Bandwagon Knick

Thoughts On Another Slow Start, On Fractured Narratives and False Equivalencies

BK — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 19:50:33 GMT

A slow start is nothing new, either for the Knicks or for Mike D'Antoni (dating back to some of his best Phoenix Suns teams). In a shortened season, however, with the most hyped collection of talent the Knicks have had in many years and the championship aspirations dialed up several notches, losing 10 of your first 16 games against the easiest schedule in the league (according to John Hollinger) is cause for serious alarm.

The bad record on its own is not a reason to panic -- even in a shorter season, it's still early, and many teams are struggling with conditioning, injuries, and erratic play brought about by the compressed schedule. On top of that, the Knicks are in the Eastern Conference, where 9 of 15 teams are under .500.

But this team wasn't built to stagger toward a seventh or eighth seed. Having finally added a third major piece after the lockout in Tyson Chandler to anchor a more robust defense, some had hopes these Knicks could be one of the three or four best teams in the East, and even challenge Chicago and Miami. I never had that level of enthusiasm personally, but I did think the team could earn a fifth or sixth seed and have a good chance to make it to the second round of the playoffs.

What's most concerning to Knick fans is how little confidence the team inspires to date, even against the lesser teams in the league. Every game is a chore, and even the expected blowouts (on paper) of teams like the Kings and Pistons have a flukish feel when you find out they involved things like 14 point quarters from Mike Bibby or 4 of 8 three point shooting from Josh Harrellson. The defensive improvement is encouraging, but the labored, unsightly offense is the stuff of nightmares.

Of course, the narratives surrounding the team and its accompanying hype have produced so much analysis (and overanalysis) that I hardly need to review the major issues -- I stayed stuck on twitter for hours yesterday reading one tweet after another (and clicking on one link after another) lambasting the isolation-heavy Knick offense, the Knick management that gave up too much in the Trade, the tragic character flaws of Carmelo Anthony, the aging uninsurable knees of Amare Stoudemire, the tissue-paper thin supporting cast, and on and on. I noted wryly on twitter that Knick stories and schadenfreude were circulating so furiously and repeatedly in the last few days that Mike D'Antoni only wished his offense could run with a similar sense of perpetual motion.

There have been many terrific analyses written as well: apart from the usual excellent work from leading Knick blogs and Howard Beck with the NY Times and Alan Hahn at MSG, Zach Lowe (Offense At Fault For Knick Struggles), Bradford Doolittle (How to Fix The Knicks), and Matt Moore (Being Set Up For Success vs Failure) have all broken down the various issues in a thoughtful manner. I've looked at lots of numbers myself and re-watched games from last year (before and after the Anthony trade) to contrast the execution of those teams with the execution of the current Knicks.

Here are some of my thoughts, focused on offense, since that's where the team is most sickly at present:

* The Point Forward Experiment Has Been Slow Going: Lowe has made this point most forcefully, that putting the ball in Carmelo's hands and making him the facilitator has put him in problematic and somewhat unnatural position. Anthony is a capable passer, but as with any shoot-first player, his passes tend to come after probing the defense for a scoring opportunity for himself. His passes overwhelmingly go to spot up shooters rather than cutters (a tendency that dates back to his Denver days), though to his credit, he's shown some facility for hitting cutters such as Fields and Chandler in recent games.

Some folks conflate Melo's passing issues with his isolation-heavy, volume shooting tendencies and make the usual declarations about personal character, but I don't see things quite that dimly. He *is* a scorer that puts a lot of methodical effort into the process of gaining an advantage over his opponent, and the ball tends to stick whether he's in point forward mode or straight isolation-hero mode (usually at the end of games). His style -- whether seeking the pass, taking the jumper, or powering to the rim -- tends to be deliberate, and giving him the ball for large stretches of the game skews the offense. His recent wrist and ankle injuries have put a huge spotlight on his worst tendencies, because he's tried too hard to shoot himself out of his slump (as Mike D'Antoni put it simply when pressed by the media about Melo's issues, "this all started when Melo hurt his wrist").

D'Antoni addressed the isolation tendencies of his two big scorers last season by placing them on opposite wings and having the PG (either Billups or Douglas) make reads after a series of soft screens and movement on both sides of the floor. (This worked best when a healthy Billups was at the point). This year, with the attack starting with either Anthony, the inexperienced Shumpert, or struggling Douglas, and with Chandler providing a space-eating presence around the elbow and post that limits Stoudemire's pick and roll and penetration options, the offense flows less smoothly and distributes the ball less evenly. The atrocious shooting by the perimeter players so far only makes things worse.

It's possible to imagine Anthony improving over time as a facilitator, even when Baron Davis returns. By necessity, he will continue to dominate the ball in being a point forward and scorer in the short term, as he has been the only reliable perimeter scoring option for most games so far and his turnover rate is (relatively) good for someone who handles the ball so much. But the offense will improve dramatically with a real point guard that can read defenses, move the ball more capably, make the offense less predictable, and make Anthony another option rather than an exclusive option.

* More Usage, More Turnovers, Less Sharing, Less Flow: Many have complained about Anthony's ball dominating tendencies limiting Stoudemire's opportunities, and there's truth to that. But Amare is also missing shots he made routinely last season. Early in the season, he drifted too much and took many bad midrange jumpers, but even in recent games he doesn't attack the rim or shoot his elbow jumpers with the same efficiency that was routine last year and in Phoenix. (If Knick fans want to cry, they should watch his 41 point performance against the Sixers last February and contrast that Amare with the one that struggles to match up with centers like Marcin Gortat).

Perhaps it's the beginning of a career decline for Stoudemire, but someone who works as hard as he does to stay in top physical shape should still be capable of making open 15 footers against weaker teams. Perhaps some of it is the presence of Tyson Chandler and the more limited pick and roll opportunities with no real point guard running the offense. I'm less persuaded by the theory that Amare's increased time at power forward means he has quicker defenders on him - in that 41 point game mentioned earlier, he played significant minutes with Timofey Mozgov at center and had Elton Brand, Thaddeus Young, and even Andre Igoudala on him at various points, all of whom he handled with ease.

There's definitely a major skew in the possessions used by Amare and Carmelo this season compared to last season after the trade. Here's a game by game breakdown of the relative possession usage (USG) of Stoudemire vs Anthony, along with their turnover rates from game to game:

2011-12	Stoudemire (USG)	TO Rate	Anthony (USG)	TO Rate

BOS	19.6	7.3	41.9	17.5
GSW	30.7	17.9	26.7	5.6
LAL	38.8	16.9	33.3	21.4
SAC	DNP	DNP	31.6	0
TOR	DNP	DNP	45.1	8
CHA	24.8	0	43.2	13.1
WAS	32.4	17.5	50.5	10.2
DET	38.1	9.7	26.6	6.3
CHA	41	3.2	38.4	20.2
PHI	25.5	10.5	43.4	15.4
MEM	30.7	18.6	26.5	8
OKC	35.8	20.8	DNP	DNP
ORL	23.4	20.2	52.1	12.8
PHO	41.7	18.5	31.9	4
MIL	25.8	25.3	47.9	11.2
DEN	13	27.1	34	15.5

It's common for two ball dominant stars on teams to have usage numbers in the high 20s to 30s, such as Wade and James on the Heat, or Westbrook and Durant on the Thunder. Last season, Anthony and Stoudemire had numbers in that range for most games, with one star occasionally dominating in a particular game because of a hot hand. What this table shows is that there are many more instances where Anthony dominates usage to insane, Kobe-like levels. Additionally, Stoudemire -- already turnover prone -- continues to have problems even with more limited usage.

Once again, a strong point guard can even out these disparities between the two players, and perhaps get Stoudemire more efficient opportunities. Even Anthony would probably admit that dominating possessions as much as he has this season has had an adverse impact on his game.

* Perimeter Players Who Can Shoot, Raise Your Hand: The performance of the Knick role players this season might have been my biggest reservation around the Tyson Chandler acquisition - a roster already weakened by the Anthony trade would lose an experienced point guard and be made even more lopsided. And given the struggles of Fields and Douglas in games down the stretch last season, it might have been too much to expect them to rebound immediately with Douglas' recovery from shoulder surgery, yet another new roster to gel with, and no training camp.

Still, the shooting numbers are shockingly bad, especially for Douglas. Fans have long complained about his issues as a playmaker, but his shooting alone was the difference in many games last season between an inconsistent, top-heavy team and a team that could spread the ball around and put opponents on their heels with three point shooting and slashing drives to the basket. The Knicks were able to win 4 of 6 games even after Billups' post-trade injury with Douglas at point guard -- now Douglas looks lost even as a reserve in limited minutes and loses playing time to Bibby, the ultimate insult.

	2010-11 TS%	2011-12 TS%	2010-11 3PT%	2011-12 3PT %

Toney Douglas	53%	40%	37%	24%
Bill Walker	58%	58%	39%	35%
Landry Fields	60%	51%	39%	20%

Douglas and Fields' shooting have reached embarrassing levels from outside the arc -- if Anthony feels taking another pull-up jumper is a superior option to passing to a teammate who has an 80 percent chance of missing, can you blame him? True Shooting Percentage takes into account two and three point field goals as well as free throws, and here Fields fares better because he's improved his ability to draw fouls (even as his FT percentage has dipped). Bill Walker's numbers have stayed steady thanks to a breakout performance against Denver, though overall it's hard to escape the feeling that the amount of playing time he receives is an indicator of how shallow the bench is.

The Knicks are fishing around for roster reinforcements with their room exception, but they would be greatly helped by Douglas regaining a semblance of his form. He may always be a streaky shooter, but his wavering confidence affects his overall play and plays a major part in the bench units giving up points, putting an additional burden on the starters.

* Amare Heading Toward "Distinguished" Company: To highlight how bad things have been this season for Stoudemire, I looked up how many players had his level of possession usage, his turnover rate and shot as poorly he is currently shooting. Courtesy of basketball-reference.com, there have been 13 players in the last decade with a usage of at least 25 and a turnover rate of 14 per 100 plays (minimum 60 games and 30 minutes/game).

The best shooters on this list were centers like Dwight Howard (two seasons), Yao Ming (three seasons), Amare (2006-07) and...hold your breath, Eddy Curry (06-07) -- big men with good FG percentages in the high 50s but slightly turnover prone. The worst shooters on the list: Paul Pierce (03-04), Stephen Jackson (10-11), Antoine Walker (04-05) and Glenn Robinson (02-03) -- all perimeter players who chucked to the tune of 40 to 43 percent shooting. For the Knicks to start winning, needless to say, Amare needs to be more like his old self and less like a wing player with dubious shot selection, which is the company he keeps now.

* Carmelo Can Reform...Or Maybe He Can't: Perhaps you think I've been too nice to Carmelo Anthony and you're a more skeptical or pessimistic type. Two articles that will reinforce your anxiety: Jeremy Wagner (who runs the best Nuggets blog in Roundball Mining Company) on the frustrations of Carmelo, and even more fascinating, an older Kevin Arnovitz piece on The Killer Plays the Nuggets Won't Run, written during the Nuggets-Jazz playoff series in 2010. This is a highly insightful look into the style of basketball Anthony has played with Denver in past years, and a window into the challenge of getting him to adapt to a more flowing offense with a heavier pick and roll emphasis. Absolutely a must-read.

Again, I should emphasize I'm a cautious optimist, and my biggest concerns are more with the sub-par performance of Anthony's teammates. But Arnovitz's analysis is another piece in the argument of why a point forward role and mega-high usage for Anthony poses difficulties for the kind of offense the Knicks want to run.

* Off With His Head!: The rough start means a lot of wailing about the coach and calls for his head, who arguably fans have never cared for that much. I think it's too early, and more time is warranted -- my feelings are roughly summarized by Ken Berger's piece for CBS Sports, even if I might have issues with some of the more dramatic implications of the article. The most time D'Antoni has had with a semi-stable, talented roster has been 55 games (the pre-trade Knicks last season), and arguably 10-12 of those games were impacted by trade speculation. It appears some disagree, and there's enough evidence to indict the coach. I'll tackle one particular instance of this thinking in the next section.

False Equivalence and Mike D'Antoni

In response to the aforementioned Berger piece, Tom Ziller of SB Nation (one of the best NBA writers and a superb polemicist, especially during the recent lockout) wrote a rebuttal countering the line of thinking that Anthony is a franchise destroyer and D'Antoni should be absolved of all blame for the Knicks' current troubles. He makes the argument that there's evidence -- based on George Karl and D'Antoni's experience in coaching similar rosters due to the nature of the trade -- that Karl is vastly superior to D'Antoni, and by implication, the latter has underachieved as a coach.

In essence, the extreme nature of the trade -- involving roster swaps of major portions of each team -- allowed for a kind of controlled experiment where we got to see how each coach did with each other's pieces. The money quote:

"We're seeing that D'Antoni coached the Knicks to be completely average with Stoudemire and the cast-offs, and completely average with Stoudemire and 'Melo. We're seeing that George Karl coached the Nuggets to be well above-average with 'Melo, Billups and the rest of the old Nuggets core, and well above-average with the Knicks' cast-offs and pieces of the old Nuggets core."

I love the impulse that animated Ziller's piece, because there are indeed columnists that tend to moralize heavily and engage in too much star scapegoating. However, I have a lot of problems with his reasoning on how to judge D'Antoni (which I first encountered when it was proposed by the blog Denver Stiffs last spring) for the following reasons:

* Before the trade, as Ziller points out, Karl was 33-25 with a Nuggets team that returned nine players from the previous season, a playoff team with a veteran core. D'Antoni was 28-27 with a team that combined young players (whose previous experience had been with losing teams clogged with salary-cap clearing veterans) with free agents (Felton, Stoudemire, Turiaf, Randolph) meant to give a new identity to the team. The Knicks reached a high water mark of 22-15 in January before struggling with a road trip, expected inconsistencies in play with a young roster, and trade speculation (which also, by some reports, impacted the Nuggets in their final ten or so games). Ziller and I will differ here, but I won't beat up a coach because he did less with a new team than Karl did with the core of a 50 win playoff team the previous season.

* After the trade, the Nuggets soared while the Knicks struggled with wildly inconsistent play. The reasons for the Nuggets' rise have been documented extensively, most persuasively by Jeremy Wagner on his blog, and by Tom Haberstroh at ESPN. It would be nice to believe that it was all Karl coaching the Knicks the way D'Antoni never did and spurring them to new heights, but the previous articles point out that the post-trade Nuggets were a deep, uniquely motivated group, helped greatly by ridding themselves of two of their poorest defenders (Billups and Anthony) and unleashing Ty Lawson as a starter, which resulted in the best month of his career to date right after the trade.

What's less mentioned is how well the Knicks started after the trade (at least as an offensive force), beating Milwaukee and Miami (at Miami), and nearly defeating Orlando on the road before losing Billups to a deep thigh bruise. The Knicks continued their momentum with Douglas at PG, winning 4 of 6 games, then went into a tailspin in losing 8 of 9 games with a drastically diminished Billups and a worn-out Stoudemire flailing by the end of a month where the team played 18 games with very few practices (Denver, in contrast, played 13 games in March). There were some bad losses to poor teams and a painful process of adjustment, but the same point-guard issues bedeviling the current team were an issue with Billups' injury. I have written about this stretch extensively, and it doesn't compare at all to Karl having success with a different Nugget group surrounding Billups and Anthony at the start of the season.

The Knicks did break their losing spell and won seven in a row to clinch the sixth seed in the East, before losing their final two meaningless games in which they rested stars for the playoffs.

* D'Antoni is being asked to put square pegs in round holes -- that's on the front office. But Karl certainly found success doing the same -- he won plenty of games with 'Melo and Allen Iverson playing together. The failure to adapt and develop a workable solution is on D'Antoni.

The Iverson trade to Denver in December of 2006 is an interesting example to bring up. The Nuggets went 21-27 after trading for Iverson before rallying to win their 10 of their final 11 games to surge into the playoffs. OK, I cheated there -- Anthony missed the first 14 games of Iverson's tenure because of a suspension from a certain fight familiar to Knick fans -- but when he returned to join Iverson, the Nuggets lost 14 of their next 23 games. Sensing a pattern here? Two ball dominant superstars can work together, and it certainly is D'Antoni's responsibility to make it happen, but adjusting takes time.

* Here is the thing: none of this is meant to diminish what George Karl has done with his post-trade Nuggets, which is impressive. If people want to say he's a better coach than D'Antoni, that's fine. If people want to argue that D'Antoni doesn't have the kind of "coach-as-hero" adaptability that allows coaches like Scott Skiles to make a team with spare parts like the Bucks a competent team, or Nate McMillan to recover from fatal injuries to Roy and Oden to make the Blazers a sleek winner (Ziller didn't make these points, but they float out there), there are interesting discussions to be had along these lines. (I have linked in the past to a superb post by Tom on exactly how hard it is to judge coaching.)

But D'Antoni is certainly within his rights to wish for some time in a lockout shortened season, a competent point guard, and some balance in his roster to produce a winner. The evidence produced by his coaching last season and this season (as well as last year's first round playoff sweep) is that...his teams struggle with thin rosters with bad or injured point guards who've had little time to play together. When he does have healthy pieces, he's shown results in limited stretches; he's also been adaptable in a way his detractors haven't credited him enough for.

He doesn't make excuses - when he does cite injuries and roster issues, it is always with the qualification that he understands the pressure on him and how he is expected to produce. If we're going to blame the coach for anything, we might wonder about some draft or roster decisions, but these are front office issues.

If this is indeed the coach's final week, as some are claiming it will be, it may produce short term results, with Mike Woodson standing at the sideline ready to take over. But any firing this early will be an act of ridiculous impatience characteristic of previous dysfunctional Knick regimes. Hopefully, cooler heads will prevail.

On the Road

The Knicks have a seemingly manageable schedule this week, albeit with games all on the road, but it's hard to see them getting close to .500 without a significant improvement in the offense, which may not come until Davis returns. (Even that is a tenuous situation to place hope on). At this point, a 2-2 week on the road will be a sign of progress. This is such a crazy NBA season, though, that I have no clue what to expect in the next four games.

NBA Draft Thoughts: 2011 Edition

BK — Fri, 24 Jun 2011 14:39:00 GMT

The Knicks went into last night's NBA draft with a middling first round pick in a draft badly weakened by fears of the looming lockout, with the hope that the pick could fetch a gem, given the extreme difficulty of reading which players warranted lottery selections below the consensus top two. They ended up with Georgia Tech's Iman Shumpert in the first round and Kentucky's Josh Harrelson in the second round (based on a pick acquired from New Orleans at 45) -- an interesting if less than exhilarating haul that meets some needs and begins the necessary off-season process of adding functional bodies to a thin roster.

I didn't care much for the Shumpert pick at first when it was first announced last night, and the Knick fans in attendance in Newark looked deflated as well, given the availability of Florida State's Chris Singleton, whose stock as the draft's best perimeter defender had been hyped for weeks. I've had the opportunity to watch both Georgia Tech and Florida State play a number of ACC and NCAA games the last few years, and Singleton has always looked more like a game changing defender and powerful transition player, whereas Shumpert looked solid but always seemed a bit disappointing, being offensively challenged and questionable as a decision maker in Paul Hewitt's system.

Going past my superficial eye test though, the similarities between Shumpert and Singleton are pretty striking. Both played in the ACC against quality opposition and developed reputations as athletic, high quality defenders while disappointing offensively. Both played for bruising defensive teams, but in systems that could charitably be described as uncreative offensively, providing a glimmer of hope that they could flourish with better coaching and in a more open offense. Both disappointed a bit their first two years, then blossomed in their junior seasons. One possible notable difference between the two is that Singleton seems to have embraced his role as a defense-first player at the next level, whereas it's less clear with Shumpert (based on the accounts I've read) what he believes he can do as a pro.

Reading between the lines of the early post-draft quotes coming from Walsh and Grunfeld, it seems that Kawhi Leonard was the freakish athlete the Knicks had the greatest hope would drop down to 17, and when he went off the board, the brain trust preferred Shumpert to Singleton. If this is true, I'll put on my "glass is half-full" hat and say that it's encouraging that the Knicks prioritized a hyper-athletic defender with their top pick. The Knicks have plenty of offense, and there were few to no difference making frontline players that could shore up the Knick interior available at the Knicks' draft position. Focusing on a strong perimeter defender was the right way to go.

As far as choosing Shumpert over Singleton, there are two or three possible justifications. One is that Shumpert is more capable of being a two-way player, and that his offense isn't as bad as it looked in college -- some early scouting reports on ESPN also indicated that he's more effective in a faster paced offense. He doesn't strike me as a natural playmaker, though, and his college assist and turnover numbers don't jump out. I also cringed at the quotes from the workouts claming "his shot isn't broken", based on hot shooting during workouts. (Uncomfortable flashback 1: I have thoughts of Rajon Rondo, broken shot and all, matching Kevin Durant jumpshot for jumpshot in the nationally televised game of HORSE at NBA All-Star Weekend last season, then going back to showing nothing from the perimeter in actual games).

But there's an argument to be made that within Mike D'Antoni's offense, a big guard that's used to handling the ball is more useful than a purely defensive, low usage wing.

A second possible reason (and the one offered in most post-draft recaps) is that the Knicks had a greater need (and more playing time) for a two guard relative to a tweener wing that would have played behind Carmelo Anthony, and they preferred someone who could defend opposing point guards. (Uncomfortable flashback number 2: the last time I can vividly remember the Knicks "filling a need" at the two guard, they traded for Larry Hughes). Joking and uncomfortable flashbacks aside, this assessment of need is reasonable. The Eastern Conference playoff teams that have given the Knicks fits generally have a hyper-quick guard or wing beyond the ability of Billups, Fields or Douglas (especially with a torn labrum) to defend. Shumpert has the body and athleticism to defend the likes of Rose, Wade, Teague, Nelson and Rondo, and he may be versatile enough to cover wings like Joe Johnson and Paul Pierce in a pinch. Singleton can do the same (though he seems more suited to guarding the 2, 3 and 4 than opposing point guards).

A third possible reason is that Shumpert may have been a painfully erratic player at Georgia Tech, but he didn't face too many questions about his motivation or motor during games, something that occasionally came up with Singleton, who would disappear for long streches in some games. This is pretty subjective stuff, and in fairness to Singleton, "disappearing" may have been a function of his teammates and offense as much as his own desire -- Shumpert on the other hand generally controlled the ball for his team. But the fact that Singleton fell to the middle of the first round despite the need of several teams at the higher end of the lottery for defense indicates those teams may have had the same questions.

In the end, I'm not totally convinced that Singleton wasn't the better pick, but I do think Shumpert can be very useful. There was a lot of buzz about Singleton and not much about Shumpert, but in John Hollinger's Draft Rater, Shumpert was rated 20th while Singleton was pegged at 16th. So the Knicks' selection may be debatable, but at first blush it's not an outrageous blunder nor a depressingly predictable or safe pick (such as Vucevic, if he had been available, or Montejunas). Nor is it a pick that's as superficially duplicative or redundant as some of the higher lottery picks -- I noted on twitter last night that a fun draft night game was to identify the draftees' dopplegangers on their new teams i.e. Derrick Willams-Beasley, Valuncianas-Bargnani, Tristan Thompson-JJ Hickson, Bismack Biyombo-Tyrus Thomas, and on and on. Let's just hope that Shumpert's doppleganger isn't the ghost of Larry Hughes or Renaldo Balkman.

Shumper is a pick that fills a definite need that can pay off hugely, but bears significant risk, like 90 percent of the picks in the draft this year. I don't think he'll contribute much of anything offensively and his point guard learning curve is going to be steep, but for defense alone he'll be extremely valuable -- the reports of him shutting down James Johnson and Evan Turner in college, and Jimmer Fredette in workouts are highly encouraging.

(For what it's worth, I don't think Shumpert makes Toney Douglas redundant in any way, but I don't know how bad Douglas' shoulder is, and if the rumors are to be believed, he's being shopped. If the shopping expedition brings back the likes of Ramon Sessions, I'm thrilled. If it returns Jonny Flynn, I'm not),

Final note: the Knick draft guys may not know Josh Harrelson that much more than I do, since their impressions of him seem to have been formed off his impressive tournament run with Kentucky (he was not able to make the Portsmouth Invitational due to illness). I like the Knicks having another big body, though I'm alarmed for a center entering Mike D'Antoni's system that has taken so few jumpers in college. Harrelson impressed me most in his game against North Carolina, where he held his own against Tyler Zeller and John Henson, two players that (probably) would have been in the second half of the first round had they declared this year. He seems like a good guy that will blend well with the team personality-wise if he can make the team.

There's still a gaping hole in the interior that's not likely to be filled with 50 games of Ronny Turiaf, Jerome Jordan, and Harrelson, so I'm curious to see what gets done (if anything) with free agents. For now, the Knicks are in a holding pattern along with 29 other teams as the CBA negotiations continue.

Celtics 101 Knicks 89: Season Over, Hope and Tough Questions Ahead

BK — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 12:24:00 GMT

Getty Images

In the end, when you're working with the worst starting backcourt in the playoffs, and even they have to be cast aside for Anthony Carter, Roger Mason, and Bill Walker in order to sustain one final surge in the final home playoff game, you're not working with a lot of ammunition.

That's how it ended in Game 4 on Sunday afternoon for the Knicks, who couldn't survive the loss of Chauncey Billups. the drop in form due to injury of Amare Stoudemire, and the even more severe drop in form of key complementary players. The Celtics flipped the switch and the effect was that of illuminating the stage lights within a grand old theater for another playoff run; any switches the Knicks tried to flip were the equivalent of resetting circuit breakers in a decrepit building.

The Knicks came out with much better energy in Game 4 than in the previous game, when the Celtics buried them early and fought off a series of mild runs. They also pushed the pace as successfully as they have all series, even running after Celtic made baskets, resulting in a 25 possession first quarter (a pace closer to the pace they like to operate at).

But they simply could not make shots, and their typical salvation in this series -- making up points against a struggling Celtic bench --- disappeared with the return to competence of Glen Davis, Delonte West, Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic. Paul Pierce and Ray Allen missed 14 of 18 shots in the first half, but the Celtics used their defense to make even the simplest passes in the Knick halfcourt offense difficult, and the Knicks fired up brick after brick after brick. In the second quarter, the Knicks missed 17 of 20 shots, from every possible location:

First half shooting: Toney Douglas 1-8, Amare 1-10, Shawne Williams 0-5, Landry Fields 0-3. Carmelo Anthony was the paragon of efficiency with a 5 for 13 shooting line by these awful standards. A fair amount of it was good Celtic defense, but some of Douglas' looks were wide open, and Amare missed shots he would normally make if he were closer to 100 percent.

In the third quarter, the Knicks fell behind by 23, with Douglas continuing to flounder running the team. When Anthony Carter replaced him at the 5:37 mark and the Knicks down 74-54, no one expected much -- after all, Carter put in 5 and a half uneventful minutes in the first half. But AC provided a major jolt of energy upon re-entering the game, and took advantage of the Celtics falling asleep with a large lead. He got up on Rondo, forcing him into 3 of his 5 second half turnovers, and found Carmelo twice on fastbreaks. He made 4 of 5 shots, had 4 assists and 3 rebounds. And he was a one-man help machine on defense, having a hand in virtually every one of the Celtics' six fourth quarter turnovers.

Carter's defensive disruption was also notable for the way it forced the Celtics into getting away from the way they dissected the Knicks successfully with their multiple options -- suddenly, anytime the Celtics had a mismatch on a Carter switch, they got baited into running isolations such as Pierce or Allen on Carter. They also tried pounding it into Garnett on two occasions during the Knick run and though that's generally a good option against the Knicks' soft interior, all the ISO and labored post action from the Celtics played into the Knicks' hands.

The Knicks fought back spiritedly to get the lead down to 84-80 and 88-83, and for the first time that I can remember in a while, D'Antoni did not make a single substitution in the fourth quarter -- he rode with Melo, Amare, AC, Shawne Williams and Roger Mason the whole way. Eventually, that wasn't enough: a tough luck charge on Williams in transition, along with defensive lapses from Mason (a Rondo cut in the lane with no around him) and Williams (Ray Allen left alone on the left wing for three), and the Celtics twice running a pick and pop between Rondo and Garnett (with a hobbled Amare barely providing resistance) sealed the game and series for Boston.

Game Notes:

* Amare's Effort: I did not expect Amare to play Game 4, and his sub-par form due to injury may have been the nail in the coffin for this series, but I was proud of the effort he put out there in his final game of the season. His stat line ended up ugly (5 for 20 shooting), but grabbing 12 rebounds, earning 12 FTs and continuing to attack the rim in the second half with a bad back was a great show of "no quit" until the end. He ended the season hurt and worn down, but in this short series (and keeping in mind the subjective nature of these kinds of judgments) he looked like he wanted to win more than any other Knick player out there. For him more than anyone else, I'm sorry the Knicks couldn't at least have gotten one win in the last week.

* Anatomy of An Offensive Breakdown: The Knicks had only their second 30 point quarter of the series in the third quarter last night, and it was really their first meaningful one, since the other one was the last quarter of Game 3's blowout. In a 12 minute stretch spanning the last half of the third quarter and the first half of the fourth, the Knicks scored 29 points in 25 possessions while holding the Celtics to 16 points in 25 possessions. This was probably the highlight of their series as far as combining offensive production and defensive efficiency since the first half of Game 1. For the series as a whole, the Knicks' offense was shut down:

NY Knicks	Pace	Off Efficiency	Def Efficiency

Game 1	85	100	102
Game 2	90	103	107
Game 3	94	102	120
Game 4	97	92	104

Season Average	96	111	110

Only in the final two games did the pace approximate what the Knicks are accustomed to -- but really, when you consider that the season average reflects the pre-trade Knicks' greater propensity to run -- perhaps the increased pace benefited the Celtics more than the Knicks. Or just as likely, the outstanding transition defense of the Celtics coupled with the poor guard depth of the Knicks meant scoring in transition was always going to be tough.

According to Synergy Sports, the Knicks averaged 15 transition plays/game during the regular season; the Celtics averaged 13. In this series, the Celtics upped their average slightly (14/game for the series), while the Knicks were brought down to 11 per game, with a lower efficiency in scoring on those transition opportunities in every game.

The Knicks could barely get their pick and roll going, especially once Billups was hurt, and alternated between a lot of isolations (over 20 percent of plays in each of the first three games) and spot-ups (26 percent of plays in Game 4, most of which went "clank").

The only area where the Knicks seemed to be successful if they committed to it were cuts -- in Games 1, 3 and 4, the cuts were 9-10 percent of plays and the Knicks were very efficient in scoring off of them (Carmelo in particular produced well off the cuts). This is something for the coaches to look at in the off-season when they're re-tooling the offense.

* Plus-Minus Winners and Losers: Raw plus/minus is a flawed indicator of actual contributions, especially for high minutes players, but it can tell an interesting story for role players who make their impact in a 15 to 25 minute chunks. (For example, few would doubt that the Celtic bench's bad plus minus numbers told a certain story in the first three games). On the Knicks, the plus/minus numbers are especially damning for Landry Fields (-34 in his last three games in only 51 minutes of play), Toney Douglas (-45 in 112 minutes of play, including a sad -14 in game 4) and Ronny Turiaf (-30 in only 75 minutes).

There's no point in belaboring Fields' performance in this series, but Turiaf's and Douglas' performances were far more damaging. Turiaf only played 10 and 12 minutes in the final two games and the defense cratered when his knees/other ailments started acting up. Douglas also had a recurrence of his bad shoulder, and he seemed totally out of sorts after being dominated by Rondo the last three games. When you consider that the most important players beyond the "Big 3" of Billups, Anthony and Stoudemire were Douglas and Turiaf, for them to come up short (along with injuries to two of the three stars) made it impossible for the Knicks to stay competitive.

Jeffries (-11 in 84 minutes) and Walker (+7 in 89 minutes) did their part to fill in with energetic play, along with Carter and Mason, but all I kept thinking when I saw Mason miss all of his threes in the fourth quarter last night was how I wish Douglas' shot had been on for at least one game in the series.

On the Celtics' side, each one of their four stars dominated at least one game, but the most important unheralded player was Jermaine O'Neal. Plus 54 in the last three games of the series in only 68 minutes, and according to John Schuhmann of NBA.com, Boston had its highest on-court offensive efficiency with him on the floor.

* Carmelo Anthony Broadening His Game: When Mike D'Antoni says Anthony can be a "triple-double guy" (and taking into account the usual coaching hyperbole), he means becoming a hub for the offense with his shooting, his off the ball movement, and his passing. It's been an up and down adjustment for Melo in this regard, but apart from the off the ball cuts mentioned earlier, he had two good sequences at the end of the third quarter while the Knicks were rallying -- a difficult bounce pass to Amare cutting in the lane for a layup, and a pick and roll with Amare where Melo fired a perfect cross-court pass over the screen to Williams for the three. Frankly, I'm not sure a more ideal D'Antoni pick and roll (using the screen to swing to shooters) has been run since Felton left town. It would be good to see much more of this from Melo after a full training camp next season.

* The Final Ovation: I don't consider a sweep anything to be proud of or to take silver linings from, but I did appreciate the Garden crowd applauding the players at the end of the game yesterday. It was one of those moments where I'm really grateful New York loves basketball so much and can recognize effort and what was (despite too many ups and downs for me to maintain my blood pressure) an entertaining season. I'm sure the Celtics loved sweeping the Knicks and taking the air out of the superstar hype in New York, but I also appreciated their graciousness in post-game comments -- toward the coaches, the players, and the franchise.

* The Coach -- Part I: It's knee-jerk time! (speaking of which, was I the only one who tired of Mark Jackson's endless auditioning for the coach's job throughout this series?) Actually, I have been mostly impressed by how sane a good segment of the New York fan base has been regarding the coaching beyond the usual columnists and talk radio blather designed to get the phone ringing. My position mirrors that of Bill Rhoden and Chris Sheridan, with Rhoden in particular demonstrating an unusual sensitivity to the reality of the current situation.

One thing to keep in mind. Look at the top 15 teams ranked by defensive efficiency over at Hoopdata. Every team has a player that protects the rim capably, and in the case of Miami and Philadelphia (where that's debatable), they have elite wing defenders. The Knicks have neither. Even in Phoenix when D'Antoni had a defense ranked around 13th to 15th, he had Shawn Marion and Raja Bell that guarded multiple positions well. D'Antoni has never had a strong interior defender in this three years in New York -- Turiaf is the closest, but he showed all season (and in this series) that he can't stay healthy. And his best wing defenders got traded to Denver for you-know-who.

You can see the glass as half-full (two elite offensive superstars and a veteran point guard with more moves to be made), or half-empty (an aging point injury-prone point guard and two superstars who are defensive liabilities that may not be rescued with the meager resources available in the off-season). Whoever the coach is next year, he will have quite a challenge molding a competent defensive unit out of these pieces. I do think, health permitting, that the Knicks can be a top 4 seed and a 46 to 50 win team next season with a full training camp and modestly productive pieces acquired through the draft/free agency/trades. And I seriously believe Mike D'Antoni can turn this team into a much better team, if not a championship team with the pieces they have.

(Worth reading: a fabulous post by Tom Ziller on just how mercurial the nature of coaching is when you use the playoffs as a measure of evaluation).

* The Coach - Part II: Now, I will leave with a little parting shot at the coach just so people don't accuse me of being an apologist. One of the reasons, I think, that the coach still maintains his popularity (or at least modest support) is the commitment he made to New York, and his unrelenting professionalism throughout the ordeal of the last three years. For this reason, it baffled me to see his comment about Rondo prior to yesterday's game.

In general, D'Antoni parses his words carefully even when he's being searingly direct, and he usually leavens the most pointed observations with some humor or a mild shoulder shrug (like "hey, you know I'm not totally serious, right?). According to Alan Hahn at Newsday, D'Antoni immediately qualified his comment about Rondo and the Timberwolves by saying "he's a very good basketball player, really, really good", which is typical for the coach. (These things are rarely as bad when you see the person actually speaking them, but I couldn't find video of the offending quote).

But I still thought it was out of character for him to provide fodder for a player who had already torched his team twice. The only other time D'Antoni got caught making an off the cuff comment that got jumped on significantly-- his characterization of Jordan Hill as a "bad rookie" -- made perfect sense when you saw him speak and understood the context behind his remarks (in short, Hill didn't deserve playing time. And he wasn't wrong, frankly). The Rondo quote was worse. I don't know if Rondo heard the coach's words before the game, but it wouldn't surprise me if Rondos' jumpshots were just a bit more accurate last night because of that motivation.

Bad form, Mike. Hope it was simply a bad joke, and not a sign of the pressure coming down on you.

******************************************************

And with that, two months of lengthy late night recaps tracking one of the most interesting Knick teams in years is done. I'll appreciate having a bit more sleep, and being able to watch the rest of the playoffs without tracking every possession and watching game sequences multiple times. (I'd happily do it for the Knicks to still be in the playoffs, but maybe next year...). Thanks to all who came by to read through all the words and obsessiveness, and I'll be back to post on things as the offseason heats up with many unresolved questions (Billups, Walsh, D'Antoni, the draft, etc).

More great reading on the Knicks: Jack McCallum and Zach Lowe weigh in with extremely reasonable pieces.

Game 3: Celtics 113 Knicks 96 - All Fall Down

BK — Sat, 23 Apr 2011 06:08:00 GMT

Getty Images

The Celtics flexed their muscles, simplified their offense, and took it right at the Knicks from the beginning in Game 3, like a championship team should. The Knicks hoped they could stand up to the Celtics the way they did the first two games, riding an incredible wave of energy from a hyped up MSG crowd watching their first playoff game in seven years.

Instead, the Knicks were severely lacking in the energy, talent, and muscle departments. Not only did they have to play with a sub-optimal Amare Stoudemire (pulled back muscle), but the entire Knick team may as well have been playing with pulled muscles. They looked a bit overwhelmed by the moment, and even when they regained their bearings after a rough start, they couldn't get critical breaks or overcome the talent and experience deficit that finally imposed itself on a game in this series.

The tough start for the Knicks came down to some nerves, and a clearly hobbled Stoudemire and slumping Landry Fields. Amare missed his first two drives to the basket (neither one had any real lift), and on defense, he got caught on defensive switches on Pierce three different times that led to jumpers. Fields opened up with two more tentative shots (in a series full of them) and had a turnover that led to immediate Boston points. Even when the Knicks were able to force Celtic misses, another unfortunate trend established itself: loose balls or rebounds recovered by Rondo that led to three pointers while the Knick defense was out of position.

The Knicks fell behind by 22-5 before starting a comeback against a Celtic bench that continues to struggle and help the Knicks get back in games. Anthony Carter, Shawne Williams, Bill Walker, Jared Jeffries and Anthony managed to knock ten points off the lead to get the deficit down to seven by the end of the first quarter. In the second quarter, the Knicks got the lead down to five (with opportunities to get it down further) several times, and the Celtics turned the ball over frequently enough to give the Knicks hope that they might make this another close game.

Those critical offensive rebounds mentioned earlier really hurt the Knicks in the second period, though; two Rondo rebounds led to two Ray Allen three pointers (one of which drew Toney Douglas' third foul, which hurt the Knicks' ability to hustle for boards and loose balls in the half even more). The Celtics managed to stiff arm the Knicks' best efforts at a comeback, and they maintained an eight point lead at the half.

Even with the energy and execution of the Knick starters being subpar in the first half, and the Celtics establishing control of the boards, there was reason to believe the Knicks could come back in the second half -- the deficit was manageable, and both teams were sloppy (12 assists/14 turnovers for the Celtics, 9 assists/11 turnovers for the Knicks in the first half). But in the third quarter, the Celtics went right at a big Knick defensive weakness (their ability to maintain defensive shape and awareness when navigating screens) with a simple 2-3 floppy action (Pierce and Allen setting screens for each other in the paint with Garnett and O'Neal just outside the block setting a second screen for one or both wings to use).

Both Doc Rivers and Rondo in the post-game press conference said that they needed to simplify the offense, with Rondo saying that the Cs essentially ran one set the entire second half. That set -- the Pierce/Allen screen action and variations off of it -- tortured the Knicks. Not only did Pierce and Allen get good looks, but the extra attention they drew from multiple Knick defenders freed up Garnett, O'Neal and even Rondo for easy baskets as well. Additionally, the Celtics wound up their defense on the Knicks so that Anthony and Stoudemire were funneled into a defensive wall in the paint, and Douglas and Fields continued to struggle with creating anything from the perimeter.

The Celtics cut their turnovers down to six in the second half; the Knicks had seven turnovers in the third quarter alone. Douglas struggled so much on defense with the Celtic screens and managing the Knick offense that he was replaced with Roger Mason after the Celtic lead ballooned to 21 at 77-56. The Knick reserves again managed a couple of mildly spirited runs to get the lead down to 14 after it had got as large as 23 (forcing the return of the Celtic starters, the only thing resembling a victory the Knicks could claim all night), but the Celtics quickly got the lead back up, led by Rondo, Rondo and more Rondo. His triple double of 15 points, 20 assists, and 11 rebounds was a gaudy statistical summary of the damage inflicted by the Celtics on the Knicks and their flickering hopes for competitiveness in this series.

Game Notes:

* Amare: Hurting the Team More on D Than Helping on O?: The coaches had a real dilemma once it became apparent that Amare's offensive contributions were going to be limited, if not irrelevant: should they play him so that he could at least draw attention on offense and free up opportunities for his teammates, at the risk of his defense hurting the team even more? I think Amare had to at least play in the first half to see if he could loosen up with some game action and make an impact, but in the second half, I might have been tempted to sit him and go with Shawne Williams instead.

Amare ended up with 7 points on 8 shots and a horrific -34, even though (according to ESPN Stats) he had touches on only 20 percent of possessions while he was in the game. He was an extreme defensive liability against a Celtic offense running on high octane, and compared to Game 1, it was clear he was moving with extreme pain. It is tough for a coach to tell his best player that he's hurting the team, but if Amare is similarly hobbled in Game 4, his minutes should be curtailed and the dice should be rolled with the role players, whatever the consequences.

* Carmelo Gets Locked Down: Carmelo came down significantly from this 42 point effort in Game 2, and nobody should have been surprised. The Celtics were caught off guard in Game 2 by the unusual lineups the Knicks ran out with the absence of Stoudemire and Billups, but with two days of preparation, they were able to gear their defense in Game 3 toward limiting Melo's opportunities. The most successful adjustment the Celtics made was to keep Rondo closer to Melo on several possessions to limit his ability to get off three pointers and to disrupt his drives; when Melo attempted to post up, Garnett and Jermaine O'Neal kept an eye on him as well to limit his spins toward the basket.

Melo played quite a bit of point forward in the second and third quarters, partially by design, partially because of Douglas' foul trouble and Carter's limitations as an orchestrator of efficient offense. Melo had some very good assists but also turned the ball over frequently (6 assists/5 turnovers for the game), an indication of how hurt Amare was (two different Melo passes to him at the elbow were bobbled and Amare could barely bend to retrieve them) -- but also an indication of how keyed in the Celtic defense was to every move Melo made.

On defense, Melo's bad habits contributed to Amare being exposed -- if Amare is moving poorly, Melo needs to fight harder through screens to close out on shooters instead of calling for a switch at the first opportunity. Two of Pierce's jumpers were a result of the "quick wave" Melo is infamous for on defense.

* Douglas/Turiaf/Fields Fall Short: I mentioned in my notes prior to the start of the series that Douglas and Turiaf, in particular, would be two of the most crucial role players for the Knicks. They were both disappointing beyond even what i would have expected against a superior opponent like the Celtics Turiaf continues to deal with various nagging injuries that limit him to one or two good games in succession before his body betrays him, and that may be what happened last night, as he picked up two fouls quickly and never came close to making the impact he did in Game 1.

The Celtics trapped Douglas more on offense, and he struggled to find the open man and missed receivers in transition consistently. Douglas' on-ball defense can be punishing, but he had it rough for a second game in a row with off-ball defense trying to manage the low block screens the Celtics run.

As far as Fields, everyone knows his head is in a bad place now. Anthony's arrival obviously affected his game, but in this playoff series, he is missing the simplest opportunities, and he's pressing so badly he can't even make free throws. Yet he remains the only wing that can really guard Ray Allen with some modicum of effectiveness with his length. He should still get some minutes off the bench, but he should not start in Game 4.

* Shawne Williams/Jared Jeffries - Game 3's Best Knicks: It's weird to point to two reserves who would barely get playing time on other rosters, but they were both very good and kept the Knicks in the game. Williams, in particular, had extreme confidence in his shot and attacked at every opportunity. Jeffries took a few too many shots and predictably got groans from the crowd for a couple of overambitious layups, but he looked to make things happen and had a particularly good spell of his trademark "one-man help" defense in the second quarter. The Celtics did adjust to Jared's loose defense on Rondo and tendency to help on other Celtics by having Rondo crash the boards, which as noted earlier was one of the biggest difference makers in the game.

* New Coach Next Year?: This is a discussion I have little appetite for on my best days, as I've always felt coaches get a little too much credit and blame for small things perceived to have seismic impact, when the execution of the players on the floor is far more impactful. But it seems to be all-consuming for many fans seeking a scapegoat for how things have progressed in this series -- despite the fact that many picked the Celtics in five or six (at most), and that's with a fully healthy Knick roster.

My position has always been that Coach D'Antoni can't be fairly evaluated with all the changes and injuries that have made continuity with this roster a near impossibility for the last two months (and last three years), and that he should be retained for next year. And frankly, I find a lot of the nitpicking criticism of his tactical decisions overblown, inconsistent, and frequently rooted in misconceptions of his coaching style (If Doc Rivers' sparkling playbook had been magically gifted to the Knick coaches in the closing seconds of Game 1 and 2, they still would have had to deal with the reality of multiple end-of-bench players on the floor). There are some legitimate discussions to be had about how this team will evolve in the off-season, and where/whether the coach fits in the long term vision, which I plan to eventually write about.

In the meantime, there's a simple reality: the Celtics are a much better team, and speculating that things could be radically different if Corey Brewer were on this team or if Shelden Williams got more minutes doesn't really do much to alter the facts on the ground. But I'll acknowledge one reality: a Celtic sweep (which now looks very likely) does make it easier for Knick management to throw Walsh and D'Antoni out and start over with a different GM/coach combo in the name of "moving forward". Again, i don't think this is the wise path, but it does become a more distinct possibility which will gain traction and volume from the tabloids and drive by columnists. I can say I don't care or don't believe anything will happen, but the noise level will certainly rise in the next week, and bears watching.

Next game is for pride on Easter Sunday, and there's no hope that things will change much for the Knick roster with Amare at far less than 100 percent and Billups still out. I would love to see one last burst of effort and a more competitive game to reward New York fans for the support they've given the team, and to provide another marker for the positive direction the team is taking...even if the Knicks may be destined to go without a playoff win for their 11th straight year.

Game 2: Celtics 96 Knicks 93 - Fantastic Effort Ends In Frustration, Again

BK — Wed, 20 Apr 2011 06:20:00 GMT

Every Knick fan has looked forward to the team and at least one of its stars putting forth an effort like last night, on a playoff stage so unfamiliar to New York in recent years. Carmelo Anthony had 42 points, and almost every one of his baskets represented a lifeline as the Knicks constantly flirted with being run out of Boston. Role players that had no business playing major minutes in a playoff game scrapped their rear ends off, making clutch baskets when the ball came their way or hustling after rebounds and loose balls when their shots wouldn't fall.

It's a bittersweet feeling when all that protean scoring and the miles of effort yield a familiar ending, when fans are left drenched in total frustration from witnessing the brief lapses in judgement, mental errors, and the other team simply executing a bit better. Moral victories are especially thin straws to clutch at during the playoffs, where each loss puts your team that much closer to the edge of a cliff, where the judgment of everything the players and coaches do is that much harsher when the final result is not a win.

But the Knicks did a lot right when the odds were against them all game, without Chauncey Billups and Amare Stoudemire, without a functional Landry Fields (whose confidence looks shot despite the team's efforts to get him going). That's three starters who either didn't play or played very weak minutes last night. (If the rumors of Turiaf being hurt late in last night's game are true, that would be four starters, as Turiaf sat out of most of the critical final quarter). As Marv Albert put it wryly on the TNT broadcast as the television cameras surveyed the players on the court and then the Knick bench, "looks like it's Carmelo and four guys".

Carmelo and four guys came within 19 seconds of pulling it off. And it was an inspiring sight against a heavily favored team on its home court, even if the ending was another frustrating letdown.

Game Notes:

* Rondo vs Douglas: Massive Mismatch: A few pundits expected that Douglas starting in place of the injured Billups might be a blessing in disguise for the Knicks, who would (supposedly) give the Celtics fits with his more tenacious defense....and they were wrong. Anyone familiar with Douglas' strengths and weaknesses understands that Douglas on Rondo is probably the worst matchup for the Knicks. Toney is all about relentless ball pressure full court, fighting through screens, and swiping at the ball from behind and causing turnovers when his man gets past him. This works well with more deliberate guards that like to shoot behind screens; it's a disaster against Rondo, who's best defended at a healthy distance and who chews up ball pressure like Douglas' without a second thought.

Rondo shot 6 of 8 in the first quarter and met zero resistance from TD, who waved him by frequently in transition for fear of picking up early fouls, then proceeded to pick up two quick fouls anyway. Douglas was so flustered by Rondo's early scoring (and was perhaps overwhelmed by having to carry the team in only his 2nd playoff game) that he had a brutal first half, missing six of eight shots and handing out only one assist.

Toney was better in the second half and had some big baskets (including two big three pointers) that kept the team in the game. Rondo continued to punish him the entire second half though -- he also generated the crucial turnover with 1:30 left (stealing the ball from Douglas from behind after a handoff from Bill Walker, a move that's TD's specialty) that enabled the Celtics to gain the lead (and momentum) back.

If the Knicks are going to make this a series when they return to NY, they have to find a way to keep this guard matchup a lot less lopsided.

* Melo Rescuing the Knicks, Over and Over: Anthony actually had a bit of a rough start against the Celtics defense, but after the Knicks fell behind early at 23-13, he went to work against Jeff Green, scoring six points on two three point plays sandwiched around an Anthony Carter jumper to get the first quarter Celtic lead down to 23-21. He ended the first half with a driving dunk, an 18 foot jumper and an assist to Jeffries to keep the Knicks tied with the Celtics at the half at 44-44.

And after the Knicks fell behind 74-63 and seemed ready to be put away by the Celtics, he converted a tough jumper and drew a last second foul (making two FTs) to end the third quarter, He then scored the first seven points of the fourth quarter, assisted Turiaf on a pick and roll. then made another tough fade away jumper to give the Knicks the lead at 78-76, which set the stage for the final seven and a half minutes of drama.

it would have been an amazing performance if it had been with the regular Knick lineup. The fact that he made it happen with such a shorthanded Knick group was extremely impressive and a marvelous turnaround from the previous game's terrible shooting. Anthony also played point forward for significant minutes in the third and fourth quarter and did a fine job of finding his teammates when the opportunity presented itself.

* Jared Jeffries: Before the Final Play, the Knicks' Co-MVP: The final play -- a weak Jeffries pass that was intercepted by Garnett -- will get all the play in the morning news stories, a shame because prior to that, Jared was as important as any Knick not named Carmelo. On defense, he rotated crisply, he was the most effective defender on Rondo, he took turns guarding Pierce and Big Baby Davis and Garnett and O'Neal (the only member of the Celtic starting five he didn't guard was Ray Allen), and he even made several layups off of assists from teammates. He had four offensive rebounds and a couple of other taps/deflections that were a part of the Knicks' amazing 42 percent offensive rebound rate.

A small example of what he did to keep the Knicks in the game that didn't show up in the box score: in the fourth quarter, Rondo ran some pick and roll action with Garnett in three successive sequences, and Toney Douglas had trouble with it every time and seemed to cross signals with Turiaf on coverage. When Jeffries entered the game for Turiaf, the play was defended more effectively, with Jeffries smothering Rondo after he came off the screen for an attempted layup, but taking away his passing angle back to Garnett as well.

* Crazy Lineups That Never Played Together, But Played With Trust: A national television audience saw much more of players like Shawne Williams, Roger Mason and Anthony Carter than they ever expected they would, thanks to all the Knick injuries. The lineup that played the most minutes in the fateful fourth quarter -- Mason, Jeffries, Walker, Douglas and Anthony -- had never played as a five man unit together prior to last night, and yet they had to somehow gel and stay in the game against the Celtics.

The most impressive part of the final quarter was how a lot of the scoring was not through isolations or pounding it into Carmelo (though there were definitely a few iso sequences), but through the offense flowing the way it has since the trade, except without Stoudemire and Billups. In some sets, Anthony handled the ball, dribbled around screens, and found cutters or open shooters; in other cases, Douglas probed the defense and took advantage of the Celtics' attention to Anthony to find seams or drive baseline and find Mason for an open three pointer. And when it all broke down, the team got five offensive rebounds in the quarter.

D'Antoni's overall sense of who to play and when to play them largely worked well considering he didn't have much to work with at all -- for example, despite the PG issues, he wasn't tempted to play Anthony Carter too many minutes, which I felt was wise (Carter provided good minutes, but his propensity for turnovers threatened to give the Celtics an opportunity to blow the game open). And while some felt Bill Walker got too many minutes considering his 0-11 shooting night and some hideous lapses on both ends, the decision to play him in place of Shawne Williams in the fourth quarter was defensible.

Playing Roger Mason was a head-scratcher at first, but it may have been the most sneaky-inspired choice, given his previous playoff experience (even with that one really ugly three point miss after a steal). The only non-move I wondered about was not giving Turiaf more minutes in place of Jeffries, especially since Turiaf's post defense may have been a better option on Garnett in the closing seconds. Additionally, on that final Knick possession Turiaf might have been surer with the ball and laid it in -- or Turiaf could have set screens that freed Douglas or Anthony for a clean jumper. But Turiaf may have been hurt anyway, and if you watch the final Knick play, Jeffries actually sets outstanding screens to set up Carmelo for receiving the pass.

The Knicks shot 32 percent through three quarters, but the lineup that never played together shot 10-22 in the final quarter, had 12 rebounds and 3 assists and put up 26 points against the Celtics. D'Antoni is receiving a lot of grief for the late game execution of the team the first two games, but consider how well and how hard his team of Anthony plus retreads played and executed in the final quarter to come back and make it a game in the first place.

* The Final Play: I agree with Sebastian of NBA Playbook on this one -- the final play was a reasonably executed one, and if Jeffries looks to the rim immediately (as he showed he could do on three previous layups), he had an opportunity to score against a late Garnett rotation. I don't think Melo had anything but a terribly forced shot to take -- the only thing I might have liked to see in hindsight is Jeffries screening off Davis as he rolls to the lane, to delay or impede his double team of Melo. The slight opening provided by a bump or screen might have been enough for Melo to get a good shot off against Pierce. Alternatively, Melo could have swung the ball over to Mason for an open shot, but his passing angle in that direction was not that good.

Game three is on Friday, meaning a much needed spell of rest for the team. Friday at MSG is going to be fun to watch, though I have definite fears that the Celtics are going to wake up from their subpar play the first two games and put the hammer on the Knicks at home if the injuries continue to be an issue. Last night was a fantastic effort, but it was just one game. The Knicks can build from the effort and fight they showed, but it won't count for much if they don't improve some basic things (shooting, passing) and get some players back.

Celtics 87 Knicks 85: Fire Dies Out At The End

BK — Mon, 18 Apr 2011 05:26:00 GMT

(Programming Note: This will be a quick recap because I'm currently traveling; I'll be back in time for Game 2 with my regular account)

This has been the most amazing weekend of early NBA playoff action that I can remember...ever. The top 2 seeds in the West fell in dramatic first game upsets at home. The third seed was taken to the wire. In the East, the top two seeds won but were also taken to the bitter end. The fourth seed was beaten convincingly by a fifth seed some people thought would be swept.

The Knicks played along with the script and gave the third seed Boston Celtics everything they could handle. Despite a stiflingly slow halfcourt pace that seemed to play to the Celtics' strengths more than the Knicks', New York hung with Boston for the first quarter after early foul trouble on Carmelo Anthony, then tightened the defensive screws several notches in the second quarter. They turned the Celtics over six times and held them to 15 points in the second period, while scoring 28 points. led by the shooting of Stoudemire and Anthony. Ball movement was also superb in the second quarter with eight assists.

The first half was very similar to the game at MSG in March, where the Knicks also built a double-digit halftime lead, but the Knick bench drove that lead over the hapless Celtic reserves during a game when both teams were coming off a back to back. The Knick reserves provided some surprisingly good minutes in Game 1 as well, but the 12 point halftime lead was the result of the Knick starters taking it to the Celtic starters, and demonstrating some extremely strong, physical defense anchored by Turiaf. They held the Celtics to 41 percent shooting, blocked 4 shots and committed only 7 fouls (3 in the second quarter).

The Celtics continued borrowing from the script of the March game by re-focusing themselves after halftime and turning up the defensive intensity. Their offense didn't get that much better (8-22 FGs, 3-6 FTs, and four more turnovers), but in the last part of the third quarter especially, they started generating more points off of futile Knick possessions. Billups (0-4 FGs, including 3 missed three pointers) and especially Anthony (1-8 FGs) went very cold, and occasionally exhibited the kind of shaky shot selection that's characterized their bumpy transition with the Knicks the last month.

Two plays saved the Knicks toward the end of the quarter: 1) a trap forced by Anthony Carter and Jared Jeffries on Ray Allen at the sideline that resulted in a steal and fastbreak tip by Jeffries of an Anthony missed layup in transition and 2) a Shawne Williams corner three pointer to keep the third quarter lead at five at 64-59.

The Knicks went scoreless for the first three minutes of the fourth quarter as the Celtics put together seven straight points to take the lead, at which point D'Antoni went with a quicker hook on his reserves (bringing in Anthony and Billups with 9 minutes left rather than at the 6-7 minute mark). Amare started taking the team on his back with eight straight points to give the Knicks back the lead, the most encouraging sign in a game full of encouraging signs that the Knicks could take some body blows from the Celtics and stay in the game.

Despite the Celtics showing more signs of life on offense (led by Pierce and Allen, who was more comfortable getting looks against the defense of Toney Douglas than he was against Landry Fields), the Knicks got big baskets from Billups and Amare to get the lead up to four points with just under three minutes left. The possession the Knicks would love to have back came after Amare blocked an Allen layup, then drove the lane and passed it off to Douglas but couldn't control his forward momentum and ended up committing a charge -- Douglas had a three taken away that would have made it a seven point lead at 85-78 with 2:15 left.

The final two minutes were filled with the sort of drama that the tabloids will make much hay of this morning -- two Anthony turnovers (the second a controversial offensive foul), two missed Anthony three pointers (the first one basically all the way down before spinning out), a Douglas three pointer that seemed to provide breathing room, and two superb pieces of late game Celtic execution that gave them the final heartbreaking win.

Game notes:

* Look beyond the marquee names that mud-wrestled throughout this slow-paced, less than totally beautiful game, and you'll see that Turiaf and Jermaine O'Neal provided fantastic and opportunistic plays on both sides of the ball for their teams. Turiaf provided nearly enough for the Knicks to steal this win, especially with his defense on Garnett and his screens and off the ball movement on offense. O'Neal was the one that made it possible for the Celtics to survive - he drew at least two charges (including that crucial one on Amare noted earlier), had 12 points and 4 blocked shots, and had a crucial putback to tie the game at 82 and set up the final finish.

* It's not unusual for Carmelo to start off hot, tail off slightly, and then make a few big plays toward the end when he is on his game. He started Game 1, though, like he did the last game against the Celtics at MSG, with an over-aggressive foul in the first two minutes, eventually getting into foul trouble early, which set up the evening for the kind of shooting display devoid of any positive rhythm after the second quarter. Despite that, I did not think either of his last two three point attempts were terrible (especially the one that spun in and out), but this was clearly not one of his good nights and he's going to take a good media flogging for it, especially since...

* ...His fellow star Amare was absolutely radiant in the fourth quarter. Knick fans have seen a very diminished, beat up Stoudemire the last month of the season, and every time he drives against a capable defense lately, I half expect the shot to be blocked or come up short if he doesn't get a clear step on his defender. Last night, though, he was in full on superhero mode, with deadly long jumpers, a you-had-to-see-it-twice spin move and a dunk over Garnett and O'Neal. He did have two turnovers in the closing minutes as the Celtics keyed on him harder, but the way he took the team on his back was a great sign of the leadership he craved from the time he came to New York.

* The offensive foul called on Carmelo with 21 seconds left and the Knicks up 85-84 was a head-scratcher, and I truly do not like complaining about officiating. I've watched Anthony enough with the Nuggets and Knicks to know that sometimes he will have a call like this go against him because of how aggressively he plays. And to be fair, a call like this is more likely to go against him when he struggles like he did in the second half last night. Nevertheless, it was the sort of hand combat that is usually let go when the offensive player doesn't gain an extreme advantage, and Melo did not. I don't blame the loss on the foul, but when you saw Garnett get away with a trip on Douglas on the screen that freed Allen on his game winner, you had to wonder about consistency.

* The decision to go with Douglas for extended minutes in the second half along with Billups (before Billups got hurt) was, I think, a mostly good one, especially since Douglas contributed positive plays on offense down the stretch. It looked like Fields would get the bulk of the time over Douglas with his extremely good defense on Ray Allen in the first half, but Landry dug his own grave by missing 3 shots at the start of the second half when the Celtics were rallying, and looking very much like a rookie in doing so -- he had zero confidence on offense.

With Billups' unfortunate injury, Fields may end up getting his minutes back in Game 2, and it's worth considering that Allen did most of his damage (scoring 16 of his 24 points on 6 of 11 FGs, including 3 of 5 three pointers) after Fields left the game. Douglas simply isn't as imposing a defender on Allen with the size he gives up.

* Speaking of Billups' injury, I fear that if he's truly done for the series, the Knicks may have to wait another year to win their first playoff game. I think the Knicks have enough pride to try and gut it out for a win in New York without him, but I'm not sure Douglas and Carter can really run an offense for 48 minutes against an elite defense like the Celtics' and expect to have much success.

Next game on Tuesday and it will be time for the bench to deliver even more meaningful minutes with Billups' likely absence. Amare's words in the post game press conference were voiced in a calm and positive manner, so let's hope the Knicks don't hang their heads and try and maintain the fight they showed in the first game.

Knicks vs Celtics 2011: Playoff Thoughts and Concerns

BK — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 19:58:00 GMT

Getty Images

The New York Knicks are about to take their next step into relevance with their first playoff appearance in seven years, starting Sunday. They are going to be facing a team with far more playoff experience, more talent, and a lineup that overall matches up well to blunt the Knicks' strengths and exploit their weaknesses. Even with injury issues, aging veterans, and player chemistry concerns that mirror the Knicks' after a similarly disruptive trade (moving Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson to the Thunder for Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic), the Celtics are considered heavy favorites to flip the switch and put away the Knicks.

I'm not really good at setting up anticipation for grand predictions, so I'll give away the punchline at the beginning: my sense of how the series will go doesn't deviate much from conventional wisdom regarding the Knicks' chances, which are modest. The few scenarios I've seen proposed where the Knicks can actually win the series come from a pot of gumbo that mixes catchphrases like "the Celtics are old" and "superstars raise their game in the playoffs" -- an allusion, presumably, to the potential of Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire to take it up a notch in this series, while glossing over the possibility that the Celtics' superstars can do the same thing (and have done the same thing for the last 3 years).

I've looked at a lot of numbers before and after the trade, watched a bunch of video on the key players on offense and defense, and re-watched the one game these two teams played approximately a month after the trade deadline, when the Celtics won 96-86 in NY after being behind for most of the game. Both teams have had an especially difficult March trying to incorporate new players and dealing with the bumps and bruises that come late in an NBA season. There are signs of hope that the Knicks, with a few tweaks and a reasonably elevated level of play, can make this series extremely competitive. But it's just as likely that a higher level of play from 3 of the Celtics' Big 4 will be too much for the Knicks.

A fair number of outstanding previews and analyses of both teams are already out there, almost too many to be able to link to all of them. Apart from all the Knick and Celtic blogs, I would start with NBA Playbook's detailed breakdown and Basketball Prospectus (subscription required), and John Schuhmann's lineup analysis at NBA.com is superb. NBA.com also has a very impressive playoff page for each series, including a lot of graphs featuring numbers from Synergy Sports. Here's one of my favorite charts, which provides the perfect visualization of the contrasts between the two teams' styles of play -- highly ranked offense vs top ranked defense:

Source: Synergy Sports

In the process of trying to convince myself that the Knicks can exert some serious pressure on the Celtics in this matchup, these were the questions and issues that stood out for me:

* Can The Post-Trade Flaws Can Be Addressed Short-Term In A Playoff Series?: It's been documented heavily (including on this blog numerous times) how much the trade for Anthony gutted the Knick roster and made ithe team considerably smaller and less versatile defensively. The team was not a defensive powerhouse pre-trade, but Wilson Chandler's ability to guard power forwards and Gallinari's ability to guard wings are sorely missed, not to mention Felton's capable defense on opposing guards. Having Billups, Anthony, and Stoudemire as primary perimeter and interior defensive options has not only crippled the defense, but less size has also resulted in poorer rebounding.

The Synergy numbers below show the difference in how the team ranked in defending different types of plays prior to the trade, and what their final rank for the regular season is (rankings based on Points Per Possession given up relative to the rest of the teams in the NBA):

DEFENSE	% of Plays	Knicks Pre-Trade Rank	Knicks Season Rank

Overall	100%	16	21

Isolation	13	21	24
P&R Ball Handler	11	19	12
Post Up	11	13	20
P&R Man	4	30	22
Spot Up	17	28	28
Off Screen	4	15	12
Hand Off	2	17	18
Cut	7	9	14
Offensive Rebound	6	16	21
Transition	12	6	14

The Knicks were one of the very worst teams at defending spot up jumpers even before the trade, but were surprisingly decent at defending transition and cuts efficiently, and were average when it came to post ups. Getting smaller and having poorer defenders on the floor since the trade means the Knicks' performance in these areas dropped notably relative to the rest of the league.

Against the Celtics, the Knicks can't be expected to get bigger or much better defensively all of a sudden, but the good news is that the availability of Shaquille O'Neal still seems to be questionable for at least the early part of the series, and Jermaine O'Neal will be more of a defensive presence than someone who will put pressure on the Knicks offensively. Garnett, on the other hand, will continue to be a problem scoring inside against the Knicks and in transition, as he's done all year (I'll have more to say on this a little later). Containing the damage KG does is extremely important, on top of containing Pierce and Rondo and Allen on the perimeter. Huge challenge, to say the least.

As far as the Knick offense, the implications of the Synergy rankings of Knick efficiency pre and post trade are also interesting:

OFFENSE	% of Plays	Knicks Pre-Trade Rank	Knicks Season Rank


Overall	100%	7	4

Isolation	13	5	5
P&R Ball Handler	12	14	6
Post Up	5	1	2
P&R Man	6	4	6
Spot Up	23	6	9
Off Screen	3	3	6
Hand Off	6	11	8
Cut	6	10	17
Offensive Rebound	6	12	15
Transition	14	24	16

The Knicks already ran a healthy dose of isolation plays with Amare before the trade, but they've become a bit more dangerous and arguably better equipped for playoff games (where the action becomes half-court oriented) with two very good isolation scorers. They've also improved their points per possession from pick and roll plays where the ballhandler takes the shot. This is a double edged sword though, because what it means is that Billups and Douglas are settling for more jumpshots behind the pick, and hitting the roll man less. The team's ranking on spot up opportunities has dropped, not a surprise given that the Knicks shipped out many good shooters in the trade, and have talented but streaky scorers in their place now taking the same jumpers.

One result that's a pleasant surprise is how the team's efficiency in transition has improved, given that Billups isn't necessarily fond of pushing the ball (relative to Ray Felton before him). Some of this can be accounted for by the fact that Billups and Anthony are better at drawing fouls on the break and like to shoot transition threes -- Carmelo in particular has had some hot streaks shooting threes as the trailer in recent games.

The Celtics are going to bring down the Knicks' productivity in a lot of these offensive areas because their defense is so good, which means isolations may turn out to be an even bigger part of the offense in the series. I expect the Knick coaches will install some small wrinkles to get cutters open at least early in the games, because the Celtics showed in their last game against the Knicks that they can be vulnerable to cutters when they load up high on Amare and Carmelo, and the help defenders cheat toward the corner shooters. But this late in the season, any wrinkles will be minor and probably won't be a factor in crunch time possessions.

In summary, in a worst case scenario, the Knick defense isn't likely to get better (even against an offense as poor as the Celtic offense the last month), and the Knick offense may bog down to pounding it into the primary scorers if the Celtics defense dictates things. If the coaches can control something in the few days of practice they have, it will be to make the offense more dynamic, through more cuts, more transition, more movement. Which places a lot of pressure on the point guard, which is the subject of the next point...

* Can Billups Make the "Quote-Unquote" System Hum?: An inordinate amount of attention has gone to Anthony as the source of the numerous issues the Knicks have had in gaining cohesion, but Billups may be the most reluctant carrier of the flame that is the D'Antoni system, as reported by no less than three different sources. (The best account comes from the Wall Street Journal's Kevin Clark). Billups has not been a malcontent at all -- but in his play, the decisions he makes on the court, the speed at which he chooses to run the offense, and his shot selection -- it's clear that he goes at his own pace and has a particular way he plays with Anthony that conforms less than perfectly with the way the coaches like the offense to go.

In fairness to him, his thigh injury set him back considerably, and the grueling March schedule along with Amare's ankle injury at the end of the season have made it near impossible for any substantial cohesion to develop between the three main stars over the last six weeks. It's gotten better, but now Billups has an opportunity to really carry the team, run the offensive game plan for a specific opponent, and leverage his playoff experience. Last year in the playoffs for Denver, things didn't go so well playing for a different coach in running what was most effective.

This year, Billups has to trust the coaches' game plan, distribute shots to both star teammates (and move the ball to others when the defense is skewed), and keep the pace up.

* Rondo May Be the Most Important Player In The Series: Knick fans and Celtic fans may be sniping at each other for the better part of the next two weeks, but this is one (very obvious, I know) point that both sets of fans can agree on. NBA fans are accustomed to Rondo heroics in the playoffs after watching him lead the Celtics fearlessly past the favored Cavs and then the Magic last year, and being a big part of the KG-less Cs the previous year fighting all the way to a seventh game vs the heavily favored Magic in the Eastern Conference Finals.

The Celtics' struggles in the month of March can be connected directly to Rondo's drop in scoring, shooting percentage, and ability to get to the line. (Zach Lowe summarizes Rondo's issues superbly here). Wondering why the Knicks had a 14 point first half lead in the last meaningful game between these teams? Rondo was invisible in the first half and the Celtic offense ground to a halt. Once he decided to start attacking in the second, the Knicks were on their heels.

The Knicks have tried, like other teams, to put bigger players on him, play off of him heavily and dare him to score, but when he is fully engaged, his impact even without scoring is phenomenal. During a crucial late possession in that March game, the Knicks resorted to putting Melo on Rondo in an attempt to protect Melo from his sixth foul. Rondo just drove around Melo and through Turiaf and Fields to score with ease.

Rondo seemed to have a nice recovery from his March blues with very good lines against the Spurs and the Sixers toward the end of the season, but he was a non-factor against the Bulls and Heat in back to back blowouts. Against the Knick defense in the playoffs, he's likely to get his mojo back; the Knicks' best chance, frankly, is for there to be some injury or other issue that keeps him down, because they don't have an answer for him when he's in peak form creating havoc on both ends of the floor.

(After writing the above, I found out that my points had been made more eloquently by Ben Rohrbach of Green Street in a must-read exchange with Seth of Posting and Toasting:

"Unless you believe the theory that he [Rondo] cries himself to sleep every night without Kendrick Perkins there to sing him a lullaby, there’s no concrete reason to believe he won’t flip the switch, too. In fact, he might actually be the switch."

* Amare Needs To Shift the Dynamics of HIs Matchup With Garnett: When casual fans express confidence about the Knicks' chances in this series, they will point to Stoudemire and Anthony matching (or even surpassing) Garnett and Pierce on the Celtics. In terms of raw scoring potential, there's is some merit to the argument -- two younger, more explosive scorers piling up points against old, tired legs -- but when you consider impact on both offense and defense, the Celtic stars have a more well rounded game.

Anthony, in my opinion, is playing well enough and is motivated enough to prove himself with his new team that whatever his issues, he can match Pierce, possibly even outplay him in one or two games. The Amare-KG matchup is the one that is more problematic for the Knicks. Again, a look at some Synergy comparisons of the two players on offense and defense:

OFFENSE	% of Plays	Stoudemire (PPP)	Rank	% of Plays	Garnett (PPP)	Rank


Overall	100%	0.98	116	100%	1.01	80

Isolation	31.6	0.86	91	4.4	0.76	157
Post-Up	12.2	1.1	14	29.4	1	27
P&R Man	10	1.13	30	15.3	1.03	59
Spot-Up	10.1	0.97	175	18.1	0.9	222
Off Screen	4.9	0.98	33	3	0.9	58
Cut	9.6	1.19	148	10.1	1.4	33
Offensive Reb	7	1.09	85	3.8	1.18	52
Transition	7.9	1.02	232	7.5	1.45	14

TOTAL PLAYS	1978			1041

DEFENSE	% of Plays	Stoudemire (PPP)	Rank	% of Plays	Garnett (PPP)	Rank


Overall	100%	0.96	365	100%	0.82	69

Isolation	22	0.89	227	28	0.87	203
Post-Up	36	0.92	180	17	0.7	27
P&R Man	8	0.9	51	10	0.44	1
Spot-Up	28	1.1	311	38	0.92	121

TOTAL PLAYS	691			489

A lot of numbers to look at, but let's highlight the big ones. On offense, Amare is an elite isolation and post-up scorer, and his rankings reflect that; he also has many more plays run for him. But Garnett is good in areas that can (and have) hurt the Knicks, particularly in their most recent encounter. Garnett runs the floor amazingly well given the miles on his knees, and several times in the March game vs the Knicks, he sprinted downcourt and either established prime post position or blew past everyone for a layup/dunk (once late in the game while Amare was, ahem, complaining about a call he didn't get).

And in the halfcourt offense, when Garnett gets the ball, he tends to overpower Amare, Turiaf or Jeffries. He's also a very good cutter and benefits from passes coming his way when the Celtic shooters are coming off of screens.

Defensively, Amare's numbers are about as dire as you would expect. I've lamented all season how he spends too much time hanging in the lane and running out too late to close on shooters properly; even when he's within reasonable distance of a perimeter player (usually on a switch), he contests weakly, usually because of fear of foul trouble. His spot up defense wasn't quite as bad the previous season in Phoenix -- watching video of his sequences, it appears he at least challenged shots with more vigor because he had other defenders backing him up and a proper center (Robin Lopez) beside him. With the Knicks, he loses track of his man more, or simply takes plays off (especially in the last six weeks as his legs have worn down).

KG's numbers are better and worse than I might have expected. He is the best at defending the pick and roll, and his post defense is almost as good. Age has diminished his effectiveness in defending isolations, and I was surprised to see how shaky he looked in running out on shooters in studying regular season video, but in fairness, expecting a 34 year old 7 footer to be closing out on shooters at an elite level may be unrealistic, even on a team as good defensively as the Celtics.

In the last two games the Knicks and Celtics played that mattered, Garnett didn't guard Amare until the fourth quarter, usually to avoid foul trouble. When they were matched up, KG managed to limit Amare's effectiveness -- the reverse couldn't be said. What should be a more even matchup or even one tilted in the more athletic and younger player's favor has gone the other way when these teams have played, even when Amare puts up good looking box score numbers.

I've been tough all year on Amare, but let me say this in his defense -- in the March matchup against the Celtics (the only one where he and Anthony both played), he really only got shots when Anthony was out of the game, otherwise Billups and Anthony dominated most of the late game possessions. The game was also played at a slow pace. Amare will need help from his teammates and the coaching staff in getting him more opportunities to really attack the Celtic defense through a quicker pace and leveraging his high scoring star teammate, rather than waiting his turn for an iso scoring opportunity or elbow jumper in a slow halfcourt game.

Garnett has had the advantage, and there's a reason he's one of the best defenders to ever play the game, but there's more that can be done to put pressure on him. Amare has to find a way to do that if this series is going to be a long one.

* Key Role Players - Douglas and Turiaf: I don't need to say too much more about Turiaf, as I've evangelized for him for the past few games, since he demonstrated he was healthy and could stay on the floor more than 15 minutes. It's worth noting, though, that in the March Knicks-Celtics game, he was a good defensive quarterback in his minutes on the floor. That role should continue in this series, and he will probably alternate on Garnett and Krstic and Jermaine O'Neal. There's a lot of talk of a "three-headed" center of Turiaf/Jeffries/Williams, but Turiaf will get the bulk of the minutes as long as he can stay out of foul trouble.

Douglas is crucial if the Knicks are going to win more than one game. His averages against the Celtics are notably below his season averages, and as noted in a previous post, his high pressure style isn't necessarily ideal for guarding a talented ballhandler but light offensive threat like Rondo. However, the Celtics are prone to turn the ball over, and Douglas' pressure applied a few minutes at a time to change the "looks" Rondo gets from the Knicks can be part of an effective defensive scheme. Additionally, Douglas is the best (if most inconsistent) shooter beyond the Knicks' "Big 3", and the Knicks need his three point shooting to allow for optimal spacing of the floor on offense. He may not do much in Boston given his lack of playoff experience, but he needs to at least come alive at home and shoot close to his (superior) home shooting averages.

**************************************************************

If you actually made it through this many words, you might wonder why I haven't mentioned Ray Allen and hardly mentioned Paul Pierce. I am trusting Anthony and Pierce to cancel each other out to some degree (perhaps dubious as Pierce has been a long-time Knick killer), and (even more dubiously) I'm trusting that Allen will be the Celtic that most shows his age. If he continues his inconsistent form and has at least one or two bad shooting games, the Knicks can steal a couple of games. If Ray Allen becomes vintage Ray and leaves a pile of bodies felled by the wrath of several dozen pindown screens, this may be an even shorter series than Knick fans fear.

Notes On the Final Regular Season Game (Scrimmage)

BK — Thu, 14 Apr 2011 17:00:00 GMT

There was a game played between the New York Knicks and Boston Celtics Wednesday night, but NO...it wasn't the start of the playoffs. Just a meaningless scrimmage that had less intensity than a summer league game, distinguished by Amare getting some (greater than expected) minutes to get some time on the court after missing the last three games with an ankle injury. Quick thoughts:

* Amare looked decent basketball-wise and completely healthy. If I were inclined to panic, I might make a note about how he looked more like the reduced elevation, tired Amare of the last 30 games...but it was probably all that bubble wrap around him that caused him to miss a dunk and go the paint very cautiously. Viewed in that light, it was kind of impressive to see him score the few times he went to the basket, and he had two effortless tip ins over the bench players the Celtics had out there. I expect he'll go harder in the practices before Game 1 and come out pretty amped on Sunday night.

* I had the Celtics announcers, and only Tommy Heinsohn, bless his soul, agonizes over the whistles in a game this meaningless and hands out his Tommy points. To his credit, by the second half even he gave up caring, and he ended up sharing stories about this early playing days, how much he used to make, and how he earned the grudging approval of his father for the success of his playing career. Also shared a story (that he apparently told Rondo) about what it's like to be a part of a game like the 1976 triple overtime playoff game against the Suns and how hard it is to get your adrenaline in control in a game of such intensity to do simple things like make free throws. Good times.

* Anthony Carter saw a younger, more banshee-like version of himself faced up against Avery Bradley, and ended up suffering for it. AC did have a George Gervin like finger roll in the third quarter that he launched from his hip that was extremely impressive (by AC standards).

* If there was anything remotely useful in watching a game like this, it's gettting a coaches' perspective on what it's like to judge players based on practice relative to the actual games, and how certain traits stand out. So while I've been a little hard on poor Landry Fields for some of his shot selection in the wake of the trade, in last night's scrimmage he still looked a step savvier and stronger than many of his teammates. Good for him.

* If Roger Mason makes any more appearances for the Knicks this year, it probably won't be a good sign (injury or ejection of other Knick guards, or a hellacious blowout).

* I caught this game on DVR, and truth be told, I stopped watching during the fourth quarter to watch what could be the final game at Arco Arena between the Lakers and Kings on live broadcast. Terrible game for three quarters, then it turned unforgettable and heartbreaking at the end...I mean really wrenching. Tom Ziller of Sactown Royalty summarizes it all beautifully.

I watched many late night League Pass games played by the Kings over the past two seasons, and though the team hasn't been good in a while, it was unmistakable how much the community loved the team. Some of my fondest League Pass memories involve Bill Walton doing play by play with the Kings announcers this season in his purple tie dyed Kings/Grateful Dead t-shirt. And I have even fonder memories of the Kings going back to the start of the decade with the Webber-Divac teams and their unforgettable playoff matches against the Lakers.

* I've watched all 164 Knick games over the past two seasons, a few several times, and dutifully looked at box scores, play by play logs, lineup variations, shot charts, etc. After last night's Knick game, I didn't bother with the box score or anything else, a first. Time for the playoffs!

Knicks-Celtics playoff preview coming tomorrow.

Bulls 103 Knicks 90: Temporary Reality Check

BK — Wed, 13 Apr 2011 05:57:00 GMT

For the first time since Mike D'Antoni became coach, the New York Knicks lost their final regular season home game, 103-90 to the Chicago Bulls. In the coach's first year, the Knicks beat the Nets by 29 at Madison Square Garden to end the season; last April, the Knicks beat the Wizards by 11 in the final home game.

The good news is that the team has moved past the glories of season-end blowouts of bad teams, and that there's a far more meaningful reward for home fans ahead: at least four playoff games in the next week, and possibly more if the team can find a way to overachieve and get a little extra from its stars and its role players.

Last night's loss was meaningless in the big picture, but it did represent an early reality check on what the Knicks will face when they play the Celtics (whose defense was crafted by Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau) and what will be needed to be truly competitive in those playoff games. The Bulls came to last night's game wanting to win badly, as they are still seeking home court advantage against the Spurs, and for a little extra motivation, the Knicks were the only team they hadn't beaten this season. (Also, Thibs doesn't believe in having his team take its foot off the pedal or tanking to give his starters some rest).

The Knicks did a very good job of matching the Bulls' intensity early, moving the ball (eight assists in the first quarter), spreading the floor, getting open looks, and having Carmelo get off to a good start. Even better, the bench continued its spirited play (post-Amare) for the third game in a row, outplaying the Bulls bench, one of the better second units in the league. Scoring 55 on the Bulls and shooting 56 percent overall (including 40 percent on three pointers) was excellent offense, and the defense was passable.

But in the third quarter, the Bulls did what elite teams do: adjust and tighten the screws on the Knicks' pet offensive options. Carmelo had every perimeter shot contested tightly, and whenever he drove at least one other defender collapsed on him while cutting off passing angles for him to find teammates. The other Knicks had their spot up jumpers and drives heavily contested as well, and even when they occasionally had a good look, they rushed it. In the first 7:20 of the third quarter, the Bulls outscored the Knicks 26-2 (!) to take a 21 point lead, led by MVP-to be Derrick Rose, Luol Deng, and Joakim Noah, and the quick and decisive way they delivered the hammer made the lead feel like 40 points.

The unlikely bench savior for the Knicks keeping the game manageable was Bill Walker, who along with Douglas, Jeffries, Carter and Shawne Williams fought very hard to get the deficit down to six points at 84-78, and continued to keep the Knicks within striking distance at 91-84 with 7:30 left in the game, forcing Rose and Boozer to return. Rose then made a three pointer to get the lead back up to ten, which more or less ended the rally (and the game). D'Antoni temporarily brought back Billups and Melo to presumably try and kick start another rally, but quickly came to his senses and removed them from the game after two minutes.

The loss represented the end of the Knicks' seven game winning streak, but though no loss is good, this was a "useful" loss in the sense that the coaches will have plenty to share with the players, particularly Anthony and Billups, since they control so many possessions. A big talking point will be how to avoid giving in to the temptation to force things against elite defenses that cut off your main options. Carmelo has had a fantastic scoring run during the winning streak, but in the second half last night he tried to do too much on his own and missed seven of his last nine shots. Billups missed all 3 of his shots and had only one assist in the second half. Landry Fields missed all four of his second half shots. Toney Douglas missed all five of his 3 pointers (though at least 3 of the looks were open).

Amare was healthy last night and looked fit to play, but the coaches wisely kept him out (especially wise given what happened to players like Noah, Ronnie Brewer and Andrew Bynum, even if their injuries end up being relatively minor). Having a healthy Amare back for the playoffs will give the Knicks more options and make it harder for the Celtics to focus their energy on Melo and Billups, and he will give the bench units more firepower.

Turiaf started last night (as I expected would eventually happen), and led a respectable defensive effort for the better part of three quarters, though like the rest of the team, he couldn't do much on the boards as the Knicks got killed 51-33. There were a few sequences where Rose singlehandedly cut up the Knick defense, but on the whole, I was pleased with how hard the Knicks worked to contain the damage Rose did in the halfcourt offense - the problem is that they allowed too many offensive rebounds after defending the initial attempt.

I'll have a preview of the Celtics series by the end of the week, but this game reinforced another obvious point that will be particularly germane to the playoffs: the need for a scoring option beyond the Billups-Melo-Amare triumvirate. Since the Knicks are unlikely to get more 15 point second halves from Bill Walker, Toney Douglas is going to have to be the player that (at least at home) can shoot better than 4-15 (and 1 for 7 on three pointers), as he did against the Bulls.

Tonight will be the last regular season game, at Boston against the Celtics in one of the most meaningless warm-ups for a playoff series, as it will exclusively be a battle of benches. The only suspense left in the NBA regular season at this point will be finding out what happens with the West playoff seeds, and when Game 1 of the playoffs will be played this weekend.