus 17 through the 10 minute mark of the final quarter, but when he returned to guard Baron Davis in the final minutes, he was no more effective than any other Knick.
* Billups' absence not only hurts the playmaking needed to make the offense roll, it impacts the second unit and results in more ungainly lineups. The unit that started the second quarter (Walker, Shawne, Shelden, JJ, Carter) was actually worse than the Cavs' on offense. Turiaf's absence also hurt in this regard, but the team is more accustomed to him being out. On the plus side, Shelden and AC both had good moments in their time on the floor.
* 1.73 points per possession on Spot ups (17 of 25 FGs), 1.3 PPP on 10 plays where the pick and roll man got the ball and scored. Those are ridiculously high rates of productivity for a 12 win team. Meanwhile, the lack of ball movement meant 30 of the Knicks' 108 plays (28 percent) were isolations, which has to be close to a season high. They were mostly quality isolations, but by the end, the Cavaliers had enough to stop Amare and Carmelo three times on ISOs inside, drawing two charges.
No point in dwelling further on this one, as the road gets a lot tougher with a back to back against the Hawks and Jazz on Sunday and Monday. Get well, Chauncey...fast.
Knicks 107 Hornets 88: Mardi Gras in Manhattan, TD Edition
This is going to be a brief, all over the place recap, because this was one of those March games in the NBA where one team going through a rough stretch sort of rolls over after putting up some resistance early. The Knicks deserve a lot of credit for moving the ball and shooting extremely well in a slow paced game, even with the absence of Billups (54% FG, offensive efficiency of 120 in an 88 possession game). But the Hornets managed another low in a peculiar season of extremes, and the Knicks didn't hesitate to take advantage of weirdly lackadaisical play and some of the ugliest offense this side of the Bucks.
* Toney Douglas was the big storyline, doing what Toney Douglas does by playing for his offense first, and then using that threat to create opportunities for others or at least keep the ball moving. A ten point first quarter (including two 3 pointers) set the tone for a 24 point night based on a ridiculous 10-13 line, including 4-6 on 3 pointers, 4 rebounds, 5 assists and 3 turnovers. Combined with his last game at home against the Bucks (a similar 10-12 shooting masterpiece), TD has shot 20 of 25 FGs, including 7 of 11 3 pointers in his last two home games.
I had two thoughts upon seeing him play as loosely and spiritedly as we've seen him play all season. First, this was the type of performance Knick fans felt he was capable of on a more regular basis based on the latter part of his promising rookie season. (As luck would have it, I attended two consecutive home games he started last season against the Sixers and Rockets, and TD's combined line in those two games was 17-32 FGs, including 10-17 on 3 pointers, and a total of 58 points). But then, I wondered whether his offensive prowess was more of a homecourt phenomenon. It's not unusual for a young player to be more comfortable playing at home, so I looked at some splits:
Interestingly, his 3 point shooting is relatively consistent whether at home or on the road this season (not the case in his rookie season), but his overall shooting is stronger at home. The win-loss splits are more dramatic: his career 3 point shooting to date has consistently been better in wins, but the dip in overall shooting in losses is far worse in his second season. Last season was obviously very different from this year, where the games matter more and TD has more responsibility and pressure. But it's not much of a stretch to say that the Knicks, even with their new superstars, are greatly helped by TD becoming a more consistent force on offense. Perhaps Billups' mentorship will help him find more consistency.
* Mike D'Antoni always has lots of positive things to say in a win, but he won't go over the top when he sees weaknesses or areas of improvement. He referred to TD's "playmaking deficiencies" as a part of who TD is, a pretty pointed phrase tucked into an expansive answer in his press conference about what TD brings to the table. It was an interesting choice of words, but it speaks to how much the coach values top tier playmaking as an engine for his offense. Fortunately, TD didn't have to be Chris Paul -- the team did a superb job of sharing the wealth, even if it went away from most of the sets it ran the previous night and relied more heavily on cuts, handoffs and spot up jumpers. I loved the "Assists" line of the box score so much that I felt it was worth reproducing here:
Very nice. Again, some of this was helped by the absence of the Hornets' typically stifling defensive pressure on those handoffs and cuts -- they did have 8 steals and forced 16 turnovers, but their second effort when they weren't successful in producing a turnover seemed non-existent. But a lot of the assists were the result of good ball movement and it didn't hurt to have TD and Shawne shoot 8 of 12 on three pointers on the end of those swing passes and handoffs.
* Chris Paul had one of the quietest 10 assist games I can remember, and while he had only 3 turnovers, the fact that I can remember them all (two bad passes at the feet of his inside players, along with a strip by TD) says that the overall impression he made was terrible; shooting only 2 of 7 and having the worst plus/minus of any player at -19 reinforced that. He's still wonderful to watch when you look at how meticulously he finds angles on some of his assists, but as has been documented by many, his own offense has cratered recently. I hope for Hornet fans (and basketball fans generally) that it's just another dip in the ups and downs that he's encountered since last year's knee surgery, and that he bounces back eventually.
* Speaking of plus/minus, Jared Jeffries is back! What does Jared have to do with plus/minus...well, when Jared was at his best helping last year's Knicks with the small things he does (rebounds, taking charges, defending multiple positions), plus/minus was usually the way people identified his impact. Which makes it ironic, naturally, that he would be the only Knick in a big blowout win to have a negative number in that category -- on a night where 12 Knicks played, no less. But he looked fine if a bit rusty, and his 4 offensive rebounds are a sign that he's going to continue to help with the badly needed hustle points, and on defense he will definitely help as long as he doesn't have to guard quick slashers (he had some mild issues with Quincy Poindexter). He looked his typical versatile self taking turns guarding Okafor and West for a few possessions.
* Anthony Carter is, like Jeffries, one of those coaches' favorite types that is feast or famine for fans -- but he's growing on me. Last night, he was bringing the hustle, being highly active on defense, going after rebounds relentlessly (7 rebounds!), and pushing the ball whenever he could. He does need to learn that you don't fire a pass in transition to Jeffries...or fire any sort of bullet pass in traffic to JJ period. Having him in a second unit lineup with JJ, Bill Walker, Shawne, and either Carmelo or Amare is definitely a formula for a special brand of chaos on offense -- all that offensively challenged intangible goodness with a single superstar. Llast night, it worked out alright.
* The Knicks defended spiritedly last night after a lackluster first quarter, allowing only Jarrett Jack, a long time nemesis at the Garden, to really go off. It was a little frustrating watching the Knicks concede so much mid-range space to him, even though that's the way they defend, because any regular visitor to Hoopdata would know that Jack is the only non-starter in the top 10 NBA players in made shots from 10-15 feet . Or maybe that's just hopeless geeks like me that remember stuff like that.
* The fact that the majority of this recap barely touches on Amare or Carmelo (and focuses heavily on the bench players and new arrivals) tells you all you need to know about how much of a blowout last night was.
It looks like the Knicks may be without Billups for another game, but fortunately they have the Cavaliers at home on Friday, and they shouldn't lack for motivation after losing twice to them at Quicken Loans. I look forward to seeing how the Knicks adjust after their difficult defeat a week ago, and to seeing the new arrivals get more playing time to better understand how they can be part of the new mix.
* Toney Douglas was the big storyline, doing what Toney Douglas does by playing for his offense first, and then using that threat to create opportunities for others or at least keep the ball moving. A ten point first quarter (including two 3 pointers) set the tone for a 24 point night based on a ridiculous 10-13 line, including 4-6 on 3 pointers, 4 rebounds, 5 assists and 3 turnovers. Combined with his last game at home against the Bucks (a similar 10-12 shooting masterpiece), TD has shot 20 of 25 FGs, including 7 of 11 3 pointers in his last two home games.
I had two thoughts upon seeing him play as loosely and spiritedly as we've seen him play all season. First, this was the type of performance Knick fans felt he was capable of on a more regular basis based on the latter part of his promising rookie season. (As luck would have it, I attended two consecutive home games he started last season against the Sixers and Rockets, and TD's combined line in those two games was 17-32 FGs, including 10-17 on 3 pointers, and a total of 58 points). But then, I wondered whether his offensive prowess was more of a homecourt phenomenon. It's not unusual for a young player to be more comfortable playing at home, so I looked at some splits:
| Toney Douglas | 2010-11 | 2009-10 |
|---|---|---|
| FG% Home | 43.1 | 46.5 |
| FG% Away | 37.2 | 45.1 |
| 3P% Home | 33.6 | 41.8 |
| 3P% Away | 34.5 | 36.5 |
| FG% Win | 44.6 | 48.5 |
| FG% Loss | 35.8 | 44.4 |
| 3P% Win | 40.5 | 45.8 |
| 3P% Loss | 27 | 33.3 |
Interestingly, his 3 point shooting is relatively consistent whether at home or on the road this season (not the case in his rookie season), but his overall shooting is stronger at home. The win-loss splits are more dramatic: his career 3 point shooting to date has consistently been better in wins, but the dip in overall shooting in losses is far worse in his second season. Last season was obviously very different from this year, where the games matter more and TD has more responsibility and pressure. But it's not much of a stretch to say that the Knicks, even with their new superstars, are greatly helped by TD becoming a more consistent force on offense. Perhaps Billups' mentorship will help him find more consistency.
* Mike D'Antoni always has lots of positive things to say in a win, but he won't go over the top when he sees weaknesses or areas of improvement. He referred to TD's "playmaking deficiencies" as a part of who TD is, a pretty pointed phrase tucked into an expansive answer in his press conference about what TD brings to the table. It was an interesting choice of words, but it speaks to how much the coach values top tier playmaking as an engine for his offense. Fortunately, TD didn't have to be Chris Paul -- the team did a superb job of sharing the wealth, even if it went away from most of the sets it ran the previous night and relied more heavily on cuts, handoffs and spot up jumpers. I loved the "Assists" line of the box score so much that I felt it was worth reproducing here:
| Assists vs NOH 3-2-11 | |
|---|---|
| Douglas | 5 |
| Fields | 4 |
| Turiaf | 4 |
| Stoudemire | 4 |
| Anthony | 4 |
| Williams | 2 |
| Jeffries | 1 |
| Carter | 2 |
Very nice. Again, some of this was helped by the absence of the Hornets' typically stifling defensive pressure on those handoffs and cuts -- they did have 8 steals and forced 16 turnovers, but their second effort when they weren't successful in producing a turnover seemed non-existent. But a lot of the assists were the result of good ball movement and it didn't hurt to have TD and Shawne shoot 8 of 12 on three pointers on the end of those swing passes and handoffs.
* Chris Paul had one of the quietest 10 assist games I can remember, and while he had only 3 turnovers, the fact that I can remember them all (two bad passes at the feet of his inside players, along with a strip by TD) says that the overall impression he made was terrible; shooting only 2 of 7 and having the worst plus/minus of any player at -19 reinforced that. He's still wonderful to watch when you look at how meticulously he finds angles on some of his assists, but as has been documented by many, his own offense has cratered recently. I hope for Hornet fans (and basketball fans generally) that it's just another dip in the ups and downs that he's encountered since last year's knee surgery, and that he bounces back eventually.
* Speaking of plus/minus, Jared Jeffries is back! What does Jared have to do with plus/minus...well, when Jared was at his best helping last year's Knicks with the small things he does (rebounds, taking charges, defending multiple positions), plus/minus was usually the way people identified his impact. Which makes it ironic, naturally, that he would be the only Knick in a big blowout win to have a negative number in that category -- on a night where 12 Knicks played, no less. But he looked fine if a bit rusty, and his 4 offensive rebounds are a sign that he's going to continue to help with the badly needed hustle points, and on defense he will definitely help as long as he doesn't have to guard quick slashers (he had some mild issues with Quincy Poindexter). He looked his typical versatile self taking turns guarding Okafor and West for a few possessions.
* Anthony Carter is, like Jeffries, one of those coaches' favorite types that is feast or famine for fans -- but he's growing on me. Last night, he was bringing the hustle, being highly active on defense, going after rebounds relentlessly (7 rebounds!), and pushing the ball whenever he could. He does need to learn that you don't fire a pass in transition to Jeffries...or fire any sort of bullet pass in traffic to JJ period. Having him in a second unit lineup with JJ, Bill Walker, Shawne, and either Carmelo or Amare is definitely a formula for a special brand of chaos on offense -- all that offensively challenged intangible goodness with a single superstar. Llast night, it worked out alright.
* The Knicks defended spiritedly last night after a lackluster first quarter, allowing only Jarrett Jack, a long time nemesis at the Garden, to really go off. It was a little frustrating watching the Knicks concede so much mid-range space to him, even though that's the way they defend, because any regular visitor to Hoopdata would know that Jack is the only non-starter in the top 10 NBA players in made shots from 10-15 feet . Or maybe that's just hopeless geeks like me that remember stuff like that.
* The fact that the majority of this recap barely touches on Amare or Carmelo (and focuses heavily on the bench players and new arrivals) tells you all you need to know about how much of a blowout last night was.
It looks like the Knicks may be without Billups for another game, but fortunately they have the Cavaliers at home on Friday, and they shouldn't lack for motivation after losing twice to them at Quicken Loans. I look forward to seeing how the Knicks adjust after their difficult defeat a week ago, and to seeing the new arrivals get more playing time to better understand how they can be part of the new mix.
Magic 116 Knicks 110: Signs of Hope, Signs of Worry
From the beginning, the Knicks showed a commitment to running things through the pick and roll with more variations and twists featuring Billups, Stoudemire and Anthony. A number of times in the first half, the Knick offense would start with either Amare or Carmelo setting a screen for Billups; the primary options were then for the screener to dive to the basket and receive a pass, or for the other star to come set a second screen for Billups and then dive to the basket while the defense was still focused on the previous roll man. A twist on this was for Amare to receive the pass at the elbow and then for Billups to go set a screen for Anthony on the wing, who would then cut to the basket. In the second half especially, there were a lot of Billups screens on the wings that either freed cutters or initiated another screen-roll action that had the defense scrambling.
The Knicks started the game well executing with these offensive options, but after taking a 15-13 lead, foul trouble on Williams and Amare guarding Howard resulted in Knick lineups that simply couldn't keep up with Dwight and Orlando for the rest of the first quarter. (Poor Shelden Williams was positively torched by Dwight -- though he was a modest -1 for the game, his limited minutes felt like a -100).
In the second quarter, the game changed with Howard resting -- the rest of the Magic couldn't find an offensive rhythm, and even after Dwight returned, they turned the ball over and missed shots, which allowed the Knicks to push the pace, get easier baskets, and get to the foul line more often. (The foul line was a big part of this game, which I'll get to later). The ejection of Hedo with two technicals further discombobulated the Magic, and Billups and Amare drove the run while the Magic missed 13 of 17 shots for the quarter, resulting in an amazing 37-15 quarter that may have been the Knicks' best of the season.
The Knicks maintained control in the third quarter, though the Magic started to get more of an offensive flow, thanks to Jameer Nelson, who shook off his early passivity and started to take the ball to the basket more aggressively. The Magic formula for ultimate success was from the same playbook as the Cavs: run high and medium pick and rolls often, and dare the Knicks to keep up with the ballhandler (The Magic are 4th in the league in points coming from the pick and roll ballhandler, and last night they exceeded their league average in points per possession by a lot against the Knick defense).
Orlando was especially devastating with Nelson's substantial quickness advantage and Howard's ability to set jarring screens. Typically, the Knicks will trap the ballhandler hard, but their traps were timid because of concern about Howard rolling to the rim -- the extreme attention to Howard also allowed shooters like Ryan Anderson and Quentin Richardson to get open looks. Too often, Jameer was either blowing by Billups or Douglas, splitting weak traps, or dropping big jumpers over a collapsed Knick defense.
Nevertheless, the Knicks remained in control with a 10 point lead late in the third quarter, but Richardson's defense on Anthony started to shift the momentum for good. Since the trade, D'Antoni has favored using Carmelo with Douglas and 2-3 low usage bench players for the second units that get time at the end of the first quarter and end of the third. Though these lineups make sense given Carmelo's ball dominance, I've found them a bit rough and offensively challenged -- the ball movement is more ragged, and a lot ends up riding on Melo or Douglas to generate offense, with Walker or Turiaf getting some hustle points and an occasional three. At the end of the third quarter, the Melo-led second unit was effectively turned into a pumpkin by Q-Rich's strong post defense on Melo and Douglas' poor shooting, resulting a good portion of the lead evaporating.
This momentum turned into a tidal wave in the fourth quarter for Orlando -- in addition to Nelson's continued dominance and Howard's activity around the basket, other players like J-Rich and Ryan Anderson got hot, and the Magic made five three pointers in a 37 point quarter and tightened up their defense to pull away. Billups and Amare did what they could to keep the game close, but after Billups had to leave the game with 2 minutes left due to a worrying thigh bruise, the offense turned to mush and the game effectively ended.
Game notes:
* Carmelo's stat line and second half performance didn't look very pretty, and some fans grumbled afterwards that of the Knick "Big 3", he killed the flow down the stretch. Looking at the key sequences in the second half, though, he wasn't terrible -- he was simply better defended in the post by Q-Rich, got unlucky on a couple of non-calls, and exhibited some of the lack of rhythm with new teammates still present after four games. So far, he's definitely been more effective isolated in the post or receiving the ball on the move going toward the basket; his standstill, face-up jumper hasn't been dropping as much.
* The smart guys at Orlando Pinstriped Post and Magic Basketball have continued to make an eloquent case for Dwight Howard as MVP, and this game was another example of how dominant he can be and how much more polished his offensive game is. The Knicks were throwing elbows, sending double teams, and just doing a lot of swatting and flailing in general, and it barely seemed to faze him. While his 17 point first quarter was impressive, I was just as impressed at how he enabled his teammates to break loose in the second half with his screens and movement off the ball; when he did get the ball in the post, he showed a calm in evading double teams and lofting soft hooks over defenders absent from his game in the past.
Nevertheless, the Knicks remained in control with a 10 point lead late in the third quarter, but Richardson's defense on Anthony started to shift the momentum for good. Since the trade, D'Antoni has favored using Carmelo with Douglas and 2-3 low usage bench players for the second units that get time at the end of the first quarter and end of the third. Though these lineups make sense given Carmelo's ball dominance, I've found them a bit rough and offensively challenged -- the ball movement is more ragged, and a lot ends up riding on Melo or Douglas to generate offense, with Walker or Turiaf getting some hustle points and an occasional three. At the end of the third quarter, the Melo-led second unit was effectively turned into a pumpkin by Q-Rich's strong post defense on Melo and Douglas' poor shooting, resulting a good portion of the lead evaporating.
This momentum turned into a tidal wave in the fourth quarter for Orlando -- in addition to Nelson's continued dominance and Howard's activity around the basket, other players like J-Rich and Ryan Anderson got hot, and the Magic made five three pointers in a 37 point quarter and tightened up their defense to pull away. Billups and Amare did what they could to keep the game close, but after Billups had to leave the game with 2 minutes left due to a worrying thigh bruise, the offense turned to mush and the game effectively ended.
Game notes:
* Carmelo's stat line and second half performance didn't look very pretty, and some fans grumbled afterwards that of the Knick "Big 3", he killed the flow down the stretch. Looking at the key sequences in the second half, though, he wasn't terrible -- he was simply better defended in the post by Q-Rich, got unlucky on a couple of non-calls, and exhibited some of the lack of rhythm with new teammates still present after four games. So far, he's definitely been more effective isolated in the post or receiving the ball on the move going toward the basket; his standstill, face-up jumper hasn't been dropping as much.
* The smart guys at Orlando Pinstriped Post and Magic Basketball have continued to make an eloquent case for Dwight Howard as MVP, and this game was another example of how dominant he can be and how much more polished his offensive game is. The Knicks were throwing elbows, sending double teams, and just doing a lot of swatting and flailing in general, and it barely seemed to faze him. While his 17 point first quarter was impressive, I was just as impressed at how he enabled his teammates to break loose in the second half with his screens and movement off the ball; when he did get the ball in the post, he showed a calm in evading double teams and lofting soft hooks over defenders absent from his game in the past.
* Last night's game was fun, a little wild, very chippy, and very slow -- nearly two hours and 40 minutes, with 97 free throws, a record for the season. It's hard to say that it favored one team or the other definitively, as Billups had 20 FTs and Howard had 17. As the game increasingly dragged in the second half, though, the tempo felt like it favored the Magic.
* Amare continues to show the benefits of having new excellent teammates with more room to operate against defenders, and more efficient offense as a result. On defense, unfortunately, things remain a mess -- he had a rough go of it chasing Orlando's shooters on switches, he gave up second chance rebounds, and was overeager on his block attempts (getting fooled on a Q-Rich fake on one play and getting an unnecessary goal-tend on another shot that looked short). It may not all be his fault -- Anthony acknowledged that the communication and coordination on defense are still way off -- but it's still hard to watch. Also, setting this kind of record is something Amare probably doesn't want to be doing too often in the future.
* Amare continues to show the benefits of having new excellent teammates with more room to operate against defenders, and more efficient offense as a result. On defense, unfortunately, things remain a mess -- he had a rough go of it chasing Orlando's shooters on switches, he gave up second chance rebounds, and was overeager on his block attempts (getting fooled on a Q-Rich fake on one play and getting an unnecessary goal-tend on another shot that looked short). It may not all be his fault -- Anthony acknowledged that the communication and coordination on defense are still way off -- but it's still hard to watch. Also, setting this kind of record is something Amare probably doesn't want to be doing too often in the future.
* The pick and rolls I talked about earlier that are livening up the offense? The most spectacular variation came with 5:28 left in the third quarter. Amare received a pass from Billups on the left elbow and faked a handoff to Billups running past him toward the left wing. Billups went over to set a screen for Anthony who cut into the lane, where Amare faked a pass. Amare then passed over to Billups and went over to set another screen. The Magic players defending Amare and Billups went over to trap Billups, while Amare dove towards the left block, and Billups made a between the legs pass to Amare who caught it in stride and swerved around Ryan Anderson for the layup and foul. It was spectacular viewing on its own merits, but even more enjoyable when you noticed the simpler variations that preceded it earlier that set this one up.
* The hype and the attention are all on the new "Big 3" and their ability to mesh, but a side issue is the ability of teammates to contribute when all the defensive attention is on the stars. So far, not so good -- Toney Douglas is 3 for 21 in the last 3 games, Landry Fields 3-14 in the last two, and Shawne Williams has missed 20 of his last 24 three pointers including nine straight. Douglas' issues may be the most worrisome because he is supposed to be the most capable shooter and scorer remaining -- he missed two open looks last night after receiving cross court passes from tightly defended teammates. This is not a good trend, especially if Billups is going to miss more than one game with his thigh bruise injury sustained from a Howard knee.
* To qualify the struggles of the Knick supporting cast, the Knicks have played three of the four games since the trade against top five defenses (Milwaukee, Miami, Orlando). They face another outstanding defense tonight in New Orleans (who has the best schedule-adjusted defense in the West, according to Hoopdata). Without Billups, it could be really rough going, though it will be at home.
One area that's suffered mightily against the good defenses has been baskets coming from spot-ups, which represent the biggest percentage of the Knicks' plays on offense, representing 23 percent of plays. The Knicks prior to the trade averaged 1.04 points per possession (PPP) on spot-ups, good for sixth in the league. In the games since the trade, it's been a much uglier picture:
* The hype and the attention are all on the new "Big 3" and their ability to mesh, but a side issue is the ability of teammates to contribute when all the defensive attention is on the stars. So far, not so good -- Toney Douglas is 3 for 21 in the last 3 games, Landry Fields 3-14 in the last two, and Shawne Williams has missed 20 of his last 24 three pointers including nine straight. Douglas' issues may be the most worrisome because he is supposed to be the most capable shooter and scorer remaining -- he missed two open looks last night after receiving cross court passes from tightly defended teammates. This is not a good trend, especially if Billups is going to miss more than one game with his thigh bruise injury sustained from a Howard knee.
* To qualify the struggles of the Knick supporting cast, the Knicks have played three of the four games since the trade against top five defenses (Milwaukee, Miami, Orlando). They face another outstanding defense tonight in New Orleans (who has the best schedule-adjusted defense in the West, according to Hoopdata). Without Billups, it could be really rough going, though it will be at home.
One area that's suffered mightily against the good defenses has been baskets coming from spot-ups, which represent the biggest percentage of the Knicks' plays on offense, representing 23 percent of plays. The Knicks prior to the trade averaged 1.04 points per possession (PPP) on spot-ups, good for sixth in the league. In the games since the trade, it's been a much uglier picture:
| Opponent | NYK Spot-Up PPP |
|---|---|
| Milwaukee | 0.91 |
| Cleveland | 1.11 |
| Miami | 0.43 |
| Orlando | 0.55 |
| Before Trade | 1.04 |
Source: Synergy Sports
The defenses of elite teams like the Heat and Magic have made it excruciatingly difficult for the Knicks on the perimeter -- and with Anthony's (relatively) cold spot up shooting so far, and shots that used to go to Gallinari and Chandler now going to Douglas, Fields, Williams and Walker, it's been a challenge. The Knicks still got 110 points against the Orlando defense, thanks to a greater percentage of plays dedicated to post-ups and cuts, where the Knicks averaged over a point per possession last night. This diversification of the offense bodes well for the rest of the season, but I still worry about the shooters on this team beyond the stars. (New acquisitions Jared Jeffries and Derrick Brown aren't going to help in this area)
Tonight's back to back against the Hornets at home is going to be another wild, unpredictable one, especially with Billups out. The Knicks have done extremely well against the Hornets under D'Antoni, almost flukishly so, and the Hornets have struggled terribly recently. But Billups has carried this new team so far, and his absence will leave a huge playmaking void in the lineup. The Knicks will try to play at a fast pace regardless, because that's their best shot against a team with such a quality halfcourt defense.
Knicks 91 Heat 86: Developing Talents in South Beach
Knick fans have seen how low an estimable team of talented players can go, against the Cavaliers in just their second game after the huge trade. Against Miami last night, the team went in the opposite direction, soaring high enough to beat the Heat and get a glimpse of just how good things can be, with focus on both ends of the floor, determination against an elite team, and a little luck. It's still going to be a bumpy road on the way to being consistent and developing a real team identity, but the team now has reference points near the floor and close to the clouds.
It's usually the Heat that soar at American Airlines Arena, and during the first quarter, the game looked like it would belong to them once again as they put together a spectacular 34 points filled with quality defense and transition opportunities fueled by that defense. The Knicks were demonstrating strong effort on defense from the start, but they weren't always smart, and the Heat were overwhelming them on both ends. The first quarter ended with a whopping Heat offensive efficiency of 140 points per 100 possessions, while the Knicks were barely over 100 points per 100, which is a bottom five level of offensive efficiency.
Usually, the Knicks get their numbers up after slow starts on offense, but the Heat defense was too good, closing out on shooters and making penetration difficult -- most of the early offense came from Carmelo and Amare on isolations and the occasional break, but the Heat were suffocating the perimeter otherwise (the Knicks missed nine of their first 10 three pointers). D'Antoni gave his first minutes to Anthony Carter as part of the second unit along with Douglas, Balkman and Turiaf, but the results were a mess. Carter showed some promise on defense against Wade, but was terrible whenever he had to take a shot, and Balkman was overly jumpy on defense in his limited minutes.
The game turned weirdly but decisively on a Heat lapse: Wade came down in transition with the Heat up 51-36 with just under 4 minutes left in the first half, and launched an ugly transition three pointer that hit only backboard. The rebound caromed to Billups, who came downcourt and hit his transition three pointer. That basket was the start of a 16-0 run spanning the final 3:50 that included 4 three pointers and gave the Knicks a halftime lead.
A big part of the Knick comeback was Bill Walker, who may have started out as just a bit player in D'Antoni's envisioned rotation -- he was the last player off the bench, coming in with 7 minutes left in the second. He started out playing the power forward and guarding Bosh in a Douglas-Billups-Fields-Amare lineup that was insanely small and got punished inside. Once Anthony returned in the final 5:25 of the half, Walker was more comfortable on the wing playing strong defense against both Wade and Lebron, as well as providing excellent help on the boards (ending the game with 7 rebounds). He ended up leading all players in plus/minus with a plus 22, and played the entire fourth quarter along with Shawne Williams.
The Heat helped the Knicks with some atrocious execution on offense at the end of the first half, falling back on isolations and taking too long to get into their offense generally. In the third quarter, they ratcheted up their defense more tightly against the Knicks, producing seven turnovers, but they seemed to get caught in the Knick pace and made many rushed errors of their own on offense.
In the final quarter, the cat and mouse continued: the Heat would build the lead back to 5 or 6 points, the Knicks would hang around and do just enough on defense to frustrate the Heat. On defense, the Knicks swarmed around Lebron and Wade and did a better job (relative to previous games) of closing out on shooters - the Heat's best offense came from Bosh around the elbow or isolated on the block against Shawne Williams. Eventually, the Heat went to the Bosh well a little too often and he couldn't make the Knicks pay.
After a 3 minute scoreless spell for the Knicks, they ended the game outscoring the Heat 15-4, with every member of the team making big contributions, the biggest ones coming from Billups with two steals and a monstrous 28 foot three pointer over Wade to give the Knicks the lead for good with a minute left. The big defensive stop was a Lebron drive that was met with a weakside block from Amare after good defense from Anthony in narrowing his lane to the basket. All in all, one of the most rousing wins of a season already full of significant highs and lows.
Other game notes:
* A big part of the Knicks' ability to defend more effectively was the ineffective Heat supporting cast: Lebron, Wade and Bosh took 50 of the 74 shots for the Heat, with Mike Miller was the only other double figure scorer. Having players like House, Dampier, Chalmers and Joel Anthony take up minutes without doing much on offense allowed the Knicks to focus more on the stars, while the defenders on the complementary Heat players were able to cheat and provide help.
* Of course, the Cavs didn't exactly have star power and yet destroyed the Knicks on offense, but the biggest improvement in the Knick defense was their abiliity to rebound and limit second chances, avoid fouling, and in defending the pick and roll. Shawne Williams, especially, defended the Lebron-Bosh pick and roll very well for several crucial possessions. In the final seven minutes, Carmelo took on the challenge of defending Lebron one-on-one and managed to stay with him on his outside jumpers and his drives to the basket, and even Amare defended Bosh reasonably well when isolated against him. (Amare was more mixed, to put it charitably, when defending further out on the perimeter on a switch, or when keeping track of perimeter shooters in general on screens, but that's nothing new).
The Heat average 0.93 PPP (points per possession) on isolations and when the ball handler takes the shot on the pick and roll, leading the league in both categories. The Knicks limited them to 0.56 PPP in both categories, considerably better than their usual performance. Even in transition, the Heat got a point per possession, which is below their league leading 1.23 PPP.
* There were some very odd lineups and distributions of minutes with the presence of Carter and the continued tinkering with Balkman. Based on what we saw last night, Carter may get more minutes, especially if he's able to actually play defense on strong wing scorers like Wade -- this is an area of weakness with Billups and Fields. Carter shouldn't get too many minutes, though, as his offense is non-existent. (Meanwhile, Balkman may fall further down on the depth chart with Walker's strong performance). All this will continue to be fluid with Jeffries and Brewer possibly entering the lineup in coming games to provide more versatile defense on the wing (and their own set of offensive issues).
* The role players most affected by the lineup changes and attempts of the team to find out what works have been Fields and Turiaf. The Knicks pre-trade had more shooters and a fleshed out offensive flow that enabled Fields to take his chances when they came on offense and operate with a sense of calm. He's looked a lot more frenetic post-trade, and the more chaotic, non-D'Antoni like Knick spacing on many possessions seems to be leading him to force shots and generally make shakier decisions when he has the ball. Likewise, Turiaf, who should be indispensable on a team badly needing defensive toughness and rebounding, looks simultaneously more active and more lost on both ends of the floor, getting beaten to rebounds and loose balls more than he should. Neither Fields nor Turiaf got playing time in the critical minutes of the fourth quarter.
* Carmelo seems to be taking to heart the many criticisms ventured in recent days on his ball dominance and his defense. He still took the most shots and had a couple of questionable offensive decisions, but on the whole he harnessed his mid-range game and explosion on isolations with impressive focus, and made more of an attempt to reverse the ball and find teammates when the defense was tilted his way. Amare did not have a lot of shots, but he had more space to operate relative to the previous 3 games against the Heat, and he had Melo to thank for some of that.
* Mike D'Antoni gives post-game interviews with the usual share of coaching platitudes and a focus on the positive, so the fun part is teasing out his thoughts from slight hesitations or digressions in an otherwise standard response to a question. (the byways he takes are very conscious - he manages the New York press well) The aside I found of interest was in the midst of his praise of Amare and Melo as having a lot of "heart" and "the bigger the game, the bigger the stage, the bigger they play". He inserted a benign aside about how "for whatever reason, maybe because they think they can outscore everybody a lot of times, that you don't see it all the time" -- "it" being commitment to defense. The message should be very clear though: show this level of commitment more often.
Another tough game coming up against Orlando, which should provide a sterner test of the Knick defense in the middle with Dwight Howard making his case loudly for the MVP in recent games. The Magic are more balanced on the perimeter and (at their best) more fluid on offense than the Heat, so it will be interesting to see how well the Knicks can carry over their defensive effort and whether they'll continue to improve their offensive flow. I have a hunch we'll see a much higher scoring game than what we saw in Miami.
Recap: Cavaliers 115 Knicks 109
Photo: Getty Images
This was a bad loss, though not a total shock for anyone paying close attention to these teams. You can't really sugar-coat giving up 115 points to a 10 win Cleveland team with the 2nd worst offense in the league (a game after giving up 108 points to the worst offense in a win), but adding two weak veteran defenders to an already bad defensive team and trading away the most useful wing defenders will definitely destroy what little defensive continuity existed before.
In fairness to the Cavaliers, over the previous nine games they've been much better than their offensive efficiency average, and competed more effectively as a result. Still, after trading one of their best offensive options away in Mo Williams, one surely didn't expect them to be this productive, even against a struggling Knick defense. But they played much harder (JJ Hickson, Ramon Sessions and Alonzo Gee especially) and got to every loose ball and dominated on the boards.
The game actually looked very much under the Knicks' control after the Cavs jumped to a first quarter lead, when the second unit along with Carmelo Anthony got some time together. They wiped out a six point deficit and after Amare swapped places with Melo to start the second quarter, built a nine point lead and manage to hold the Cavs to nine points in nearly 10 minutes going back to the last minute and a half of the 1st quarter. Some sloppy Knick play, along with bad breaks and too much fouling helped the Cavs score 16 points in the final 4:54 of the half to tie the game at 53-53 capped off by a Sessions buzzer beating 3 pointer.
The wheels really came off in the second half as the Knicks gave up 62 points. Melo missed his last six shots of the third quarter and had two turnovers, and the team as a whole seemed to labor much more on offense, which carried over to their defense which was painfully slow closing out on shooters and getting to the glass. (Even with Lebron long gone from the Q, the Knicks still continue a pattern of playing as if wading through much thicker air than their Ohio opponents). The fourth quarter was more of the same, though made exciting by Billups' 20 point quarter and more dynamic scoring from Amare inside (started out 2 for 9, ended up making 12 of his last 18 shots).
The Knicks got it down to two points several times in the final two minutes, but like the previous loss to the Cavs in November, could not get a stop and constantly got burned on the pick and roll. To my eye, Amare was the defender that was burned the most throughout the game, even with 5 blocked shots, but Melo had the loudest defensive gaffes in crunch time with over-aggressive defense on Antawn Jamison leading to a couple of baskets given up along with two quick fouls, and he eventually fouled out -- hard not to wonder whether George Karl's comments on TV the other night about his lack of defensive focus were in his head. (That's also two straight games where one superstar has fouled out with a seeming loss of composure)
Other game notes:
* This was a wild game in so many ways -- Knick with 93 shots, the Cavs with 92, both teams shooting 42 percent, and a total of 19 blocked shots and 73 free throws. Amare having 5 blocked shots *and* 5 of his shots blocked is something I can't imagine happens too much.
* The Cavs average 0.82 points per possession when the ball handler on the pick and roll takes the shot, according to Synergy Sports, which ranks them 14th in the league. Against the Knicks, they scored over a point per possession (1.05 PPP), shooting 7 for 14, including 2 for 4 on 3 pointers. The two critical baskets that sealed the win for the Cavs were a Sessions drive against Douglas and a Boobie Gibson three, both off the pick and roll, where the Knicks on the ball and on the screener reacted slowly. Likewise on spot up jumpers, the Cavs punched way above their weight (1.11 PPP, 8 for 15 FGs) thanks to that giving Knick defense.
As D'Antoni pointed out after the game, the defense on the initial shot wasn't terrible for much of the game (at least not after the first quarter), but giving up so many second chances killed them.
* Most interesting addition to the second unit: Renaldo Balkman, who was not the player I expected D'Antoni to give some burn to. He only played 7 and a half minutes, but was part of the lineup that turned the game around in the first half. It was a classic "intangibles" game for Balkman, as his contributions consisted mainly of stabilizing the defense, hitting the boards, and setting screens on offense (which he did well). He took no shots, had 2 rebounds and 2 fouls, and ended up with a plus 15.
Balkman did get burned on a drive by Gee in the second half, but I'm curious to see if the coaches give him another shot in future games. Now that Jared Jeffries has become available, D'Antoni has a fascinating array of awkward defensive players (Balkman, Brewer, JJ) to choose from that can play critical roles in plugging leaks in the defense.
* Toney Douglas and Shawne Williams could produce no magic on offense, combining to shoot 2 for 14. (Shawne has missed 14 of his last 18 threes, which makes you wonder whether he's finally coming back down to earth). TD had many other positive contributions, including an amazing steal of a pass after falling on his backside, but the lack of offense after such a stellar game against the Bucks really hurt, even though offense was far from the biggest of the Knick problems last night.
* The offense had its moments throughout the game, and one continues to see that once Billups, STAT, and Melo all get their games in sync, the results could be amazing. Billups did a better job of finding Amare off curls and on the pick and roll, and Carmelo found Turiaf rolling to the rim a couple of times from the wing. There are still too many stretches where the offensive flow feels like a bowling ball on a see-saw, with the weight shifting wildly from one side to the other and then coming to a halt with an isolation and too much ball watching from everyone else.
This was only the second game of the "new" Knicks, and it looks like it could be another half dozen games before the starters really get comfortable with each other's tendencies. Right now, it's no coincidence that the "one star" lineups with either Anthony or Stoudemire seem to be more productive than the lineups with both stars playing.
* While the team adjusts to its new identity, having to learn on the lfy is a dicey proposition as they're only two games above .500, and staring at a very high likelihood of falling below .500 after two difficult games in Florida next week followed by the Hornets at home on the second of a back to back. Furthermore, this isn't the cute little engine that can sneak up on teams anymore (that team is now in Denver) -- this is a high profile team that's received ridiculous press in the wake of the trade deadline, and that other teams now look forward to beating up on. The Sixers are charging hard in the rear view mirror, and the new waves of fair weather New York and national media will be sharpening their knives if the Knicks stumble further.
Next week will be very interesting. The good news is that the higher level of competition should produce more urgency which in turn should produce better focus than what we saw against the Cavaliers. It may not be enough to produce a win in the next two games, but the Knicks will learn a lot more about themselves and how to move forward.
Knicks 114 Bucks 108: At Home, We Are Tourists For One Night
Knick fans have been through a few new beginnings and evolutionary steps in the process of trying to rebuild the image of the franchise. The introduction of the D'Antoni/Walsh Knicks two and half years ago brought a fresh wave of enthusiasm back to the Garden, then the introduction of Tracy McGrady at MSG a year ago brought an additional jolt of excitement to a team that was otherwise being dissembled bit by bit for cap space. The signing of Amare last summer and the acquisition of some excellent complementary pieces generated the next wave of excitement and got fans heavily invested in a Knick team good enough get to 28-26 this season, in good position for a playoff spot. Finally, a good half of that team then got traded and upgraded to the current stars of the moment making their debut last night -- Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups.
The result was maybe the loudest and most hyped crowd yet for a mid-season NBA game at MSG, and while the results weren't artistic, the Knicks got a very important win over the Bucks, 114-108. An important win because the team needs to win the games it should win while its challengers for the playoffs (Pacers, Sixers) continue to play well. Important because the Bucks, sickly offense, difficult year and all, have managed to frustrate the Knicks for all of D'Antoni's tenure, and proving they could overcome the Buck hurdle (while further stifling the Bucks' increasingly distant playoff chances) was big psychologically.
The game was discordant for the better part of three quarters, as the lineup struggled to mesh and was jagged in its rhythms, whether the Knicks were trying to execute with messy spacing in the halfcourt, or when they tried to run and threw errant passes upcourt. Knick fans have put so much into their support of the team that played the first 54 games of the season that early on, you couldn't help but looking for Gallinari in the corner or on the bench, or expect Chandler to be rebounding a long jumper, or wonder why Chauncey wasn't rifling a Felton type pocket pass when Amare found daylight in the lane after slipping a pick, to name just a few moments where old ghosts seemed to hover around the spectacle on the court.
Anthony and Billups were tourists at their debut, gamely attempting to execute the token plays provide by their new coach in the brief time they had after their introductory press conference, and then largely reverting to the synergies they'd developed from their Nugget days, which made their sparkling blue Knick throwbacks look even more peculiar. All this unfamiliarity amidst the game hype had the effect of reducing Amare to a fifth wheel for much of the game -- he got his points, but didn't get many shots, rarely received passes in rhythm and more than usual, seemed to want to force things down the throat of a very good Buck defense when he did have the ball.
Thank goodness for Toney Douglas, who was magnificent off the bench (23 points on 10-12 shooting), and in tandem with Billups for most of the fourth quarter. TD's best stretches were a five minute one at the end of the first quarter (3-3, 2 assists, 1 steal, 1 rebounds, +4) and another five minute stint at the end of the third quarter (4-4, +6). Douglas played 29 minutes last night, and given Billups won't be able to handle Felton's 38 minute workloads, it's a sure bet that TD will be averaging closer to 30 minutes or more the rest of the season after averaging 22 for the season to date. His shot chart was a thing of beauty:
Meanwhile, Anthony had a really rough time for three quarters and at least 2 or 3 different times reverted to the "hold the ball for five seconds then force a long jumper" maneuver, with the expected results. Despite this, there were enough flashes of his explosiveness around the basket that when he asserted himself with more confidence in the fourth quarter, there were glimpses of how much pressure the Melo-Amare tandem can put on defenses with proper spacing and a measured approach to exploiting gaps in the defense.
After missing 11 of 17 shots in the first three quarters, Melo shot 4 for 8 in the final quarter and made two crucial baskets in the final minute when the Bucks were continuing to keep the score close, especially with Amare inexplicably losing his cool and picking up his 15th technical while also fouling out of the game. Here's how his shot chart looked for the final quarter -- pretty much everything from the right side of the court, and he was most dangerous attacking from the right baseline or on the lower right block.
Some other game notes:
* If you didn't watch the game and just looked at the box score and some advanced stats, you'd justifiably figure that the Knicks were typically awful defensively in allowing a team as poor offensively as the Bucks to score 108 points. And indeed, there were many instances early in the game where the defensive spacing was terrible as everyone swarmed around Bogut and did too much ball watching, giving up offensive rebounds, kickouts for long jumpers, and fouling way too much -- both Anthony and Amare spent big portions of the game in foul trouble. However, the Bucks shot a pretty anomalous 11 for 23 on 3 pointers, and the Knicks were fairly active on defense and got their share of stops in a strange game. In conclusion, not all that terrible under the circumstances, especially since the Knicks were able to score 114 against a top five defense, shaky star performances and all.
* The biggest adjustments on offense during the next ten games or so may not be in altering the way Carmelo or Amare dominate the ball or initiate their attack (in Melo's case from the right wing or right lower block, in Amare's case from one of the elbows), but in getting Billups and the other Knicks to recognize how the defenses are shading toward these threats, and getting the ball to one of them accordingly. Amare and Melo will probably take turns dominating the ball for several possessions at a time, but as they get more comfortable playing together and learn to get out of each other's way, we may eventually see a more dynamic two man game, even though neither is an especially gifted passer out of double teams.
* The Synergy numbers on the plays that the Knicks ran broke out almost identically to their season averages, oddly enough -- spot up jumpers, isolations, transition baskets, and shots by the ball handler off the pick and roll. There was only one shot attempt by a player diving off the pick and roll, though, and 8 post ups -- the coaches will want to see those numbers go up slightly, as well as getting the quality of the spot up opportunities to be higher than the many contested jumpers taken last night.
* Anthony and Billups were the only new acquisitions to play -- others who might have helped, such as Anthony Carter for spot PG minutes, or Corey Brewer for better wing defense, got DNPs, understandable given they just got to NY. Fields ended up playing 42 minutes, which I think is too much, especially since he got torched by John Salmons frequently. There are still faint rumors that Brewer may be headed to another team, but if he stays, I hope D'Antoni can find room for him as part of the aggressive second unit along with TD, Shawne and Bill Walker -- I can easily see Brewer taking minutes from Walker, especially since BW can't seem to find his shot lately.
The result was maybe the loudest and most hyped crowd yet for a mid-season NBA game at MSG, and while the results weren't artistic, the Knicks got a very important win over the Bucks, 114-108. An important win because the team needs to win the games it should win while its challengers for the playoffs (Pacers, Sixers) continue to play well. Important because the Bucks, sickly offense, difficult year and all, have managed to frustrate the Knicks for all of D'Antoni's tenure, and proving they could overcome the Buck hurdle (while further stifling the Bucks' increasingly distant playoff chances) was big psychologically.
The game was discordant for the better part of three quarters, as the lineup struggled to mesh and was jagged in its rhythms, whether the Knicks were trying to execute with messy spacing in the halfcourt, or when they tried to run and threw errant passes upcourt. Knick fans have put so much into their support of the team that played the first 54 games of the season that early on, you couldn't help but looking for Gallinari in the corner or on the bench, or expect Chandler to be rebounding a long jumper, or wonder why Chauncey wasn't rifling a Felton type pocket pass when Amare found daylight in the lane after slipping a pick, to name just a few moments where old ghosts seemed to hover around the spectacle on the court.
Anthony and Billups were tourists at their debut, gamely attempting to execute the token plays provide by their new coach in the brief time they had after their introductory press conference, and then largely reverting to the synergies they'd developed from their Nugget days, which made their sparkling blue Knick throwbacks look even more peculiar. All this unfamiliarity amidst the game hype had the effect of reducing Amare to a fifth wheel for much of the game -- he got his points, but didn't get many shots, rarely received passes in rhythm and more than usual, seemed to want to force things down the throat of a very good Buck defense when he did have the ball.
Thank goodness for Toney Douglas, who was magnificent off the bench (23 points on 10-12 shooting), and in tandem with Billups for most of the fourth quarter. TD's best stretches were a five minute one at the end of the first quarter (3-3, 2 assists, 1 steal, 1 rebounds, +4) and another five minute stint at the end of the third quarter (4-4, +6). Douglas played 29 minutes last night, and given Billups won't be able to handle Felton's 38 minute workloads, it's a sure bet that TD will be averaging closer to 30 minutes or more the rest of the season after averaging 22 for the season to date. His shot chart was a thing of beauty:
Meanwhile, Anthony had a really rough time for three quarters and at least 2 or 3 different times reverted to the "hold the ball for five seconds then force a long jumper" maneuver, with the expected results. Despite this, there were enough flashes of his explosiveness around the basket that when he asserted himself with more confidence in the fourth quarter, there were glimpses of how much pressure the Melo-Amare tandem can put on defenses with proper spacing and a measured approach to exploiting gaps in the defense.
After missing 11 of 17 shots in the first three quarters, Melo shot 4 for 8 in the final quarter and made two crucial baskets in the final minute when the Bucks were continuing to keep the score close, especially with Amare inexplicably losing his cool and picking up his 15th technical while also fouling out of the game. Here's how his shot chart looked for the final quarter -- pretty much everything from the right side of the court, and he was most dangerous attacking from the right baseline or on the lower right block.
Some other game notes:
* If you didn't watch the game and just looked at the box score and some advanced stats, you'd justifiably figure that the Knicks were typically awful defensively in allowing a team as poor offensively as the Bucks to score 108 points. And indeed, there were many instances early in the game where the defensive spacing was terrible as everyone swarmed around Bogut and did too much ball watching, giving up offensive rebounds, kickouts for long jumpers, and fouling way too much -- both Anthony and Amare spent big portions of the game in foul trouble. However, the Bucks shot a pretty anomalous 11 for 23 on 3 pointers, and the Knicks were fairly active on defense and got their share of stops in a strange game. In conclusion, not all that terrible under the circumstances, especially since the Knicks were able to score 114 against a top five defense, shaky star performances and all.
* The biggest adjustments on offense during the next ten games or so may not be in altering the way Carmelo or Amare dominate the ball or initiate their attack (in Melo's case from the right wing or right lower block, in Amare's case from one of the elbows), but in getting Billups and the other Knicks to recognize how the defenses are shading toward these threats, and getting the ball to one of them accordingly. Amare and Melo will probably take turns dominating the ball for several possessions at a time, but as they get more comfortable playing together and learn to get out of each other's way, we may eventually see a more dynamic two man game, even though neither is an especially gifted passer out of double teams.
* The Synergy numbers on the plays that the Knicks ran broke out almost identically to their season averages, oddly enough -- spot up jumpers, isolations, transition baskets, and shots by the ball handler off the pick and roll. There was only one shot attempt by a player diving off the pick and roll, though, and 8 post ups -- the coaches will want to see those numbers go up slightly, as well as getting the quality of the spot up opportunities to be higher than the many contested jumpers taken last night.
* Anthony and Billups were the only new acquisitions to play -- others who might have helped, such as Anthony Carter for spot PG minutes, or Corey Brewer for better wing defense, got DNPs, understandable given they just got to NY. Fields ended up playing 42 minutes, which I think is too much, especially since he got torched by John Salmons frequently. There are still faint rumors that Brewer may be headed to another team, but if he stays, I hope D'Antoni can find room for him as part of the aggressive second unit along with TD, Shawne and Bill Walker -- I can easily see Brewer taking minutes from Walker, especially since BW can't seem to find his shot lately.
* On the Bucks' side, Bogut and Jennings exerted their influence on the game, but both seemed weirdly subpar, Jennings especially. Bogut was a force on the boards and largely contained Stoudemire, but his offense was lumbering and his passes out of swarming double and triple teams wasn't always crisp -- for a while, the best Buck offense was watching 3 to 4 Knicks flail at Bogut and have another Buck swoop in for the offensive board and a better shot. Both Bogut and Jennings don't look like they're fully healthy, and that was probably enough to keep the Bucks from stealing one.
* It will be *really* weird to watch the old Knicks in Nugget uniforms on Thursday night, especially since they'll be playing the Celtics. Just as weird as seeing Billups in Knick blue. While few fans would have passed up this opportunity to upgrade, and it's all a business in the end, it will be hard not to miss the old Knicks for a few games, given the effort they put into representing the team. Anyone who fails to understand this should see just how hard they played their final game in a Knick uniform against Atlanta before the All-Star break -- after years of terribly indifferent Knick play by a cast of vagabonds and underachievers, fans should never take for granted that kind of effort (at a time of year when most teams mail it in), and be grateful for what they gave New York.
Next up is a road game against Cleveland, which didn't go so well the last time the Knicks were there. That was while Varejao was still playing, where he put on a defensive clinic in stifling Stoudemire. This Cavs team is much more of a mess, and the acquisition of a disgruntled Baron Davis at the trade deadline should make them a far more beatable opponent. Perhaps it will provide opportunities for some of the other Knick trade deadline acquisitions to get a few minutes as well.
* It will be *really* weird to watch the old Knicks in Nugget uniforms on Thursday night, especially since they'll be playing the Celtics. Just as weird as seeing Billups in Knick blue. While few fans would have passed up this opportunity to upgrade, and it's all a business in the end, it will be hard not to miss the old Knicks for a few games, given the effort they put into representing the team. Anyone who fails to understand this should see just how hard they played their final game in a Knick uniform against Atlanta before the All-Star break -- after years of terribly indifferent Knick play by a cast of vagabonds and underachievers, fans should never take for granted that kind of effort (at a time of year when most teams mail it in), and be grateful for what they gave New York.
Next up is a road game against Cleveland, which didn't go so well the last time the Knicks were there. That was while Varejao was still playing, where he put on a defensive clinic in stifling Stoudemire. This Cavs team is much more of a mess, and the acquisition of a disgruntled Baron Davis at the trade deadline should make them a far more beatable opponent. Perhaps it will provide opportunities for some of the other Knick trade deadline acquisitions to get a few minutes as well.
Carmelo Joins the Knicks: Superstar Alchemy, Or Something Less?
In the end, the Knicks had to give up Raymond Felton, Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari, Timofey Mozgov, Anthony Randolph, Eddy Curry, two second round picks acquired from the Warriors in the David Lee trade last summer, a 2014 first rounder, and $3 million in cash.
Depending on your perspective, this is either one of the best New York deals ever, one of the worst (if you don't have ESPN Insider access on that last link, John Hollinger ranks the deal a "D+" for the Knicks), or a largely fair deal that involves some necessary pain. My perspective skews toward the "fair deal" given the circumstances, but like many basketball fans I have significant reservations about the process it took to get to this point, and the long term price paid to get to a marginally improved position with a hint of greater upside.
There are so many ways to consider the impact of this deal on the Knicks - in terms of the organizational dynamics, the team in its current run toward the playoffs, the team in the wake of a new collective bargaining agreement, the ability to add future pieces to the team, etc. An impressive amount of smart stuff has already been written in the hours after the consummation of the deal, as well as a lot of breathless "TWO SUPERSTARS!!!" gushing that radically prioritizes superstar alchemy over the more mundane details of team building.
Here are a few of my early thoughts on the impact of the deal, mostly from a tactical perspective:
* Short Term Team Chemistry and the Playoff Race Will Be Bumpy: No matter how good you think two superstars and a savvy, veteran point guard can be together, the timing of this trade is likely to have an awkward short term impact on the team's up and down race for the playoffs. Replacing Felton with Billups -- a better shooter as a point guard, but one who's far less comfortable with transition and the pick and roll game, along with the replacement of two crucial, complementary wing players with a scorer whose historical usage matches that of your high usage superstar, is a serious short term disruption. Lots of teams would love to have the problem of dropping players of this quality into their starting lineup, but it's not a given that these players can all mesh smoothly enough late in the season to make wins over even teams fighting for the lower East playoff seeds a given.
D'Antoni may choose to cope short term by implementing some plays from Denver's offense to allow Billups and Anthony to take advantage of their experience playing together (cue the jokes about half the plays being variations on a Billups swing pass to Anthony followed by a dozen jab steps and a long jumper). The "good news", such as it is, is that the Knicks traded away the players that would have been most affected -- the remaining Knicks apart from Amare are role players who shouldn't be too disoriented by the tweaks to the offense.
The Knicks have a more manageable schedule for the rest of the season after a rough 2011 so far. The schedules for other teams they'll be competing against are a mixed bag: the Sixers have a very favorable schedule filled with home games (and prior to this trade, they had been playing much better basketball overall than the Knicks), while the Hawks have a much more difficult schedule ahead, and the Pacers are about to go through a slew of road games. I still wouldn't be surprised to see the Knicks lose at least two or three games they normally wouldn't drop as they work out the kinks, possibly even this week against the Bucks or Cavs. In a worst case scenario, a loss to the Heat on Sunday would leave them lingering a game over or under .500, which would be fabulous fodder for the tabloids.
* Two Black Holes...Or Is it Three...Will Produce a Different Offense: Early knee-jerk reaction on the offensive impact of pairing Anthony with Amare swings between the poles of "you can't double team those two guys -- they'll be unstoppable" and "you can't accommodate two ball-dominant black holes who never pass on offense". The latter point has been made several times, most recently by Steve Kerr, who noted during the All-Star game broadcast that a D'Antoni offense demands ball movement and that the ball tends to stick in Anthony's hands, gumming up the offense.
This is a topic worthy of more examination than I can do justice to right now, but let's look at the black hole argument a little more closely. Conveniently, Tom Ziller of SB Nation recently developed a terrific graphic that looked at players fitting this black hole description, and Basketball-Reference followed up with an even more thorough examination of how players at different positions compare in terms of their willingness to pass relative to the touches they get.
Take a look at how Carmelo compares to his predecessors, and to Lebron James, the most pass-happy and least black-hole like of superstars despite the incredible number of touches he gets (pay attention to the %Pass column in particular):
| Min | MPG | T/Min | %Pass | %Shoot | %Fouled | %TO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmelo Anthony | 1774 | 35.5 | 1.22 | 36.60% | 43.00% | 14.10% | 6.30% |
| Wilson Chandler | 1759 | 34.5 | 0.75 | 36.60% | 51.50% | 7.10% | 4.80% |
| Danilo Gallinari | 1671 | 34.8 | 0.74 | 37.50% | 39.50% | 18.50% | 4.50% |
| Lebron James | 2070 | 38.3 | 1.91 | 59.60% | 25.80% | 9.40% | 5.20% |
Source: Basketball-Reference.com
This chart confirms suspicions about Anthony (fifth lowest overall among small forwards in terms of propensity to pass), but Chandler and Gallinari are actually no more likely to pass than Anthony -- however, they get far less touches, and as Neil Paine points out in the blog post accompanying his black hole analysis, a player who gets many more touches while having the same pass percentage is going to be the bigger black hole. Interestingly, one of Anthony's strengths - his ability to draw fouls - hasn't even been as high as Gallinari's this season, but again, he touches the ball a lot more, and it's reasonable to assume given his experience and stature in the league that he'll help the Knicks more than Gallo did this season.
The more interesting analysis, though, comes at the point guard position:
| Min | MPG | T/Min | %Pass | %Shoot | %Fouled | %TO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chauncey Billups | 1646 | 32.3 | 1.45 | 64.40% | 21.60% | 8.80% | 5.20% |
| Raymond Felton | 2074 | 38.4 | 1.85 | 71.80% | 20.00% | 3.70% | 4.40% |
Source: basketball-reference.com
This chart underlines the previous bullet point about how much the offense may have to be tweaked with Billups in charge instead of Felton. Not only is Billups a lower touch/lower usage guard within Denver's offense, he is much less of a pass-first PG than Felton is. In fact, among PGs overall, Billups has the seventh lowest pass percentage (just ahead of the likes of shoot first types like Stuckey, Rose, Curry and Udrih), while Felton is 18th -- Billups is also more turnover prone. One encouraging tidbit to take from this comparison is that Billups is far more likely to draw fouls.
So is it curtains to the smoothly functioning, pick and roll oriented, ball-movement offense of Mike D'Antoni with the addition of Billups and Anthony, who like Amare rank low among peers in propensity to pass and somewhat high in turning the ball over? Here's where I take a leap of faith and proclaim that if any coach can get three shot-happy types to produce great offense together, it would be Mike D'Antoni.
First off, Billups, Amare and Melo will have the very low usage Fields and (for the moment) Turiaf to round off the starting five, so they will not demand the ball or need shots to be productive. Second, Amare's turnovers have come from a tendency to force action or receive passes against swarming defenses focused exclusively on him. The presence of Anthony, in particular, will probably open up more space for Amare, and opponents will have to respect Billups' ability to hit a jumper on the pick and roll more than with Felton (expect to see more trapping of Billups rather than defenses going under the screen as they did with Felton). Third, there's no reason Anthony can't run pick and rolls with Amare to change up the look of the offense -- admittedtly, this is a theoretical wish, since if Gallo or Chandler couldn't run PnRs with Amare, it may be too much to expect Carmelo to be any more successful in their place given his limited playmaking abilities. But it's something D'Antoni should experiment with.
The thing with D'Antoni is that he is not as set in his ways with offensive execution as people assume him to be -- he is superb at playing to the strengths of his players and orchestrating the flow of the offense accordingly, whether it means running side pick and rolls, a motion offense, or isolations. He strongly prefers ball movement and spacing the floor with three point shooters -- given he has fewer options than he used to, he may be wringing his hands a little at the challenges he has with his current lineup. But this isn't Al Harrington, Nate Robinson and Sergio Rodriguez he's inherited -- these are talented, experienced players with a winning pedigree. I'm optimistic the offense will remain strong after some early adjustments. It's likely to be a somewhat slower offense with points coming from more isolations, more fouls drawn, and more offensive rebounds.
* Defense Could Get Worse...Much, Much Worse: I made this note on twitter last night: the Knicks are adding two of Denver's weakest defenders, according to Synergy Sports, based on Points per Possession Allowed -- Anthony is 293rd in the league in PPP allowed, Billups 222nd. Consider that Amare is 323rd in the league and Fields is 294th, that Chandler and Gallinari were two of the Knicks' better one on one defenders and that even Mozgov at least added some height and shot blocking. The grim reality is that the new look Knick team is likely to be even worse defending the perimeter, and if Turiaf can't stay healthy, just as atrocious in defending the middle.
There really isn't much to be said here -- the Knicks were already a sub par defensive team before the trade, but they were capable of defending in stretches. Usually 1-2 quarters of capable defense against equal to lesser teams combined with good to great offense has been enough to win many games, but that's going to be more difficult to expect with the current roster. A small glimmer of hope (and it's pretty small) can come from Corey Brewer if the Knicks choose to keep him -- he's a very good wing defender and awkward offensive player that will remind Knick fans (loosely) of Jared Jeffries, and he can be used to defend opposing PGs and wings the way Jeffries used to. Other options are Kelenna Azuibuike, if he really is close to healing, and there are even rumors that Jeffries may become available in the final days leading to the trade deadline.
This is where the loss of Mozgov hurt, even if it wasn't worth holding up the deal to keep him: whatever people say about D'Antoni's issues with big men, the coach knew that a moderately functional player in the middle with some upside on both offense and defense could reduce the pressure on Amare and keep him out of foul trouble. Turiaf will serve that function for now, but as noted in this space many times before, cross your fingers every time he plays more than 15-20 minutes for longer than a week.
* Fault Lines in the Organization Are Now Visible: I'm not qualified to venture much more than the usual hand-wringing on all the particulars of the organizational dynamics that led to the Knicks giving up much more than they originally intended. The overwhelming narrative ventured in recent articles has been Isiah Thomas and Jim Dolan (with generous helpings of Leon Rose and CAA) working to overrun the cautious and careful approach of Walsh and D'Antoni in order to get the superstar. The history of management at MSG always leads one to expect the worst, and enough reporters I respect have weighed in with reports of disgust from Walsh's camp to make me sigh deeply on this one.
With that said, the end result is hardly a disaster, and the main short term issue seems to be one of how much the acquired superstar was really valued by the different parties. The bigger concern is what this whole episode implies for the future of the organization and the approach to team building. If the result of all this is that Walsh is not re-signed and D'Antoni is held to a much higher standard for a team that's only slightly better than the previous one -- meaning he's either let go or put on a short leash next season if the team goes out in the first round -- then I start to worry much more about the inmates running the asylum.
For those who say it's time that D'Antoni is held more accountable since he's had a "free pass" for two and a half years, I would say he's been asked to put up with multiple rebuilds and strip mining of the team in a two and a half year period, without the benefit of lower visibility in a small market or an orderly team building process He's making big money, and of course he should be held accountable -- I suspect that he's harsher on himself than most of the press could be. But building a winning team is more than swapping players in and out fantasy-style -- developing a winning culture and fostering continuity and the persistence of winning habits through the right kinds of players and personnel is something that requires commitment from the entire organization. D'Antoni has been given more talent along with a mandate to win more quickly and more dramatically -- but the way this trade was accomplished makes one wonder whether the people upstairs really understand what building a winner entails beyond hoarding superstars and catering to the World Wide Weses.
Final Thoughts
Looking at what I've written, this reads like a rather jaded perspective on one of the most interesting (if infuriating) episodes in the history of the Knicks' return to relevance in the NBA. But there are many good reasons to be excited, even for those skeptical on the benefits of superstar alchemy or doubtful about Anthony being a top 10 player. I'm not overly wedded to the way efficiency metrics portray Anthony (Nate Silver summarizes this argument well), and do believe that just as Amare surprised all basketball fans with the way he assumed leadership and demonstrated a newfound level of maturity upon joining the Knicks, Carmelo can do something similar in a new environment. He can play with Amare, he can be a better defender, he can lead. I genuinely believe this can all happen and that he wants it to happen.
There are intangibles that can be mined when you put these kinds of players together in the current competitive environment, with the right kind of coaching and system -- Carmelo and Amare understand they'll be held to the standards of the Celtics and Heat, and though they don't have enough yet to get there, they're going to aim high and set the bar considerably above what this year's Knicks have done to date. They can't afford to sink to the level of a more earthbound superstar pairing like Melo and Iverson (from several years ago on the Nuggets) -- this would be a hugely disappointing result with implications for their legacies.
I can't wait to see this team play the rest of the season, and there will be much greater interest from casual fans, much more media coverage. One senses that even people skittish about what all this player movement means for the league are excited to see another high visibility basketball experiment unfold. For the remainder of the season, I don't know if the Knicks can be much more than an entertaining sixth or seventh seed. But health and organizational dynamics permitting, there is upside there. I just hope we don't have to wait until 2012 to see it come to fruition.
Recap: Spurs 101 Knicks 92
D Evans, Getty Images
This game played out according to expectations with Turiaf's return to the starting lineup, especially with the Spurs as an opponent. Better defense, but a continuing slog on offense for the Knicks, leading to the team's 5th straight loss. This ended up being another low efficiency outing (95 points per 100 possessions), making it the 4th time in 7 games now that the Knick offense has struggled. Felton, Amare and Chandler combined to shoot 19 of 56 in a brutal cacophony of bricks that would have made Scott Skiles proud.
The game got off to a bad start when Amare puzzlingly fouled DeJuan Blair on a breakaway layup only 3 and a half minutes into the game, rather than letting the layup go, opening himself up to early foul trouble. On cue, as soon as Jeff Van Gundy started criticizing Amare on the national broadcast, Amare picked up a cheap foul seconds later, forcing him to the bench. it was a theme of the evening: a misguided play borne of good intentions leading to frustration. The Knicks wanted this one badly, but there were a few too many "effort" plays that weren't smart plays, be they double teams, attempted steals, or overaggressive fouls that led to critical points for the Spurs.
With that said, the team responded admirably to Amare's early foul trouble with a show of toughness and hustle on both ends of the floor thanks to Turiaf and Toney Douglas. TD, in particular, had his best showing in a while, stepping into passing lanes, getting deflections and steals, and looking as strong as he ever has since his shoulders started betraying him. (TD's 31 minutes in the game were only his second 30+ minute outing since early November).
Unfortunately, after Douglas and the second unit kept the Knicks even with the Spurs, things started getting away with the return of the starters in the second quarter. The Spurs built a nine point lead at the half and got it up to as much as 13 points in the 3rd quarter as their defense suffocated the Knicks. Again, to the Knicks' credit they didn't give up, hitting the offensive boards hard and clamping down on defense in the last half of the 3rd quarter, limiting the Spurs to 6 points in the last 6 minutes of the quarter and taking a 71-59 lead down to 77-71.
The final quarter was more of the same grinding give and take, with a boatload of physical play inside. In the end, despite the Knicks' headiest efforts and several opportunities to get the lead down below four, Duncan, Blair and Parker were too much. The final daggers were two critical defensive mistakes that came on errant double teams (Amare doubling Blair, Douglas doubling Duncan) that enabled the Spurs to get big baskets from Duncan and Parker and establish separation at the end.
Other bullets:
* The Knicks got away with their share of hacking inside, but they were clearly frustrated with the contact allowed on drives and on rebounds; even when they came away with defensive rebounds, Blair in particular constantly swatted at balls, generating turnovers or near turnovers and lots of chirping from everyone from Felton to Turiaf to Amare. Miraculously, Amare avoided his 13th technical, thanks to the rare accommodating officials who seemed content to produce a few stern warnings, but nothing more.
* Amare was the biggest casualty of the physical play: he ended up with a season high 8 offensive rebounds, a fair number coming from his own misses in traffic where the Spurs blanketed him every time he entered the lane. The biggest slippage in his game recently -- coming from defenses getting more physical, and perhaps the bumps and bruises taking their toll -- is in the mid-range area between the elbow and rim where Amare used to explode with a runner or floater when defenses collapsed or played up tightly to prevent the elbow jumper. He seems a step slower lately when making his move and more prone to having the ball stripped or getting his shot blocked. Apart from the game at MSG against the Suns, Amare has missed 21 of his last 30 shots on shots taken from inside of 10 feet in his last five games, based on numbers from Hoopdata.
It was an extremely rough night all the way around for Amare -- taking 25 shots to get 18 points, getting 5 shots blocked, and earning only 2 FTs.
* Ray Felton continued his brutal spell of shooting with only 2 of 10 shooting in the first half. He recovered somewhat by shooting 6 of 11 in the second, and I'll credit him for not allowing the shooting woes to affect the way he attacks and directs the offense. Still 7 assists and 6 turnovers to go with 8-21 shooting doesn't quite count as a bounceback for Ray, but people will take it if it's the start of a slow climb back upward.
* The defense played by the Knicks in the second half might have been the best defense they've played all year against an elite team. Their rotations were sharp, they ran out at shooters and bothered their shots consistently, and it took an exceptional game from Tim Duncan in particular (a throwback 21 points and 16 rebounds) for the Spurs to keep the Knicks at bay. Even Amare had two high quality defensive possessions on the wing against Duncan and Parker, a genuine shock to anyone who's seen perimeter players get jumpshots off him easily in the past. The Spurs were equally stingy, denying the Knick spot up shooters any comfortable looks, and frequently deflecting skip passes to weak side cutters and shooters.
* The extra minutes for Turiaf and Douglas meant a big drop in minutes for Landry Fields. Fields was solid against Manu Ginbobli on defense and had some nice hustle plays but did little on offense. Turiaf picked up the slack nicely with 10 points and 10 rebounds, including 5 offensive rebounds. As for the other wings, Gallinari seems to be slowly getting back into form -- his shot still isn't there, but he was more successful than any other Knick at drawing fouls and getting some penetration. Chandler, who's been rumored to be the Knick most affected by the Carmelo trade rumors, had another desultory shooting game and is showing signs of regression as severe as Felton's.
Shawne Williams picked up 4 fouls so rapidly that he was hardly a factor -- his best moment was a three pointer in transition at the end of the 3rd quarter that cut the lead to six. D'Antoni generally seemed comfortable allocating minutes between his primary wings and Turiaf for most of the game.
* There was a more concerted effort to run the pick and roll in this game, but all the action was with the ball handler, typically Felton -- for the second consecutive game, the Knicks got no points off the man coming off the pick and roll, according to Synergy numbers.
All in all, a very dogged, spirited effort against one of the best teams in the league. I'm not sure there's enough energy to go around for a similar effort against the Thunder on the second night of a back to back. Like the Spurs, the Thunder surely remember being embarrassed at MSG in December, being run out of the arena when they were exhausted after 4 games in 5 days. Expect lots of running as the Thunder attempt to give the Knicks similar treatment while they're still trying to work their way out of an increasingly deep slump.
On Ronny Turiaf: Should He Be Playing More?
AP Photo
Ronny Turiaf has been one of the notable exceptions to the lineup consistency. He started the season as one of the first subs off the bench, then became a starter after missing four games due to a knee sprain -- his first six starts were as a center replacement for Mozgov when it became clear the rookie was overmatched as a starter, After another knee flareup during a loss to the Hawks in the 17th game of the season, D'Antoni made the decision to replace Turiaf with Chandler and use Amare at center for the bulk of games since in a smaller lineup.
Turiaf returned as a starter for some games after Gallinari's knee injury against the Pacers, but for the majority of his games this season, he's played with the second unit for 8 to 10 minutes in the first half and a bit less than that in the second half. For many games, he's played the expected role of an "energy guy" contributing solid minutes (mostly on defense), similar to Toney Douglas, and occasionally spelling Stoudemire when he encounters foul trouble.
A closer look at Turiaf's deployment in various lineups shows some interesting tinkering, maybe even revealing some conflicted concerns on the part of the coaching staff regarding how he is best used. The numbers are in his favor for games in which he plays over 20 minutes, whether as a starter or off the bench: in 15 games where he's played 20+ minutes, the Knicks are 10-5. The Knicks have won all five games that Turiaf has played 30 or more minutes.
Early in the season, Turiaf was considered one of the most important players on the team as a glue guy and defensive quarterback of sorts on the floor , and he's always been one of the most demonstrative and emotional players for the Knicks. He's a particularly good post defender (ranked 24th in the league according to Synergy) and is 33rd in the league in defending isolations. These numbers stand out on a team of mostly mediocre to bad defenders. Basketballvalue.com has him second only to Landry Fields in terms of plus/minus on the team. He's a part of the most effective Knick unit among five man units that have played at least 70 minutes together.
Yet his minutes have fluctuated oddly, even taking into account his frequent injuries. He averaged only 12 minutes a game in December after averaging 22 minutes a game in the first month of the season. He's played more minutes since Gallinari was injured, but D'Antoni's see-sawing between small and big lineups in recent games -- especially with the emergence of Shawne Williams and Bill Walker -- resulted in peculiarities like Turiaf logging 13 minutes against the Suns and 7 minutes against the Lakers, followed by 38 minutes against the Blazers.
So why isn't Turiaf playing more, and even being used more consistently as a starter, given the success of the team? Here are some possible reasons:
* Preference For Amare at Center and Small Lineups: This is the explanation most commonly given by the coaching staff -- that the team is more effective when Amare plays center surrounded by four shooters. It's hard to argue with the logic here given that this is the seeming essence of D'Antoni's system: a standout pick and roll tandem (Felton-Amare) surrounded by strong spot-up shooters. Turiaf has some underrated skills on the offensive end (more on that later), but outside shooting isn't one of them -- he's taken only 13 shots outside of 10 feet all season. Defenses can play off of him and have Turiaf's man help on Amare, and at times the offense does bog down when Turiaf has the ball.
* Foul Trouble: Turiaf does have a tendency to commit fouls, given his sometimes grabby and gambling tendencies on defense, and the way he goes for shot blocks when a perimeter player has turned the corner on him. His fouls/40 minutes don't stand out among the league at large (60th among all players), but when you remove the big stiff foul-machines plying their trade on various NBA benches - the Seraphins, Scalabrines, Petros and Gadzurics - and hone in on players with at least 15 minutes per game who've played 20+ games, Turiaf is sixth in the league in fouls/40 minutes, behind only Derrick Favors, DeMarcus Cousins, Shaq, Amir Johnson, and Zydrunas Ilgauskas.
* Periodic Preference for Even Smaller Lineups: The emergence of Shawne Williams has enabled D'Antoni to play some interesting small-ball units where Williams plays center. He's far from great at defending, and as an offensive player he has his limits, but he's had such a hot streak of shooting that it's emboldened the coaches to roll the dice and almost dare defenses to match the Knicks' offense. Sometimes it works (the game at Phoenix was effectively ended with two Williams daggers), sometimes it sort of does (against Orlando, where the Knicks stayed in the game even though they couldn't get a stop), and sometimes it just gets ugly. But more minutes for Williams has meant less minutes for Turiaf in a few notable games.
* Injuries: This has been brought up a couple of times already - Turiaf has a tough time staying healthy. This is an issue that is more out of the coaches' control, though one wonders whether his injury track record makes the coaches more careful with how they allocate minutes. While it seems unlikely the coaches would actually hesitate to play one of their better players for fear of breaking him, given the way they play everyone else 30+ minutes without a second thought (even poor Toney Douglas with zero good shoulders), there's certainly a fear lurking in the back of some people's minds (like mine) that it may be too much to ask of Turiaf to assume too many games with large workloads.
Despite all this, assuming Ronny really is in better health these days, I agree with Kelly Dwyer that he should be playing more, for the following reasons:
* Offense Wouldn't Be Hurt That Much, and Might Improve In Some Areas: Of the 15 games where Turiaf played more than 20 minutes, the Knicks's offensive efficiency was below average in only five of them, in terms of points per 100 possessions, and three of those games were at the start of the season, with Mozgov still getting significant minutes. What the Knicks lose in terms of perimeter shooting, they would gain by having a very good screener, a willing passer of the ball, and someone who is very good off the ball: Synergy has Turiaf 1st in the league in points per possession(PPP) as the Pick and Roll man, and 29th in the league in PPP from cuts off the ball. The pick and roll attack has floundered significantly in recent games, and having Turiaf involved more to diversify the attack could reap significant benefits.
* Defense Would Stabilize/Improve: Turiaf is a defensive player, and he has played a big part in winning games for the Knicks by shutting down players like Blatche and Aldridge in the fourth quarters of tightly contested games. His communication on defense helps his teammates maintain focus, and he also takes a load off Amare, whose interior defense is already suspect and turns dire when he encounters any sort of foul trouble. (Also, Turiaf at center defensively allows Amare to roam for weakside blocks more effectively). Ronny's record is more mixed when he has to go out on perimeter shooters with some quickness, but even there he's not notably worse than his teammates.
* Wing Players Might Benefit From Expanded Rotation: As well as the small ball lineups have done in producing one of the league's best offenses, there's a sense that diminishing returns are kicking in (the Knicks have been very below average on offense in 3 of the last six games), and players like Wilson Chandler look especially fatigued late in games these days. Gallinari is still recovering from his knee sprain and may take a while to get fully back to form. Making Turiaf part of an expanded rotation could yield added benefits in keeping the wings (whose minutes would be reduced slightly, and who wouldn't always be defending bigger players) a bit fresher.
There are clearly trade-offs, and I sense that the coaches remain conflicted on the offense/defense trade-off when it comes to Turiaf. It's been fascinating to observe actually, given how much D'Antoni likes to settle into a rotation by this point of the season. The Knicks are going through a very bad stretch currently, one that's similar to their six game losing streak in November. That dry spell was triggered by Turiaf's absence to a large extent. He's here now, he's healthy, and I hope he gets the chance to play a bigger role in turning things around.
Note: I wrote most of this post before the news came out that Turiaf would be starting tonight's game in place of Wilson Chandler (though I had a hint that Turiaf would return to the starting lineup). It's interesting that Chandler is coming off the bench instead of Gallinari, as Seth points out, but ultimately, I think this is a good move.
Knicks 128 Spurs 115: Offense! Offense!
Getty Images
Now with that said, this win for the Knicks feels great, but I wasn't sure at first blush whether it was really better than, say, the win at home over the Thunder or the grind-out Christmas day victory over the Bulls. But this win deserves a special place in this season's early milestones because the team responded to adversity (the loss of Gallinari) with an extremely spirited effort, and every single player had meaningful contributions. Yes, the defense was far from optimal, but there was a focus and intensity on both ends of the floor that allowed the team to keep the pressure on the Spurs and eventually force the Spurs to send their starters to the bench early.
Game notes:
* For all the ridiculous offense in the game featuring two of the top five three point shooting teams in the league, both teams did a very good job of chasing the shooters off the 3 point line or challenging shots -- the Spurs only made 5 of 17 3 pointers, while the Knicks shot 8 of 27. What was entertaining...or amusing...or appalling (depending on your proclivities) was how much space both teams were yielding underneath the 3 point line. The first quarter was essentially a layup line for the Spurs, while the Knicks took advantage of the Spurs going under seemingly every screen to knock down one mid range jumper after the other. Take a look at the Knicks' shot chart for the game:
Lot of Xs (missed shots) outside the 3 point line, but a lot of nice dark circles around the elbows and the right wing. The best part of this in the context of the game action is the shots generally came in rhythm -- the Knicks took what the Spurs gave them and mostly (with the exception of one or two minor stretches) didn't revert to passing around the periphery of the 3 point line until they could force a contested long 3.
* A lot of those made 15 to 20 foot jumpers came from Stoudemire and Felton, thanks to Amare's jumpers falling early, and the pick and roll regaining a prominence in the offense that had been missing against tougher defensive units like the Pacers, Magic and Heat in recent games. Early on, there wasn't too much pick and roll activity, but over the course of the game, the Spurs almost dared Felton to beat them as he ran more of them. On paper, this was the right thing to do, given Felton's shooting over the last ten games (40 percent overall, and 15 of 51 on 3 pointers) -- but unlike the Knicks' recent opponents who threw Felton's rhythm off with traps and hard hedges, the Spurs focused heavily on Amare and gave Ray a *lot* of room to shoot. Felton obliged with 28 points on 17 shots, underlined by a marvelous 9 point fourth quarter that put the game away.
Synergy numbers for the Knicks this season have their points per possession for the ball handler keeping the ball on the pick and roll at 0.82 PPP -- against the Spurs, the productivity was much better (1.05 PPP), and made up 18% of plays in last night's game (vs 12% on average for the season). Spot ups were also a higher percentage of the Knick offense (27% last night vs 22% on average this season), and again the Knicks' productivity was impressively above their season average.
* The best part of the Knicks' greater success with the pick and roll and spot up plays was a lesser need for isolations and post ups, which made up only 15 percent of plays against the Spurs. With the decreased emphasis on force-feeding Amare, turnovers were reduced, and the Knicks had only 6 turnovers vs the Spurs' 16. The turnover advantage and the resulting point discrepancy (24 points off Spurs TOs vs only 7 for the Spurs off Knick TOs) was one of the biggest keys to the victory. (The fact that the Spurs had the lowest turnover rate in the league coming into the game, according to Hoopdata, makes this even more impressive).
* Another big key to the victory was the play of the bench, which turned in significant, productive minutes, particularly in the first half, that allowed the starters to rest. Fields was the only starter to log notable minutes with the second unit (and thus approach a 40 minute game) -- no other starter got past 38 minutes. Some of this was helped by Popovich's own management of minutes for Duncan and Parker, but Knick bench production has been spotty all season and bench players are often on a short leash - it was good to see even Bill Walker play nearly nine minutes in the second. The bench also made solid contributions on the boards, helping the team avoid the poor rebounding performances of the past games - though when both teams shoot 57 percent, there aren't too many rebounds to get.
* Toney Douglas and Shawne Williams had erratic shooting performances (at this point, most teams have figured out that Shawne's effectiveness is drastically reduced if he has to put the ball on the floor), but they still played major roles, especially TD on defense. Douglas's shoulder looks really painful, though -- he was being run through lots of wince-inducing high screens by the Spurs, and at one point, he pushed his man (and got the foul) just to create space and avoid another crunch on his shoulder. Still, his ball pressure forced some big turnovers and at least provided some token defensive pressure in a game without much of it.
* I continue to deliver mea culpas on Wilson Chandler, whose shot selection I hardly question any more (one or two of those straight-on 28 footers notwithstanding). Apart from the anomalous poor performance against the Pacers, Wilson has taken advantage of teams focusing on Amare and Felton to find lanes and drive effectively to the basket. When he shoots 3s, he shoots them with more confidence than I can ever recall (especially from the corners). HIs three best moments: 1) a swooping drive where he appeared to lose the ball momentarily before taking it strong for a highlight layup in the first quarter 2) a two man fastbreak where he delivered a perfect assist to Fields after a steal with Ginobli shading him for the drive 3) a ceiling-scraping runner over Duncan that was very well defended and yet Chandler managed to arc it over his outstretched arm. Chandler played the 3, 4 and 5 last night and never seemed rattled or uncomfortable.
* I worried about Fields' extremely lost performance the last few games, but he outplayed the Spurs' Neal in a battle of heady rookies and earned every one of his 39 minutes. Apart from the offensive rebound highlights, he had 3 steals, including two where he seemed to read the Spurs' play perfectly as it was happening a la Shane Battier. Apart from a few shaky moments defending Ginobli, this was as important a bounce-back game for him as it was for Felton.
* The announcers made a lot of fuss over Popovich's early removal of the starters when the margin was still manageable, which eerily mirrored a similar refusal by Tom Thibodeau early in the season to put his starters back against the Knicks in the fourth quarter when the Bulls were rallying from a big deficit. The Bulls game, though, was a November game, and you could fairly call the Knicks' 3 point shooting in that game flukish. Last night's effort against the Spurs felt more balanced and decisive, the product of a more cohesive team performance against an elite team.
* Clyde Frazier told Mike Breen the other day against the Pacers that one of his New Year's resolutions was to "tone down" his wardrobe. I think we can all agree that he was sharing one hell of a sly joke with us all, unless he was referring to the heavier use of browns and blacks in this first two suits. Only Clyde could make a spectrum of so-called subtler colors in his wardrobe scream with a certain wild style, that's for sure.
* On the Spurs' side of things, the excellent 48 minutes of Hell provides their own perspective , and one of my faves on twitter @courtside, a huge Spurs fan, has a tumblr with Pop's postgame press conference that is must viewing (even if you've read the game stories). NBA Playbook breaks down the Knick's first quick hitting play that set the tone for a night of offense. And at Posting and Toasting, Gian gives another masterclass on how the Knicks broke down the Spurs' defense, particularly the odd zone that got thrown up for a few possessions.
